ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Glad they lowered the chances. I would expect further reductions in subsequent TWOs.

[gatorcane]

Looks really disorganized, 60% looks generous:

[AutoPenalti]

This may be a sleeper wave now.

[Stormybajan]

Looks really disorganized, 60% looks generous:

https://i.postimg.cc/FHW1DFM9/goes16-ir-95-L-202109162235.gif

The way its struggling you would think its July and not checks notes , Cape Verde peak season September 16th

[AlphaToOmega]

I still think this will develop. There is still strong model support.

[AlphaToOmega]

If this failed to develop, it would be an embarrassment to the GEFS and the ECENS. That is a big if

[IcyTundra]

I think it will develop, but it won't be very strong. It's going to have a window where it can develop and strengthen but I wouldn't expect anything more than a cat 2 before it runs into a more unfavorable environment due to the TUTT.

[AlphaToOmega]

It is a terrible idea to use satellite presentation to determine if a system will develop: what matters is what is under the hood. ASCAT almost shows a closed circulation.

[ElectricStorm]

It is a terrible idea to use satellite presentation to determine if a system will develop: what matters is what is under the hood. ASCAT almost shows a closed circulation.

But a TC is closed circulation AND strong convection. Not just a closed circulation. This hardly has any convection right now.

[cycloneye]

It is a terrible idea to use satellite presentation to determine if a system will develop: what matters is what is under the hood. ASCAT almost shows a closed circulation.

Do you have that ASCAT pass?

[Ubuntwo]

It is a terrible idea to use satellite presentation to determine if a system will develop: what matters is what is under the hood. ASCAT almost shows a closed circulation.

Do you have that ASCAT pass?

There is a 'closed' circulation down around 9-10N north.


The GFS resolved this exact feature well. It amplified/developed the north end of the wave axis, which is currently just an axis as it depicts.

[CyclonicFury]

Very elongated. 95L has a lot of work to do to ever become a TC.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

If we don’t have improving convection by tonight, this will either not develop at all, or it’ll wait until after the TUTT to develop like the CMC has been showing. The latter scenario is rather concerning because while there is an escape route thanks to 96L, this could get quite close to the Bahamas and/or Bermuda.

[GCANE]

Looks like there is some strengthening of 700mb vort.
925 mb vort seems to be consolidating a bit as well along 10N, SE of the 700mb vort.

[al78]

Another MDR system that is going to have issues developing seems like the trend ever since the 2018 season.

2018 had C2 Helene (almost a major in the eastern MDR), C1 Isaac and C1 Florence that became a C4 just north of the MDR boundaries. 2019 had C4 Lorenzo and C2 Jerry. 2020 had C4 Teddy. 2021 had C3 Larry. They definitely don't count as struggling to me, unless the comparison uses 2004/10/17 as baselines.

I'm also not sure if that's indeed a trend or just a coincidence of unfortunate random factors. 2018 had a developing El Nino, 2020 had a typhoon-induced TUTT, and 2021 had a weird cycle of intraseasonal signals. Especially 2020 and 2021 - these factors are pretty much out of control even with favorable conditions otherwise.

2018 looks to me like the MDR wasn't that great for tropical cyclones. Florence didn't get going until moving north into the sub-tropics. There were a couple of very short lived minimal hurricanes in the MDR itself, and one that recurved very far east, and the rest were weak tropical storms.

2019 is more difficult to judge because MDR storms curved north soon after forming, there were no systems tracking west for a long time. There were seven MDR storms, four of them didn't get past tropical storm strength, one didn't whilst in the MDR and strengthened near the Lesser Antilles, eventually becoming a devestating cat 5 landfall on the Bahamas. Only two storms reached hurricane strength in the MDR, and they were well on their way out of the MDR at that time. It looks to me that if anything had tracked due west towards the Caribbean sea, it would have been like 2020 and got ripped apart.

2020 had one cat 4 which formed in the MDR but didn't strengthen to a major until it was well north of the MDR. Aside from that one storm, there were a ton of systems that couldn't strengthen beyond tropical storm strength anywhere in the tropical Atlantic and either strengthened after moving into the Caribbean sea/Gulf, the sub-tropics, or went poof. It is fair to say the MDR last year was not favourable for tropical cyclones. There were far more hurricanes in the sub-tropics than the MDR last year.

Overall I would say it is fair to claim that MDR tropical cyclone development has been hampered since 2017. Looks like this year is going the same way. Larry is the one exception out of several systems that tracked across the MDR and couldn't get past tropical storm strength (again), and now we have a tropical wave which had a 90% chance of development at the peak of the season which has stubbornly refused to develop.

[GCANE]

Current GFS weakens the Virgin Island TUTT quite a bit and moves it north as the wave approaches.
Chances looking better for development in the Carib or Bahamas.

[jconsor]

Don't count out 95L yet. However chance of direct impacts to US remains low.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1438850948122693633




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1438854228441812995

[msbee]

Looks like I am in the cone again!

[aspen]

This may be trying to consolidate around 12.5-13.0N, based on visible/IR imagery. Let’s see if this keeps up.