ATL: PETER - Models

[Teban54]

Models continue to disagree on the evolution of 96L which seems to ultimately impact the fate of 95L.

The 00z Euro, 00z CMC and 00z ICON all agree on 96L stalling south of Atlantic Canada starting at 120 hours with pressure in the 990s. The strength and duration differ: CMC has 96L in that spot through 240 hours, while Euro has it stalling for only 24 hours, then moving SE and then SW while weakening. 00z ICON shows 96L stalling and intensifying through the end of its run at 180 hours; 06z ICON is weaker, but still has it moving slowly.
GFS is the only outlier in showing 96L quickly moving east, typically as a poorly organized system. This first started in the 12z run yesterday and has been consistent the last 4 runs.
However, ~70% of GEFS members stall 96L and moves it SE. Almost all EPS members do so.

Consequently, GFS is the only operational model that shows 95L surviving the TUTT and becoming a potent hurricane in the subtropics since 12z Sep 14, the same run that started the trend of 96L quickly moving out to sea. These 4 runs show 95L first becoming a hurricane east of Lesser Antilles, weakening slightly while crossing the TUTT, then reintensifying at 25N.
Euro, CMC and ICON, which have 96L stall, all try to kill 95L while crossing the TUTT (except 12z CMC yesterday, where 96L doesn't stall long enough and 95L intensifies again north of PR).
It should be noted that these models have 95L's vorticity travel further west. 0z Euro has it approaching the Carolinas while 0z CMC has it in the Bahamas towards Florida.

Ultimately, it seems like we will see some kind of low pressure system off the eastern seaboard at 240 hours. Whether that's 96L, 95L or the random Carolinas homegrown on the 6z GFS, we don't know.

[Spacecoast]

Last two ensemble runs...
GEFS:---6z a bit weaker than last night


ECENS: ---6z showing some signs of life compared to last few. Much higher latitude than others.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like 12z GFS takes its time to develop this, further North this run.

[aspen]

Looks like 12z GFS takes its time to develop this, further North this run.

Looks to be about the same track as the last several runs.

The late development until about 50W and the GFS’ intensification just north of the GAs followed by a sweep off of over the East Coast reminds me a lot of Floyd ‘99.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Looks like 12z GFS takes its time to develop this, further North this run.

Looks to be about the same track as the last several runs.

The late development until about 50W and the GFS’ intensification just north of the GAs followed by a sweep off of over the East Coast reminds me a lot of Floyd ‘99.

Definitely seems like the setup is different to Larry. We have a much stronger Bermuda high that'll prevent recurving until a closer approach to the East Coast or Florida.

[AutoPenalti]

Disorganized mess further E.

[SFLcane]

Gfs drops Bahamas low swings it back south to meet 95L.

Sure.

[SFLcane]

This basin is something else.

[AutoPenalti]

Bruh.

Last 3 runs.

[Kohlecane]

So at 210 the trough over the Midwest/S. Canada looks a lot weaker than the 6z,

[ElectricStorm]

Lol at trying to bring 96L south and develop it again that's not happening

[blp]

The Great Lakes low is zipping out of the way this time. I bet this one get's trapped.. or heads east.

EDIT: nevermind finds a weakness. Going to be close call.

[Kohlecane]

There's the trap at 240, but again this is still eye opening, 24 hours ago we were discussing the TUTT ripping this to a open wave from a TS in the NE CA, now were talking a strong Hurricane getting near the BA's and banking on the ridge building through the SE ???

[ElectricStorm]

I think the main takeaway from these runs is that if 95L gets through the TUTT and ends up north of the islands, we could be looking at a strong storm. Other than that we have know idea what it's going to to.

Now we wait for the next model runs...

[RevanTheJedi96]

There's the trap at 240, but again this is still eye opening, 24 hours ago we were discussing the TUTT ripping this to a open wave from a TS in the NE CA, now were talking a strong Hurricane getting near the BA's and banking on the ridge building through the SE ???

Yeah ngl I get frustrated with people that are so sure in the early, early stages of a storm about its fate.

[Category5Kaiju]

Perhaps the delay in 95L’s organization could actually help it in the long run?

[Kohlecane]

initiate fujiwara

[blp]

Meanwhile CMC much closer under developing ridge. Rapidly develops in Bahamas

[jlauderdal]

Perhaps the delay in 95L’s organization could actually help it in the long run?

Delay is more dangerous for the United States, development west of 60 is much more likely to cause big problems.

[ElectricStorm]

Just turned and obliterated Bermuda on this run