ATL: SAM - Models

[otowntiger]

Here's the 0Z euro 250mb chart at 240 hours. Looks to me like Florida and the gulf still out of play, or at least any storm will be significantly ripped up if it moves through that shear zone.

https://i.imgur.com/ll6VNWT.png

You can’t look at the Euro/CMC and say anyone is “out of play”…. High pressure is building back in to the north on both of those runs

Sure, fair enough, I was careless with the wording, and this run is different from the previous 0Z run. What I intended to say is not that Florida is out of play but the Euro is showing conditions that would rip any storm up. At 240 hours all this map represents is most likely what won't happen. This is different, in my opinion, from saying Florida is safe, it most certainly is not, but reading it back it looks like I'm calling the all clear.

Semantics aside I think what you said still makes lots of sense based upon the projected conditions in that particular model run at that particular period. If it were to verify as shown up to that point, we in Florida and the CONUS east coast in general would not have much to be worried about. Of course there are a ton of 'ifs' in that statement. I do think that given climo the chances of significant impact from 98L and whatever comes of it on the CONUS are very minimal as things stand now.

[SFLcane]

[kevin]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/SxqXQyw4/EDF08-C0-C-E1-C0-457-E-8-CDC-9-A659-A79179-B.gif

Also interesting to see how there's a split between the members that become strong soon (further north) and the ones that take a bit longer to develop (the large southern cluster). Unfortunately, it looks like 98L might still take a while to get going which would mean the more western tracks with a larger chance of land impacts might be more realistic.

[SoupBone]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/SxqXQyw4/EDF08-C0-C-E1-C0-457-E-8-CDC-9-A659-A79179-B.gif

Another CAG system showing up?

[gatorcane]

06Z GEFS:

[otowntiger]

06Z GEFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5FrD6p9/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh168-252.gif

HUGE swing east from the 0z run.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like 98L will be moving into a suppressed phase of the Kelvin Wave, which is why slower development is possible, likely affecting track downstream.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440311324064374787



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440313866009808913

[skyline385]

Looks like 98L will be moving into a suppressed phase of the Kelvin Wave, which is why slower development is possible, likely affecting track downstream.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440311324064374787



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440313866009808913

CSU biweekly report had forecasted the same as well, they were predicting average tropical activity due to the suppressed phase of the Kelvin wave over the Atlantic for the next two weeks...

[sma10]

06Z GEFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5FrD6p9/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh168-252.gif

HUGE swing east from the 0z run.

Worth reminding people that as of this moment, GFS is huge outlier. All other modeling used by NHC shows different story, for now

[otowntiger]

06Z GEFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5FrD6p9/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh168-252.gif

HUGE swing east from the 0z run.

Worth reminding people that as of this moment, GFS is huge outlier. All other modeling used by NHC shows different story, for now

Good point and thanks for the reminder. Certainly no conclusions can be made about any model this far out. However it is noteworthy since it is one of the top two or three models they rely upon. Others could swing toward the GFS or vice versa in the coming days.

[sma10]

HUGE swing east from the 0z run.

Worth reminding people that as of this moment, GFS is huge outlier. All other modeling used by NHC shows different story, for now

Good point and thanks for the reminder. Certainly no conclusions can be made about any model this far out. However it is noteworthy since it is one of the top two or three models they rely upon. Others could swing toward the GFS or vice versa in the coming days.

Agree - or the correct solution might be a blend. That's what will make the 12z UK and Euro interesting.

[grapealcoholic]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/SxqXQyw4/EDF08-C0-C-E1-C0-457-E-8-CDC-9-A659-A79179-B.gif

This is a very tight spread as far as ensemble runs go. PR should watch this one very closely

[Fego]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/SxqXQyw4/EDF08-C0-C-E1-C0-457-E-8-CDC-9-A659-A79179-B.gif

This is a very tight spread as far as ensemble runs go. PR should watch this one very closely

We are... very closely. Thanks.
I think 98l will take longer to develop, than predicted by the models.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS backing down on intensity in the short term so far.

[aspen]

12z GFS has a TC by midday Friday. Prior to Thursday, 98L remains convectively weak.

[Highteeld]

Let's hope it doesn't hit Puerto Rico. They can't take another cat 4

[grapealcoholic]

12z GFS coming in further south like the euro

[AutoPenalti]

Trough is still there though, I wonder if it will pick it up.

[otowntiger]

12z GFS coming in further south like the euro

well I don't know if I'd say 'like the Euro' in that it appears to still be pretty far right of the Euro. It is (a little) further west than previous runs, it appears, but will still miss the Islands by several hundred miles and seems to be doing another clear OTS solution.

[grapealcoholic]

Trough is still there though, I wonder if it will pick it up.

I'm not buying that phantom trough placement tbh. Also still really far out for that area to resolve