ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetsIslesNoles]

It looks like Fred is traveling with the shear vector now. I’ve seen a number of storms in this area ramp up by doing that. Michael of course was the most dramatic example. Not expecting anything like that, but starting to prep for something more than originally anticipated. Cat 1 hurricane is certainly on the table with 24+ hours to go.

I’m ready for something Hermine like here in Tally. I hope I’m wrong.

[N2FSU]

NWS Tallahassee has called a special EOC briefing here for 6:30pm.

[ronjon]

COC already looks to be east of NHCs projected path. Seems to be most closely following 12z UKMET so far. If that verifies, landfall may be closer to Apalachicola.

[skyline385]

Convection seems to be fading away again...

[psyclone]

those original forecasts of a Franklin/Gulf landfall that the NHC was stuck on before the west shift may end up accurate after all. Even if the center comes in west of there the biggest weather impacts look to be targeting the Forgotten coast/big bend region. Fred continues to produce a long feeder band on its eastern flank. should that configuration remain intact, that feature may well get dragged east as the center moves inland and begins losing longitude. More right shifts in the track seem possible since right loaded systems tend to lean right over time..

[StormPyrate]

Nasty squall moving south to north through Pinellas right now, gusts of 42 and 59 recorded in St. Pete in the last 10-15 minutes.

It got really dark for a while, dropped just over a half inch of rain and moved out

[skyline385]

Recon heading out

[aspen]

Convection seems to be fading away again...

And now comes another hot tower to replace the waning convection, just in time for recon.

[FLpanhandle91]

Appears to have some progress west if that tower is near the center.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm as ready as I'll get here just east of Destin, nobody seems worried about it and tourists are beaching it as usual.

[tropicwatch]

Pressure seems to have come down. HH not to the center yet and reporting around 1002mb.

[aspen]

Recon has found a relatively compact center with pressures of ~999 mbar. This has organized very quickly today.

[NevadaFan18]

998.9mb extrap in newest HH pass

[Woofde]

That pressure profile looks very healthy. Gonna be another close one where if it had another 12-24 hours over water things would be very different.

[tropicwatch]

998.9mb extrap in newest HH pass

Pretty Significant pressure drop.

[MarioProtVI]

Wonder if this may make a run for hurricane intensity.. Let’s see what they find in convection

[Homie J]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427055890780229634

[NDG]

Dropsonde measure 1000mb, that's a pretty good drop since late morning.

[NDG]

I'm sure they will find stronger winds in the NE quadrant.

047
URNT12 KNHC 152357
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062021
A. 15/23:28:10Z
B. 27.09 deg N 085.69 deg W
C. 850 mb 1432 m
D. 1000 mb
E. 085 deg 4 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 35 kt
I. 301 deg 65 nm 23:06:00Z
J. 078 deg 32 kt
K. 301 deg 67 nm 23:05:30Z
L. 38 kt
M. 130 deg 65 nm 23:50:30Z
N. 206 deg 35 kt
O. 130 deg 67 nm 23:51:00Z
P. 18 C / 1521 m
Q. 22 C / 1526 m
R. NA / NA
S. 1345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 0.75 nm
U. AF305 1406A FRED OB 05
MAX FL WIND 35 KT 130 / 67 NM 23:51:00Z
;

[NDG]

Last vis sattelite loop before darkness. Deep convection still firing up. Tomorrow morning will be interesting.