ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Either they missed the exact center, or the pressure rapidly rose all the way back up to 1008-1009 mbar. I have a hard time believing the LLC would weaken that much in only an hour or so.

[Dean4Storms]

Something went wrong with that pass.

[SunnyThoughts]

Either they missed the exact center, or the pressure rapidly rose all the way back up to 1008-1009 mbar. I have a hard time believing the LLC would weaken that much in only an hour or so.

Hasn't one of the planes been having problems with the pressure readings in the last couple missions? Not sure if was AF or NOAA, but I remember reading there were problems of some sort.

[skyline385]

Definitely missed the centre, both the SFMR and MSLP didnt drop before going back up. If it is RI'ing, it could be a tiny centre. Need VDM update...

[skyline385]

Looks like a CDO is forming.

[FLpanhandle91]

Did the center relocate itself way west just now? Seems due WSW from the last pass.

[Blown Away]

Did the center relocate itself way west just now? Seems due WSW from the last pass.

Looks like all the weather will be E of Panama City.

[Sciencerocks]

[psyclone]

Looks like Fred is showing off a naked swirl again

[Dean4Storms]

Saw that naked LLC come out to the WSW and Recon verified it. Actually if you view the 18z of the HWRF it jumps the center to the west a time or two. Fascinating.

[Steve]

Did the center relocate itself way west just now? Seems due WSW from the last pass.

Looks like all the weather will be E of Panama City.

Maybe most of the heaviest stuff but you can’t rule out weather near and just north of where the center comes in.

[eastcoastFL]

[skyline385]

Such an incredible system, the convection blob it still going off even after getting sheared...

[Owasso]

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[FLpanhandle91]

Fred's center currently moving due west, maybe even south of due west.

[skyline385]

Fred's center currently moving due west, maybe even south of due west.

Look at recon's centre fixes, its definitely moving WSW

[chaser1]

Okay, I'm pretty confused. Just read the 10:00pm discussion. ".... center is embedded within the convection...". Then I clearly see that naked swirl moving SW. Someone please tell me that this feature wasn't the supposedly stronger and better organized Fred referenced LOL?

[tropicwatch]

Believe this motion is temporary and will just delay landfall on the north gulf coast.

[crimi481]

I believe center is under the big blob and most of the weather moving N. almost N.E

[BobHarlem]

HMM the 0z GFS calling for a cat 1 (and strengthening) landfall tomorrow may be shock to some folks in the morning if the NHC decides to drop Hurricane Watches up overnight.