ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1841 Postby SteveM » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am

Have the ERCs caused much increase in Sam's wind fields? He still looks pretty small to me.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1842 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:24 am

The plane has taken off and is 20 m off the ground.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1843 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:24 am

SteveM wrote:Have the ERCs caused much increase in Sam's wind fields? He still looks pretty small to me.

Yes considerably. so
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1844 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:48 am

The plane is nearing Sam.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1845 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:56 am

Image

WMG eye embedded in LG surrounded by B.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1846 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:10 pm

1st pass at the eye coming up. SW-NE.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1847 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:12 pm

The IR presentation continues to improve. Sam is finally intensifying near a peak intensity when recon is in the storm.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1848 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:17 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1849 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:18 pm

The next update should have the eye pass from the plane.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1850 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:20 pm

Unfortunately, the barometer on AF307 isn’t working. We’ll have to wait for center drops to know Sam’s pressure for each pass.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1851 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:22 pm

Cloud tops around Sam are now rapidly cooling.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1852 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:24 pm

Wow, I hope recon can stay near Sam for 3 or 4 passes (3 hours) or something like that, because Sam is rapidly improving on IR and visual. I think the next ~12 hours is gonna be that peak that we have been waiting for the last few days.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1853 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:24 pm

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1443626172525555718


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1854 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:31 pm

SW quad is quite strong: 118kt max FL, 131kt max SFMR (flagged), 125kt max valid SFMR.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1855 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:37 pm

aspen wrote:Unfortunately, the barometer on AF307 isn’t working. We’ll have to wait for center drops to know Sam’s pressure for each pass.


7013 02610 +143 -> 945.2mb
6959 02658 +163 -> 941.5mb
6973 02627 +149 -> 942.0mb
6970 02618 +150 -> 940.6mb
6974 02611 +153 -> 939.8mb
6963 02624 +149 -> 940.7mb
6967 02622 +149 -> 940.8mb
6971 02624 +144 -> 942.2mb
6970 02627 +146 -> 942.1mb
6959 02638 +149 -> 941.7mb
6970 02618 +148 -> 940.9mb
6972 02612 +153 -> 939.7mb
6975 02607 +155 -> 939.2mb
6976 02607 +150 -> 940.1mb
6967 02622 +149 -> 940.8mb
6967 02618 +159 -> 938.9mb
6961 02626 +163 -> 938.4mb
6974 02611 +159 -> 938.8mb


6970 02615 +150 -> 940.3mb
6965 02618 +151 -> 939.9mb
6953 02633 +144 -> 941.4mb
6971 02612 +147 -> 940.5mb
6970 02612 +155 -> 939.2mb
6954 02629 +155 -> 939.3mb
6973 02609 +161 -> 938.2mb
6966 02617 +159 -> 938.7mb
6967 02617 +156 -> 939.2mb
6966 02618 +150 -> 940.2mb
6962 02621 +146 -> 940.7mb
6964 02615 +142 -> 940.9mb
6973 02607 +154 -> 939.1mb
6965 02621 +152 -> 940.1mb
6972 02611 +158 -> 938.8mb
6967 02628 +165 -> 938.9mb
6967 02639 +163 -> 940.4mb


Rough estimate based on a regression from the last mission. Doesn't take humidity into account though.
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1856 Postby Statmospheric » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:38 pm

They seem to have circled around the inside of the eye which is a bit odd.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1857 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:39 pm

Statmospheric wrote:They seem to have circled around the inside of the eye which is a bit odd.


Maybe to get a 'perfect' eye dropsonde since they don't have a working barometer?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1858 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:41 pm

The eye is clearing on visible as we speak:

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1859 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:43 pm

The southwest cloud burst continues to get colder and larger.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1860 Postby WiscoWx02 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:43 pm

Recon got 130 kt winds at flight level, willing to bet Sam weakened last night but is likely restrengthening given IR and visible satellite imagery. Next couple of passes may come out stronger.
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