ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

It won’t help you for Cuba, but you can find some US rainfall maps here: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Over the next week, 4-5 inches of rain looks possible for parts of Florida, though probably an inch of that is from a separate system moving through today.

Thanks. Looks like the western gulf coast is getting more rain than Elsa will bring to Florida

[TallyTracker]

Keep in mind that if Elsa hits the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, the storm may take a huge hit. The mountains are thousands of feet high. Storm interacting with it even at high speeds have taken huge hits in intensity and organization. Matthew is the most recent one that comes to mind.

A direct hit on Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and I’m unsure if Elsa will survive. If it can stay away from the high mountains some reintensification might be possible south of Cuba. After Cuba is still very much up in the air. Anything from remnants to a hurricane is possible. Big thing that’s becoming more certain is a lot of rain for the Greater Antilles and Florida.

I don’t see the rainfall potentials on the NHC page anymore. Do you know where I can find that?

NHC only shows rainfall potentials when storms are close to the US. They should start providing those again tomorrow.

The Weather Prediction Center has some maps of expected rainfall totals for various time windows. See the link below. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml

[eastcoastFL]

Convection really firing off over the center now

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[GCANE]

[NDG]

BTW, both the latest 06z GFS and 06z Euro show Elsa missing the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti and the mountains of eastern Cuba but both keep it weak despite missing the high terrains.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection still is not quite over the center. She has got to slow down. If that swirl continues to be partially exposed, it will spin down and weaken considerably

[Sciencerocks]

[Ian2401]

looking a little better than this morning but thats not saying much. the slowdown should help her a little but with land interaction and all i just dont think she has the time to regain all her lost strength.

[hurricane2025]

Looks horrible this morning

[floridasun78]

i think she never go back to hurr because of islands and speed it going any way carribbean not place for tropical system in july very few make it if was oct and different story not july

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks horrible this morning

Shh, she had a bad hair day.

[SconnieCane]

Looks horrible this morning

Shh, she had a bad hair day.

Yes...she has lost her lovely spiral-galaxy outflow pattern that I posted about last night. This is...not what I expected given how consistent the HWRF had been. Even so, the Euro didn't exactly score a coup on this either.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I see the beginnings of convection on the west forming.

[GrayLancer18]

Thought the chances of Elsa of being a potent wind machine is almost nil at this point, it still could leave huge impacts.

It's gonna through Haiti, a mountainous country with poor infrastructure.
We all know that even a tropical storm can cause a lot of fatalities in that country due to landslides and flooding. (think Gordon 1994 and Hanna 2008)
Not to mention that a disorganized low can be as bad rainwise for the recovery efforts in Miami.

Also, it is easy to diss Elsa on what it could've been to what it actually achieved:
It is the earliest "E" named Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, beating last year's record, that formed in the MDR in July going through that it's considered a graveyard for hurricanes.
Elsa can be just coincidence just as well can be a signal that this season might be filled of Caribbean cruisers that will tap into those nice toasty waters with deep OHP in the peak of the season...

[SFLcane]

Hmmm…

[ElectricStorm]

Looked like garbage earlier, and still doesn't look great now but at least convection has started to refire.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hmmm…

https://i.postimg.cc/HxCXBNSH/EDFDF218-CA55-451-C-8-B74-D8-AF0-DD8198-F.gif

Elsa is doing something

[Cat5James]

Hmmm…

https://i.postimg.cc/HxCXBNSH/EDFDF218-CA55-451-C-8-B74-D8-AF0-DD8198-F.gif

She’s heard everyone badmouthing her. I for one am not burying her yet.

[Jr0d]

Hard to believe it is suppose to slow down later today, still racing along. This speed has destroyed many storms.

If it slows down before Cuba, there small window to strengthen.....and then another window when.north of Cuba. It is interesting how quickly so many will write off the storm.before it even finds favorable conditions.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is not going to die everyone. She is/ was just weakening(a lot) but it would take quite a bit more to dissipate her given she looks to miss Hispaniola