ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Unfortunately that tiny core is staying mostly over water so the forecast for Cuba will probably include hurricane force winds. 06z model runs are further right so maybe not so bad after Cuba. Key west can usually handle a strong tropical storm but just a small track change could give Elsa enough time over water to maintain whatever strength she gains in the next 12 hours.

[Laser30033003]

is the 11am out yet ????

[BYG Jacob]

Hmmm…

https://i.postimg.cc/HxCXBNSH/EDFDF218-CA55-451-C-8-B74-D8-AF0-DD8198-F.gif

Looks like Elsa will just manage to squeeze by

[Category5Kaiju]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Part of the reason why I think Elsa is struggling now is there is 20-25 knots of deep layer wind shear right above her. However, judging by this, the waters around Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica are actually very favorable with low wind shear, so assuming Elsa buys some time over water, just watch closely. I personally do not think she is completely done just yet.

[eastcoastFL]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of
Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and
Matanzas.

[kevin]

She's looking messy, but let's not write her off yet. Perhaps Elsa will indeed never regain her former strength but I've been fooled too many times by zombie storms on this forum. So I'm very hesistant with writing off storms until it's really a done deal. Looking at that new burst I think Elsa still has a chance to surprise us if it stays of Hispaniola.

[Nimbus]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Part of the reason why I think Elsa is struggling now is there is 20-25 knots of deep layer wind shear right above her. However, judging by this, the waters around Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica are actually very favorable with low wind shear, so assuming Elsa buys some time over water, just watch closely. I personally do not think she is completely done just yet.

Any tropical storm with up to 30 hours over warm SST's and low shear is likely to intensify.
Haven't read the official 11 AM forecast though.

[sunnyday]

Has anyone noticed that there is one tiny sliver on Florida ‘s east coast that is out of the cone? It looks like around Palm Beach area. With so much uncertainty about the storm’s path and with most of the state in the cone, how can that one tiny area be excluded?

[InfernoFlameCat]

70mph seems a bit high

[skillz305]

Has anyone noticed that there is one tiny sliver on Florida ‘s east coast that is out of the cone? It looks like around Palm Beach area. With so much uncertainty about the storm’s path and with most of the state in the cone, how can that one tiny area be excluded?

It’ll shift a little east on this 11am cone update

Edit: nvm

[eastcoastFL]

Has anyone noticed that there is one tiny sliver on Florida ‘s east coast that is out of the cone? It looks like around Palm Beach area. With so much uncertainty about the storm’s path and with most of the state in the cone, how can that one tiny area be excluded?

It’s actually from Miami to Port St. Lucie along the east coast. I’m happily in that sliver for now.

[BYG Jacob]

I remember a storm that got organized before the eastern Caribbean, had a center relocation that helped it avoid land, and then moved into conditions ripe for intensification. Do y'all remember?

[eastcoastFL]

I remember a storm that got organized before the eastern Caribbean, had a center relocation that helped it avoid land, and then moved into conditions ripe for intensification. Do y'all remember?

Did it plow into Cuba after missing land?

[AutoPenalti]

Has anyone noticed that there is one tiny sliver on Florida ‘s east coast that is out of the cone? It looks like around Palm Beach area. With so much uncertainty about the storm’s path and with most of the state in the cone, how can that one tiny area be excluded?

It’s actually from Miami to Port St. Lucie along the east coast. I’m happily in that sliver for now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144912_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Knowing a lot of people down here, some have stopped prepping because Broward is no longer in the cone of confusion.

[jlauderdal]

is the 11am out yet ????

Please be specific on which product you are asking about.

[Sanibel]

Good news but I'm not going to drop my guard...We've all seen these things hit favorability before and quickly regain strength...That track hasn't veered and is taking a TS right over the top of me...I've got to screw a hurricane shutter anchor plate back in to the porch board that was replaced for rot...

[Jr0d]

I remember a storm that got organized before the eastern Caribbean, had a center relocation that helped it avoid land, and then moved into conditions ripe for intensification. Do y'all remember?

It also was not going 30mph either. Until Elsa slows down the chances of strengthening are nil.....however that slowdown is supposed to happen today.

[BYG Jacob]

I remember a storm that got organized before the eastern Caribbean, had a center relocation that helped it avoid land, and then moved into conditions ripe for intensification. Do y'all remember?

Did it plow into Cuba after missing land?

Not every storm is exactly the same, just pointing out the storm will reintensify significantly later today.

[GCANE]

Last recon fix:
Core warming back up, pressure dropping

[BYG Jacob]

I remember a storm that got organized before the eastern Caribbean, had a center relocation that helped it avoid land, and then moved into conditions ripe for intensification. Do y'all remember?

It also was not going 30mph either. Until Elsa slows down the chances of strengthening are nil.....however that slowdown is supposed to happen today.

Yes, it is.