ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

And here is the update because of the recon.

7:30 AM CDT Mon Aug 16
Location: 28.7°N 85.6°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[Hypercane_Kyle]

60 - 65 knots looks reasonable at landfall.

Hurricane warnings should be issued soon, IMO.

[xironman]

anyone have a satellite comparison of this morning and Saturday AM Incredible what the GOM can do. And to think its only th 16th of AUG.

Yeah if the Gulf can change Fred in one day from a mess to a formidable TS, I'm afraid of what September will bring.

I wouldn’t call it “formidable” per se. Structurally it is still quite lopsided and misaligned, owing to westerly shear. I think it will be a moderate TS at landfall.

Nevertheless, even a moderate TS would be sufficient to cause problems in regard to shallowly rooted trees, given the saturated ground present locally.

It is only 14 mph short of a hurricane now.

[TallyTracker]

It looks like a nascent eyewall forming in radar imagery. I know that the beam is high and it’s the mid-level center. Fred does look like it has the structure to make a run at hurricane status prior to landfall. Crazy transformation from a 2 days ago!

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1427247599900405763

[TallyTracker]

Rain starting to fall with a steady breeze here in Tallahassee. Tornado Watch has just been posted for much of the FL Panhandle and south AL and GA.

[tolakram]

Shear now appears to be directly out of the south, as forecast.

[xironman]

51kt flight level wind 70 miles east of the center. Also looks like some mesos in the proto eye, that could ramp things up.

[tolakram]

anyone have a satellite comparison of this morning and Saturday AM Incredible what the GOM can do. And to think its only th 16th of AUG.

Yeah if the Gulf can change Fred in one day from a mess to a formidable TS, I'm afraid of what September will bring.

I wouldn’t call it “formidable” per se. Structurally it is still quite lopsided and misaligned, owing to westerly shear. I think it will be a moderate TS at landfall.

Nevertheless, even a moderate TS would be sufficient to cause problems in regard to shallowly rooted trees, given the saturated ground present locally.

Southerly shear, which has been discussed by the NHC and other qualified individuals. I will not pretend to understand what effects this storm will have on the coast.

I personally think Fred will be a hurricane at landfall, but dry air combined with some shear could very well keep Fred below hurricane strength.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Big difference with Fred vs Elsa: both were dealing with similar shear, but the atmosphere is significantly more moist for Fred than with Elsa. And yet Elsa still managed to briefly ascend to hurricane status. So long as there isn't dry air penetrating its way into the core, Fred has a real shot of hurricane status before landfall.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Panhandle folks probably are on their toes ( I sure hope so) yet another strengthening storm in the Gulf. No matter that its categorized at a TS. Isaias was too- until it wasn't. Hoping for the best and folks are ready.

[BobHarlem]

Mark Sudduth doing live coverage https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtUHGvDBfC4

[Kohlecane]

Shorter passes? I'm not a recon genius but I feel like they are gonna miss that NE quad, regardless I'm sure they will have a lot more data by the 11AM as this probably will be over water for another 4 hours or so

[TallyTracker]

Panhandle folks probably are on their toes ( I sure hope so) yet another strengthening storm in the Gulf. No matter that its categorized at a TS. Isaias was too- until it wasn't. Hoping for the best and folks are ready.

I warned my family in Panama City last night that it might become a hurricane and to be prepared. Unfortunately there is still a lot of debris and people living in trailers from Michael. That’s what worries me most about this storm. 65 mph winds can do a number on FEMA trailers and mobile homes. Also I know mentally this is traumatic for those folks watching another storm exceed the forecast like this.

[NDG]

67 knot flight level winds on the NE quadrant.
Weird much weaker SFMR readings.

130700 2919N 08511W 9253 00747 0082 +208 +050 101051 053 026 002 00
130730 2917N 08512W 9252 00743 0077 +211 +054 100055 056 026 002 00
130800 2916N 08513W 9254 00738 0078 +196 +056 104059 060 027 003 00
130830 2915N 08515W 9244 00743 0072 +202 +056 105062 062 026 001 00
130900 2913N 08516W 9251 00732 0067 +201 +055 102064 065 027 003 00
130930 2912N 08518W 9253 00728 0067 +188 +054 100065 066 027 003 00
131000 2911N 08519W 9257 00721 0061 +190 +052 100065 066 028 003 00
131030 2910N 08521W 9254 00720 0057 +200 +049 104064 067 030 002 00
131100 2908N 08522W 9267 00710 0055 +209 +049 113060 062 032 002 00
131130 2907N 08524W 9245 00726 //// +207 //// 115059 061 032 001 01
131200 2906N 08525W 9251 00713 //// +210 //// 115052 056 027 003 01
131230 2905N 08526W 9247 00714 //// +207 //// 109055 060 030 002 01
131300 2904N 08528W 9249 00704 //// +205 //// 113054 060 034 003 01
131330 2902N 08529W 9243 00707 //// +198 //// 114057 059 024 003 01
131400 2901N 08530W 9245 00699 0018 +202 +053 112056 058 024 004 00
131430 2900N 08532W 9256 00675 0004 +209 +050 112056 057 030 005 00
131500 2859N 08533W 9244 00676 9994 +211 +048 117058 059 019 000 00
131530 2857N 08534W 9258 00653 9982 +214 +047 123056 059 031 004 00
131600 2856N 08535W 9256 00646 9969 +219 +048 132036 051 030 003 00
131630 2855N 08536W 9259 00637 9959 +228 +050 140022 030 012 000 00
$$
;

[Hypercane_Kyle]

67 knot FL winds translate well to 50-55 knots. Fred is slowly intensifying.

[sweetpea]

Panhandle folks probably are on their toes ( I sure hope so) yet another strengthening storm in the Gulf. No matter that its categorized at a TS. Isaias was too- until it wasn't. Hoping for the best and folks are ready.

I warned my family in Panama City last night that it might become a hurricane and to be prepared. Unfortunately there is still a lot of debris and people living in trailers from Michael. That’s what worries me most about this storm. 65 mph winds can do a number on FEMA trailers and mobile homes. Also I know mentally this is traumatic for those folks watching another storm exceed the forecast like this.

I am down in Sopchoppy and it doesn't look like anyone is really paying attention to it. My neighbor still has their patio umbrella up and open!! There are a couple of houses being built across the street and their is debris everywhere! I hope everyone stays safe.

[wx98]

Landfall likely between Panama and Destin this afternoon.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a more NNW jog on radar last hour.