ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

Panhandle folks probably are on their toes ( I sure hope so) yet another strengthening storm in the Gulf. No matter that its categorized at a TS. Isaias was too- until it wasn't. Hoping for the best and folks are ready.

I warned my family in Panama City last night that it might become a hurricane and to be prepared. Unfortunately there is still a lot of debris and people living in trailers from Michael. That’s what worries me most about this storm. 65 mph winds can do a number on FEMA trailers and mobile homes. Also I know mentally this is traumatic for those folks watching another storm exceed the forecast like this.

I am down in Sopchoppy and it doesn't look like anyone is really paying attention to it. My neighbor still has their patio umbrella up and open!! There are a couple of houses being built across the street and their is debris everywhere! I hope everyone stays safe.

Yes that seems to be the case everywhere around here. Some friends went into the office today, and they had the option to stay home. They’re gonna be driving home in near TS conditions later today. Elsa knocked my power out for an hour and a half and we were on the weak, dry side of that one. 20-30 mph winds for hours with the ground saturated is gonna knock trees and power lines down. Especially with the tornado threat. Stay safe down there in Sopchoppy!

[gulf701]

Anyone who experienced Michael is most likely monitoring Fred. Michael's calling card is still visible. If anyone is interested, these are current conditions in Gulf County, FL. Rain .95 in. Barometer at drafting was 1009.4/29.81 and has fallen to 1009.1/29.80. Wind NE at 8mph with high of 18. As I close this post pressure has fallen to 1008.9/29.79.

[Dean4Storms]

67 knot flight level winds on the NE quadrant.
Weird much weaker SFMR readings.

130700 2919N 08511W 9253 00747 0082 +208 +050 101051 053 026 002 00
130730 2917N 08512W 9252 00743 0077 +211 +054 100055 056 026 002 00
130800 2916N 08513W 9254 00738 0078 +196 +056 104059 060 027 003 00
130830 2915N 08515W 9244 00743 0072 +202 +056 105062 062 026 001 00
130900 2913N 08516W 9251 00732 0067 +201 +055 102064 065 027 003 00
130930 2912N 08518W 9253 00728 0067 +188 +054 100065 066 027 003 00
131000 2911N 08519W 9257 00721 0061 +190 +052 100065 066 028 003 00
131030 2910N 08521W 9254 00720 0057 +200 +049 104064 067 030 002 00
131100 2908N 08522W 9267 00710 0055 +209 +049 113060 062 032 002 00
131130 2907N 08524W 9245 00726 //// +207 //// 115059 061 032 001 01
131200 2906N 08525W 9251 00713 //// +210 //// 115052 056 027 003 01
131230 2905N 08526W 9247 00714 //// +207 //// 109055 060 030 002 01
131300 2904N 08528W 9249 00704 //// +205 //// 113054 060 034 003 01
131330 2902N 08529W 9243 00707 //// +198 //// 114057 059 024 003 01
131400 2901N 08530W 9245 00699 0018 +202 +053 112056 058 024 004 00
131430 2900N 08532W 9256 00675 0004 +209 +050 112056 057 030 005 00
131500 2859N 08533W 9244 00676 9994 +211 +048 117058 059 019 000 00
131530 2857N 08534W 9258 00653 9982 +214 +047 123056 059 031 004 00
131600 2856N 08535W 9256 00646 9969 +219 +048 132036 051 030 003 00
131630 2855N 08536W 9259 00637 9959 +228 +050 140022 030 012 000 00
$$
;

Not much convection (Rain Rate just about non existent) in that NE quad during that pass, stronger winds might not making it to the surface there.

[Dean4Storms]

Getting some dry air wrapping in on the east quad?

[wx98]

67 knot flight level winds on the NE quadrant.
Weird much weaker SFMR readings.

130700 2919N 08511W 9253 00747 0082 +208 +050 101051 053 026 002 00
130730 2917N 08512W 9252 00743 0077 +211 +054 100055 056 026 002 00
130800 2916N 08513W 9254 00738 0078 +196 +056 104059 060 027 003 00
130830 2915N 08515W 9244 00743 0072 +202 +056 105062 062 026 001 00
130900 2913N 08516W 9251 00732 0067 +201 +055 102064 065 027 003 00
130930 2912N 08518W 9253 00728 0067 +188 +054 100065 066 027 003 00
131000 2911N 08519W 9257 00721 0061 +190 +052 100065 066 028 003 00
131030 2910N 08521W 9254 00720 0057 +200 +049 104064 067 030 002 00
131100 2908N 08522W 9267 00710 0055 +209 +049 113060 062 032 002 00
131130 2907N 08524W 9245 00726 //// +207 //// 115059 061 032 001 01
131200 2906N 08525W 9251 00713 //// +210 //// 115052 056 027 003 01
131230 2905N 08526W 9247 00714 //// +207 //// 109055 060 030 002 01
131300 2904N 08528W 9249 00704 //// +205 //// 113054 060 034 003 01
131330 2902N 08529W 9243 00707 //// +198 //// 114057 059 024 003 01
131400 2901N 08530W 9245 00699 0018 +202 +053 112056 058 024 004 00
131430 2900N 08532W 9256 00675 0004 +209 +050 112056 057 030 005 00
131500 2859N 08533W 9244 00676 9994 +211 +048 117058 059 019 000 00
131530 2857N 08534W 9258 00653 9982 +214 +047 123056 059 031 004 00
131600 2856N 08535W 9256 00646 9969 +219 +048 132036 051 030 003 00
131630 2855N 08536W 9259 00637 9959 +228 +050 140022 030 012 000 00
$$
;

Not much convection (Rain Rate just about non existent) in that NE quad during that pass, stronger winds might not making it to the surface there.

Looks like a dry slot to the NE side on radar right now.

[tolakram]

Hopefully the dry air is what holds Fred back from becoming a hurricane. The short term HWRF showed pressure dropping, then rising, then dropping. My guess is a constant fight with the shear and dry air wrapping in.

[Dean4Storms]

68kt Flight level NW Quad near the center.

132130 2847N 08550W 9247 00669 9992 +191 +050 345065 068 012 009 03

[sweetpea]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 161341
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radar indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend
out as far as 115 miles (185 km) east of the center of Fred.

This requires an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning along the
coast of the Florida Big Bend eastward to Steinhatchee River. This
change will be reflected in the upcoming 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory package.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

[tailgater]

Looks like a more NNW jog on radar last hour.

Recon showing that also, probably just a jog because of dry air getting suck in on the south and now a little to the east

[Iceresistance]

Really Impressive for a 50 mph Tropical Storm . . .

[aspen]

Perhaps FL to surface conversion is enough to raise Fred’s intensity a bit to 55 kt. If it can mix those FL down to the surface, it’ll be a hurricane, although it has very limited time to do so and might cap out just shy of Cat 1 intensity. Still, 60 kt vs 65 kt doesn’t make much of a difference for land impacts.

[NDG]

I just calculated Fred's CoC to be a good 85 miles SSE of likely landflall, that gives it a good 8 hours to continue strengthening before landfall.

[tropicwatch]

Very strange first pass through reporting normal flight to surface wind readings on the nw and se quads. Now getting surface winds well below conversion levels on ne, sw and south quads.

[wx98]

Very strange first pass through reporting normal flight to surface wind readings on the nw and se quads. Now getting surface winds well below conversion levels on ne, sw and south quads.

Dry air limiting convection and winds mixing to the surface.

[wx98]

Really Impressive for a 50 mph Tropical Storm . . .

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/74262773.gif

Update at 7:30 am CDT has 60 mph.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Dean4Storms]

Buoy 42039 winds gusting to 52kts winds out of the North. Pressure rising from 29.60 to 29.62.

[Blown Away]

Fred looking like a strong TS and appears to be gulping a big dry slot.

[chaser1]

Dry air and upper level shear has resulted in Fred's unusual propensity for it's LLC to seem to rotate somewhat around it's more dominant MLC to the east (actually to it's north right now) during Fred's northward GOM track. This seems to largely be the culprit in causing the up and down surface pressure readings as well as those stronger wind readings failing to reach the surface especially in relation to the LLC itself. As I see it though, this same process should lead to an additional 4-8 mb pressure drop this afternoon as the LLC rotates up (north) and in better vertical alignment. If this occurs, then winds will certainly increase close to hurricane threshold on approach to Panama City.

(edit: unless that dry slot can further penetrate into and further around the LLC, then we'll be left with what will probably appear as some mid level sub-tropical low. Nothing comes easy for Fred )