ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443905715865669634

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s funny how sw shear seems to pick up a little bit every night around the same time and then gradually ease as the day goes on. Is this the 3rd or 4th day in a row that this has happened?

[aspen]

Sam is a storm I would’ve expected between late August and mid September, not late September into early October. Who would’ve expected a 40 ACE long-tracking Cape Verde major intensifying to 130 kt at 28N/62W on October 1st?

[aspen]

Is there going to be another recon flight today?

Edit: AF307 is on the runaway.

[kevin]

Sam actually looks better on dvorak now compared to the time when recon made the 147 FL kt measurements.

Dvorak when recon measured 147 kt FL:


Now:

[aspen]

Sam actually looks better on dvorak now compared to the time when recon made the 147 FL kt measurements.

Dvorak when recon measured 147 kt FL:
https://i.imgur.com/7c7hk0v.jpg

Now:
https://i.imgur.com/oOzGRaH.jpg

Imagine if recon finds a Cat 5 lol.

147kt FL translates to 132kt at the surface, so if recon finds 150+ kt FL winds, that would justify at least 135 kt.

[kevin]

Sam actually looks better on dvorak now compared to the time when recon made the 147 FL kt measurements.

Dvorak when recon measured 147 kt FL:
https://i.imgur.com/7c7hk0v.jpg

Now:
https://i.imgur.com/oOzGRaH.jpg

Imagine if recon finds a Cat 5 lol.

147kt FL translates to 132kt at the surface, so if recon finds 150+ kt FL winds, that would justify at least 135 kt.

It would be the ultimate fairytale ending for Sam , just when everyone had given up hope. Not sure how likely it is, but we'll see soon enough. As you said in a previous post, recon just left and should arrive in 2 - 2.5 hours.

[grapealcoholic]

Definitely still strengthening

[kevin]

Current visual of Sam:

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443905715865669634

While Sam is impressive for its latitude, I doubt that the 147-kt FL winds were mixing efficiently. Neither Dvorak nor IR has supported ≥ 130 kt. Before others mention Dorian, I would like to point out that Dorian’s CDO and eye were far more symmetric than Sam’s has been over the past few days. Dorian’s eye was also notably warmer and coincided with cooler cloud-tops than Sam’s has. If I were to analyse current imagery of Sam, including visible, I would assign MSW of ~105–115 kt at most. Sam isn’t even exhibiting a well-defined stadium effect, a telltale sign of a ≥ 130-kt TC. Therefore, I think all these high FL winds have been enhanced by factors other than convection, and have not been representative of Sam’s MSW at 10 m.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443905715865669634

While Sam is impressive for its latitude, I doubt that the 147-kt FL winds were mixing efficiently. Neither Dvorak nor IR has supported ≥ 130 kt. Before others mention Dorian, I would like to point out that Dorian’s CDO and eye were far more symmetric than Sam’s has been over the past few days. Dorian’s eye was also notably warmer and coincided with cooler cloud-tops than Sam’s has. If I were to analyse current imagery of Sam, including visible, I would assign MSW of ~105–115 kt at most. Sam isn’t even exhibiting a well-defined stadium effect, a telltale sign of a ≥ 130-kt TC. Therefore, I think all these high FL winds have been enhanced by factors other than convection, and have not been representative of Sam’s MSW at 10 m.

Why would they not be mixing efficiently. The storm is not sheared. Also Dvorak is less accurate than recon.

[kevin]

And just for more tropical storm candy, some great visuals of Sam's eye right now:

[RL3AO]

I'm mostly here to see if Sam can get to the impressive 50 ACE level. Current forecast has it getting close.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443905715865669634

While Sam is impressive for its latitude, I doubt that the 147-kt FL winds were mixing efficiently. Neither Dvorak nor IR has supported ≥ 130 kt. Before others mention Dorian, I would like to point out that Dorian’s CDO and eye were far more symmetric than Sam’s has been over the past few days. Dorian’s eye was also notably warmer and coincided with cooler cloud-tops than Sam’s has. If I were to analyse current imagery of Sam, including visible, I would assign MSW of ~105–115 kt at most. Sam isn’t even exhibiting a well-defined stadium effect, a telltale sign of a ≥ 130-kt TC. Therefore, I think all these high FL winds have been enhanced by factors other than convection, and have not been representative of Sam’s MSW at 10 m.

I doubt the mixing factor is that inefficient. Surface winds of 115kt with FL winds of 147kt would mean a conversion rate of just 0.75, similar to storms that are interaction with troughs are are being baroclinically enhanced (like Isaias’ second peak). Sam doesn’t seem to be undergoing as much of an interaction yet. Also, the eye looks a lot better on visible than it has in days.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443905715865669634

While Sam is impressive for its latitude, I doubt that the 147-kt FL winds were mixing efficiently. Neither Dvorak nor IR has supported ≥ 130 kt. Before others mention Dorian, I would like to point out that Dorian’s CDO and eye were far more symmetric than Sam’s has been over the past few days. Dorian’s eye was also notably warmer and coincided with cooler cloud-tops than Sam’s has. If I were to analyse current imagery of Sam, including visible, I would assign MSW of ~105–115 kt at most. Sam isn’t even exhibiting a well-defined stadium effect, a telltale sign of a ≥ 130-kt TC. Therefore, I think all these high FL winds have been enhanced by factors other than convection, and have not been representative of Sam’s MSW at 10 m.

Why would they not be mixing efficiently. The storm is not sheared. Also Dvorak is less accurate than recon.

This loop illustrates bouts of westerly shear that have hindered full consolidation over the past few days. The core has consistently been a bit lopsided (diagram).

[Owasso]

Sam’s eye is drying out in a hurry.

[aspen]

The best Sam has looked in days. A fantastic storm for this far north this late in the year. Recon might find a 135 kt storm at this rate.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm mostly here to see if Sam can get to the impressive 50 ACE level. Current forecast has it getting close.

If it can stay 130 knots for the rest of the day, it has a real shot. Haven't seen an Atlantic power machine like this since Irma.

[kevin]

Any idea why recon left earlier than expected (they weren't 'supposed to' leave until 15z, which is 30 minutes from now). Not complaining, just curious whether someone knows.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443905715865669634

While Sam is impressive for its latitude, I doubt that the 147-kt FL winds were mixing efficiently. Neither Dvorak nor IR has supported ≥ 130 kt. Before others mention Dorian, I would like to point out that Dorian’s CDO and eye were far more symmetric than Sam’s has been over the past few days.

No offense, but your logic doesn't make any sense. Sam isn't nearly as strong as Dorian, that's confirmed by recon. So obviously, Sam isn't going to have nearly as symmetric of a CDO and eye. Sam doesn't need to be as strong as Dorian for the Dvorak estimates to be incorrect.