ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

Pressure is still falling quickly between recon passes, despite the less than ideal IR appearance especially in terms of cloud tops temperatures.

[wx98]

82 kt FL on east side

[MississippiWx]

Is it just my eyes or did Ida move a bit more NNW last few frames?

Definite northward wobble the last 30-45 minutes. It has been paralleling 86W. Could wobble back west, but any extended northward wobble means business for Nola.

[ScottNAtlanta]

982.1mb extrap on AF plane

A bit of a drop since the last time.

To be honest though these pressure readings from the plane have been a bit off compared to the dropsondes for some reason. Best to wait for confirmation from that.

[jlauderdal]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

Intensity forecasting is difficult for the nhc, why in the world would we put much stock into TWC and local forecasters, they should stay in their lane and stick to the basics.

[TheDreamTraveler]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

[ElectricStorm]

982.1mb extrap on AF plane

A bit of a drop since the last time.

To be honest though these pressure readings from the plane have been a bit off compared to the dropsondes for some reason. Best to wait for confirmation from that.

The AF plane was pretty spot on last pass. The NOAA plane was a bit high last time but it looks like it missed the center this time.

[aspen]

Seems like intensification might be kicking in. Pressure is down a few mbar between passes from the same plane for the first time today, there are now multiple expanding hot towers around the eye again, and banding is improving in the southern part of the storm.

[skyline385]

Winds are lagging but that core is deepening pretty decently...

[toad strangler]

CDO is tiny

[ScottNAtlanta]

A bit of a drop since the last time.

To be honest though these pressure readings from the plane have been a bit off compared to the dropsondes for some reason. Best to wait for confirmation from that.

The AF plane was pretty spot on last pass. The NOAA plane was a bit high last time but it looks like it missed the center this time.

Yeah...Miss Piggy (NOAA) had an 82kt wind at 925mb

[Category5Kaiju]

I must be missing something. Ida dropped 2-3mb in one pass and continues to improve. I’m not sure what some of you are expecting to find already. Lol.

They expect it to go from Cat 1 to 4 in 2.5 hours this morning. Come on.

Who expects it to go from a 1 to a 4 this morning?

There were some people on social media and S2K who were thinking that its temporary stall in RI meant conditions were not as favorable as once thought, but then again this is not another Wilma of course, and Dorian had two RI phases, with a small stall in between. So I still do not see anything that is very much hindering Ida sadly.

[ScottNAtlanta]

AF plane is showing that the winds are up considerably on the NW side since the last pass

[MississippiWx]

Winds are lagging but that core is deepening pretty decently...

Winds are actually a lot stronger in the NW quadrant than the previous pass through it.

[Dean4Storms]

Has to be a bit of shear coming in from the south otherwise I'd think we'd have already seen some eye clearing.

[Kohlecane]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

Dr. Postel also said this could be a short term trend and has the ability to change, in other words don't bait n hook quite yet

[otowntiger]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

[skyline385]

There seems to be a little warm spot forming between the rotating eyewalls. Pressures dont support an eye but there is something going on there...

[ElectricStorm]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

The 4am advisory doesn't have it getting to 100mph until this afternoon and still gets it to 140mph at landfall

[SFLcane]

Definitely see some shear affecting ida as you can see there’s no banding on the sw side of the storm. Did notice intensity guidance is coming down to a cat 3 hopefully that trend continues.