ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tomatkins]

Take a look at the Evacuation Traffic from New Orleans

Securing potential debris so pardon me for short messages, but St. Charles Parish (west of NO) at least is under mandatory evac which may explain some traffic observed as well.

I'm hearing that gas stations are dry all over the region, it that's they case hopefully people stuck in traffic don't run out of it.

After the Rita situation in Houston, I think the general consensus is that these kind of mass evacuations hurt more than they help. Evacuating a small town is one thing. But evacuating a million person metro is bound to leave alot of people more vulnerable than they might have been had they stayed in their neighborhood and went to the local gym or other sturdy structure.

[Highteeld]

Pressure down a bit. Finally doing something other than look pretty

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 984mb so pressure dropping a bit, will drop more once those towers wrap around

[Meteorcane]

Center warming rapidly on IR, suspect a legit eye on conventional satellite imagery is imminent (an eye already exists per the plane and microwave, but we will see it soon on visible and IR).

[SunnyThoughts]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

I agree. I think it runs out of time for a 4. I hope we are correct.

[tolakram]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)


saved loop, big picture

[ScottNAtlanta]

There seems to be a little warm spot forming between the rotating eyewalls. Pressures dont support an eye but there is something going on there...

https://i.imgur.com/vGZKh8j.png

That is the perfect representation of 2 hot towers rotating to close off the eye. Exact same thing with Grace before liftoff.

[ThetaE]

NOAA dropsonde found 983 mb/16 kt. AF dropsonde got 985 mb/9 kt. Bit of a weird discrepancy, but the NOAA sonde makes more sense given the change in AF's extrapolated pressure.

[USTropics]

300+ frames of Hurricane Ida since landfall yesterday in Cuba:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/0upMlWdL_kU[/youtube]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Center warming rapidly on IR, suspect a legit eye on conventional satellite imagery is imminent (an eye already exists per the plane and microwave, but we will see it soon on visible and IR).

I suppose that means we now have an Eye Warning

[Dean4Storms]

Winds beginning to ramp up at buoy 42003.......https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

[Kohlecane]

RGB/True color showing LL clouds expanding to the SW might just be temporary, but could be an early indication that shear dies off to its S IMO

[wx98]

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)


saved loop, big picture
https://i.imgur.com/SxUtFy0.gif

18z is actually 1 pm Central

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)


saved loop, big picture
https://i.imgur.com/SxUtFy0.gif

Actually 2pm Eastern 1pm Central

Current UTC time is 2:31 (-4 for Eastern)

[Category5Kaiju]

Ida looks very healthy right now with what looks to be an eye trying to form and vertical swirling hot towers. I'm still personally not sure where some are getting the idea that it is underperforming; even if it is I'm pretty sure with the environment it is expected to be in (especially thermodynamically directly over the Loop Current), I cannot see why it would continue to underperform.

[Dean4Storms]

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)


saved loop, big picture
https://i.imgur.com/SxUtFy0.gif

Yea, except 3pm est is 2pm cst.

[skyline385]

There seems to be a little warm spot forming between the rotating eyewalls. Pressures dont support an eye but there is something going on there...

https://i.imgur.com/vGZKh8j.png

That is the perfect representation of 2 hot towers rotating to close off the eye. Exact same thing with Grace before liftoff.

Yea its continuing to get warmer so looks like it is an eye trying to clear up...

[AxaltaRacing24]

The downcasting is absolutely comical. It’s like nobody watched Grace go from a TS to 125mph LAST WEEK. In under 24 hours. What’s also even worse, is to make statements like this when Ida is deepening as we speak.

[Kohlecane]

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)


saved loop, big picture
https://i.imgur.com/SxUtFy0.gif

Sorry, but to everyone not understanding your earlier post...Exhibit A:

[ThetaE]

NOAA dropsonde found 983 mb/16 kt. AF dropsonde got 985 mb/9 kt. Bit of a weird discrepancy, but the NOAA sonde makes more sense given the change in AF's extrapolated pressure.

Sorry-- that NOAA sonde is reported as "not reaching the surface." I dunno what happened to it, but it seems like 983 mb was the last reading.