SPAC: NIRAN - Post-Tropical
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
There is a partial outer eyewall/outer rainband on microwave imagery from a few hours ago. However, IR is not showing any signs that an EWRC is imminent.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Looks like SMAP got a decent pass at 835 UTC on the 4th with a derived 1-minute wind of 84.3 kt. Hopefully there will be another pass today as Niran continues to intensify.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
New JTWC forecast has it peaking at 125kts
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ElectricStorm
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Cat 4
23P NIRAN 210305 0600 17.8S 156.8E SHEM 115 940
23P NIRAN 210305 0600 17.8S 156.8E SHEM 115 940
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mrbagyo
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
JTWC: T7.0
TPPS10 PGTW 050919
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN)
B. 05/0850Z
C. 18.21S
D. 157.95E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0557Z 17.75S 156.82E SSMS
05/0630Z 17.82S 156.98E SSMS
MARTIN
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN)
B. 05/0850Z
C. 18.21S
D. 157.95E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0557Z 17.75S 156.82E SSMS
05/0630Z 17.82S 156.98E SSMS
MARTIN
Last edited by Subtrop on Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Unfortunately only a partial pass, but SMAP yielded 99.7 kt (1-minute) at 723 UTC today.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Niran has become what Delta tried and failed to be: a small T#8.0 pinhole eye system. This is likely WAY stronger than 115 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
This is insane.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
JTWC: Cat 5
BoM: Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran (Category 5)
23P NIRAN 210305 1200 18.8S 159.1E SHEM 140 917
BoM: Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran (Category 5)
FKAU05 ADRM 051246
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210305/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: NIRAN
ADVISORY NR: 2021/17
OBS PSN: 05/1200Z S1842 E15906
CB: WI 240NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: ESE 25KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 931HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 05/1800 S1954 E16112
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/0000 S2106 E16312
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 06/0600 S2224 E16536
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/1200 S2336 E16800
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
RMK: NIRAN MOVING OUT OF AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIB
ILITY
NXT MSG: NO MSG EXP
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210305/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: NIRAN
ADVISORY NR: 2021/17
OBS PSN: 05/1200Z S1842 E15906
CB: WI 240NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: ESE 25KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 931HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 05/1800 S1954 E16112
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/0000 S2106 E16312
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 06/0600 S2224 E16536
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/1200 S2336 E16800
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
RMK: NIRAN MOVING OUT OF AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIB
ILITY
NXT MSG: NO MSG EXP
Last edited by Subtrop on Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Iceresistance
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
OMG! 
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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doomhaMwx
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
On some satellite images, you can see the eye of TC Niran passing over an island in the Coral Sea, but interestingly, the island referred to as Sandy island actually doesn't exist. It still erroneously appears on some modern maps although long "undiscovered"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Amazing storm
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Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
What a monster... Third Cat 5 of the SHEM season. Not sure when that last happened, but I know its been awhile.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Didn’t take long; shear and/or foreword motion has caused the eye to collapse again. Since its peak didn’t last long, I don’t think Niran got to a ludicrous intensity like its nearly T#8.0 appearance suggested.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Called it; already saw a wall of shear attacking it.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
aspen wrote:Didn’t take long; shear and/or foreword motion has caused the eye to collapse again. Since its peak didn’t last long, I don’t think Niran got to a ludicrous intensity like its nearly T#8.0 appearance suggested.
Yeah I think the 140kt estimate seemed pretty spot on
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mrbagyo
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Lowest surface pressure recorded that I'm aware of is 971 hPa at NOUMEA (SYNOP: 91592) - March 6, 2021 5:00 UTC
LA TONTOUTA (SYNOP: 91590) bottomed to 974 hPa (4:00UTC)
Max Sustained Wind at given locations:
MOUE (METAR: NWWE SYNOP: 91596) - 69 kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00) / Max Gust - 124 kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00)
LA TONTOUTA (SYNOP: 91590) - 70kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00) / Max Gust - 143kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00)
KONE (SYNOP: 91578) - 46kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00) / Max Gust - 89 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
NOUMEA (SYNOP: 91592) - 88 kph (2021-03-06 05:00:00)
KOUMAC (SYNOP: 91577) - 45 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
TOUHO AEROD (SYNOP: 91586) - 62 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
LA TONTOUTA (SYNOP: 91590) bottomed to 974 hPa (4:00UTC)
Max Sustained Wind at given locations:
MOUE (METAR: NWWE SYNOP: 91596) - 69 kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00) / Max Gust - 124 kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00)
LA TONTOUTA (SYNOP: 91590) - 70kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00) / Max Gust - 143kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00)
KONE (SYNOP: 91578) - 46kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00) / Max Gust - 89 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
NOUMEA (SYNOP: 91592) - 88 kph (2021-03-06 05:00:00)
KOUMAC (SYNOP: 91577) - 45 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
TOUHO AEROD (SYNOP: 91586) - 62 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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wxman57
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Niran appears to be weakening VERY rapidly now. Has the look of a transitioning ET storm.
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