WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W- Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Look now at the S.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC in the process of renumbering for 18Z.

03W THREE 210512 1800 7.0N 129.9E WPAC 30 1001

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 121800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 06.9N 130.0E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
256 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
DEVELOPED WELL DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WHICH ARE WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD FIX POSITIONS AND A 121642Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED THE SYMMETRICAL CORE CONVECTION, SHALLOW OUTER
BANDS AND A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
30 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A
121145Z ASCAT-B PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS OF 25-30 KTS, SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM KNES AND RJTD,
AND T1.5 FROM PGTW (25 KTS). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (30C) SSTS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR
IS THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALOFT. JTWC UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY SMALL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
ONLY VERY WEAK CHANNELS TO POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48,
ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
THEREAFTER, AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE, IT WILL SHIFT TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER-
LEVEL FLOW. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
40 KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MINDANAO. AFTER
LANDFALL TD 03W WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND DUE TO TERRAIN
INTERACTION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PALAWAN AND INTO THE SULU SEA, INCREASING VWS AND INDUCING CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LATER
THAN TAU 72 IN THE SULU SEA, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS
TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS
NOT HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM WELL, WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, IN LARGE PART ESTIMATED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, WHICH
ARE NOT EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, RESULTING
IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Hammy]

This has to be one of the smallest lower latitude WPAC storms I've ever seen

[mrbagyo]

LLC is partially exposed

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAY 2021 Time : 001000 UTC
Lat : 7:10:49 N Lon : 129:17:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1005.3mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 1.9 2.9

Center Temp : -54.2C Cloud Region Temp : -30.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.8 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Highly likely a mid grade TS by now. It's small size screwing estimates and models underestimating.

That band though.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ50 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 07.3N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 07.4N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 140000UTC 07.6N 125.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 150000UTC 08.9N 121.9E 130NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[euro6208]

Upgraded to a TS based on a ship report of 40 knots.



WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM(TS) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T2.0 (30KT) FACTORED WITH A SHIP REPORT OF
40KTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
122141Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER BOTH
THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLES. THE CONVECTION IS WEAKER
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER, AND THE HIGHER FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE BAND REVEALS A SLOT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE LLCC AND THE
OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND. TS 03W IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 700-850MB MEAN
STEERING LAYER WINDS INDICATE A FIRM WESTWARD STEERING FLOW ALL THE
WAY ACROSS MINDANAO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW PRONOUNCED
DRYING NORTH OF THE 10TH LATITUDE, WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RISES
SHARPLY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THERE IS GOOD CONVICTION THAT TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
THE SURIGAO DEL SUR PROVINCE OF MINDANAO, NEAR THE 8TH LATITUDE. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW
VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS AT LANDFALL. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF MINDANAO AND INTO THE SULU SEA AFTER TAU 36. AS 03W MOVES
INTO THE SULU SEA AND RECONSOLIDATES, SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL RETARD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS EXCELLENT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT
ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE ONCE 03W MOVES INTO THE SULU SEA. THE TRACK
THROUGH THE SULU SEA IS MUCH LESS CLEAR AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX, THE
EFFECTS OF A MORE SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND A MORE
AMBIGUOUS STEERING FLOW. THERE IS ALSO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DROPS PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE EXACT POSITION
AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT YET REVEALING CONCLUSIVE
SIGNS OF THE INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT
THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.//
NNNN

[Meow]

WTPQ50 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 07.3N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 07.4N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 140000UTC 07.6N 125.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 150000UTC 08.9N 121.9E 130NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Short-lived system

[doomhaMwx]

At 00Z, a ship just 40km from the storm center reported sustained winds of 45kts and 1003mb pressure. The same ship reported 40kts at 01Z as it moved north.


 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1392679400898916352

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 130628
TCSWNP

A. 03W (NONAME)

B. 13/0530Z

C. 7.5N

D. 128.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 4/10
BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET=PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SANDUSKY

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 130607

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 13/0540Z

C. 7.49N

D. 127.84E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT IS 1.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[mrbagyo]

At 00Z, a ship just 40km from the storm center reported sustained winds of 45kts and 1003mb pressure. The same ship reported 40kts at 01Z as it moved north.

https://i.imgur.com/VuDjRVE.png
https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1392679400898916352

Is this the same ship?


Reported 90 kph @ 02z

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DISPLACED WEST OF AN ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST. HOWEVER, A 130721Z SSMI 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 130725Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT, WELL-DEFINED LLC, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 130500Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (29C). TS 03W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A 90-135NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48 TO TAU 72,
LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TS
03W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, TS 03W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25
KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

PAGASA upgraded this to a TS Crising more than 6 hours ago. What is taking JMA so long? You cannot ignore direct observations.

Maybe if it has an international name, people in Mindanao would take it more seriously.

[Subtrop]

03W THREE 210513 1200 7.5N 126.7E WPAC 30 1002

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 005//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL OVER
DAVAO ORIENTAL NEAR CATEL BAY AT APPROXIMATELY 1300Z. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPARSE SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO. DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC,
INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS VERTICAL STACK. THE LOW-TO-MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE LLCC WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND BUT CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RE-ENTER THE SULU SEA
OFF ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ENTER A MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THE PGTW 131200Z STREAMLINE CONFIRM THAT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS MOVING INTO THE SULU SEA, WHICH WILL SUPPRESS RE-INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE BIGGEST
FORECASTING DIFFICULTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF
THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM AND EXACTLY WHERE IT
WILL RE-ENTER THE SULU SEA, BUT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SULU SEA WILL PROHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL
RE-DEVELOPMENT.//
NNNN

[JW-_-]