EPAC: DOLORES - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it has good potential to become the first hurricane of the season.

12z HWRF:


12z HMON:

[Kingarabian]

Pretty large system:

[Astromanía]

So, where would be the potential landfall?

[Yellow Evan]

So, where would be the potential landfall?

Near the Colima/Michoacan border is the model consensus right now.

[Kingarabian]

Hope it remains broad and takes a while to develop. HWRF IR presentation looks gloomy.

[Yellow Evan]

Hope it remains broad and takes a while to develop. HWRF IR presentation looks gloomy.

https://i.imgur.com/gXwxukk.png

That may not be a good thing, given a broader system means the heavy rainfall is scattered over a larger area.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 150 miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days,
which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2021061800, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1005W, 30, 1005, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Slowly consolidating as predicted by the models. Might be classifiable in a few hours but I'd like to see a little more organization. This has a really good moisture envelope and shear doesn't seem to be a problem so I think model predictions of GFS/ECMWF of a steady ramup at landfall early Saturday is reasonable at this point. Not sure why there isn't any Recon scheduled.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 180001
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 17/2330Z

C. 14.7N

D. 100.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES AROUND A LLCC THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 1.5 USING THE
SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 1.5. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LLCC POSITION IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 06/18/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 47 51 46 44 43 42 41 42 44 46 47 46 48
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 47 51 40 40 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 43 43 34 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 8 11 17 18 18 17 15 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 2 2 4 4 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 93 87 73 108 92 112 151 203 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 28.9 28.3 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 166 165 165 155 149 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 85 83 78 77 77 73 67 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 15 15 13 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 63 64 71 75 87 72 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 126 102 91 122 144 104 87 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -8 -1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 262 252 242 251 246 132 -23 4 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 11 13 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 30 31 30 28 27 24 12 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 359 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. 45.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 0. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 21. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 18.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 100.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 06/18/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 7.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 6.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 41.5% 23.0% 21.7% 0.0% 24.0% 32.3% 24.9%
Logistic: 5.2% 25.8% 11.9% 8.1% 1.6% 26.3% 23.5% 8.5%
Bayesian: 0.9% 6.4% 5.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Consensus: 6.3% 24.6% 13.4% 10.2% 0.5% 17.0% 18.7% 11.2%
DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 06/18/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS initializes way too far SE.



0z GFS does bring a hurricane into Jalisco in its strongest run yet but the bad initialization screws the timing off.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the area of low
pressure located about a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico is becoming better defined. In addition, shower and
thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later this morning while the
system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco
during the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system through the weekend, and tropical storm
watches and warnings could be needed for a portion of the Mexican
coastline later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[Ubuntwo]

Looks great

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF continues to make this a solid hurricane. 00z HMON makes this a cat.2

[Kingarabian]

SAB up to 2.0/2.0

NHC could classify it at 11PM.

[Stormybajan]

With the rapid organization on going presently, dont be shocked if 94E is upgraded to depression at 8 am

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 04, 2021061806, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1013W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NONAME, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, TRANSITIONED, epA42021 to ep042021,

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Over the past 12 h convection has blossomed and has become better
organized over the broad low we have been monitoring a couple
hundred miles to the south of Acapulco, Mexico. Overnight
scatterometer-derived winds indicated that the system has acquired
a closed circulation with max winds in the northeast quadrant of 30
kt. The most recent 06z Dvorak satellite estimates were T1.5/25 kt
from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. Since that time, deep cold
convection has continued to increase near the estimated center with
improved banding both the north and southwest quadrants. Due to
this continued improvement in satellite imagery, this system is
being upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory.

Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional
intensification over the next 24-36 h as the storm reaches the
Mexican coastline with high mid-level relative humidity, only light
to moderate vertical wind shear, and very warm sea-surface
temperatures between 29 to 30 C. Thus the latest NHC forecast
indicates at least steady intensification, and TD4-E could become a
strong tropical storm as it approaches the Mexican coastline. The
NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus (HCCA) guidance.

The estimated current motion of this depression is at 285/7 kt.
Currently the system is being steered by a narrow mid-level ridge
north of Mexico. However, this ridge is forecast to weaken and allow
the storm to gain latitude over the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC
forecast takes the depression to the coast of Mexico by late
Saturday. This forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest
guidance and lies closest to the most recent ECMWF run, though
spread remains between models that keep the system just off the
Mexican coast like the UKMET versus the HWRF and GFS models which
take the storm further east and inland over Mexico sooner. Given
this track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes southward
to Lazaro Cardenas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.4N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake