BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of
Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and
Matanzas.
The Government of Jamaica has changed the Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, CinemaScope, and Matanzas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday
when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern
Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or
Monday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.
Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite imagery indicate that Elsa has weakened some since the
last advisory. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum
surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt. The
aircraft-reported central pressure is near 999 mb and gradually
rising, In addition, the center was exposed for a few hours,
although it is now located at the northwestern edge of a new
convective burst. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity
is reduced to 60 kt.
The initial motion is now 295/25. Elsa is approaching a weakness in
the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the
eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to
move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely
to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the
western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic
situated to the east of the this low. This evolution should cause
Elsa to slow its current breakneck forward speed during the next day
or so, then turn northwestward between 36-60 h, followed by a
general northward motion from 72-96 h and recurvature into the
westerlies after that time. The track guidance is in much better
agreement than this time yesterday, and Elsa is expected to pass
near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After
that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern
United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new NHC forecast
track has only minor adjustments from the previous one, and it lies
near the various consensus models.
Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at
least partly due to the fast forward motion. While the forward
speed is forecast to decrease over the next few days, continued
westerly shear and land interaction are expected to cause additional
weakening. Indeed, by 60 h, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as
a weak system with some separation between the low- and mid-level
centers. While some shear is likely to continue when the storm is
near or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, upper-level divergence
associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for
some re-intensification. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for
more weakening in the first 48 h than previously forecast and then
shows re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first
72 h, the forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
Although Elsa is now a tropical storm, hurricane warnings remain in
effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti at this
time, as conditions have not yet reached their worst there and the
possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due
to a convective burst.
Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the
degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are
urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average
NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.
Key Messages:
1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti and
the Dominican Republic, where near-hurricane conditions and
dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening.
2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman
Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida
Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding
and minor river flooding will be possible.
3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
central Cuba Sunday night and Monday.
4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and
the southern Florida Peninsula. This risk will spread northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts
of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however
uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's
potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba.
Interests in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should
monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 17.0N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of
Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and
Matanzas.
The Government of Jamaica has changed the Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, CinemaScope, and Matanzas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday
when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern
Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or
Monday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.
Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite imagery indicate that Elsa has weakened some since the
last advisory. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum
surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt. The
aircraft-reported central pressure is near 999 mb and gradually
rising, In addition, the center was exposed for a few hours,
although it is now located at the northwestern edge of a new
convective burst. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity
is reduced to 60 kt.
The initial motion is now 295/25. Elsa is approaching a weakness in
the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the
eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to
move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely
to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the
western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic
situated to the east of the this low. This evolution should cause
Elsa to slow its current breakneck forward speed during the next day
or so, then turn northwestward between 36-60 h, followed by a
general northward motion from 72-96 h and recurvature into the
westerlies after that time. The track guidance is in much better
agreement than this time yesterday, and Elsa is expected to pass
near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After
that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern
United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new NHC forecast
track has only minor adjustments from the previous one, and it lies
near the various consensus models.
Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at
least partly due to the fast forward motion. While the forward
speed is forecast to decrease over the next few days, continued
westerly shear and land interaction are expected to cause additional
weakening. Indeed, by 60 h, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as
a weak system with some separation between the low- and mid-level
centers. While some shear is likely to continue when the storm is
near or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, upper-level divergence
associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for
some re-intensification. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for
more weakening in the first 48 h than previously forecast and then
shows re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first
72 h, the forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
Although Elsa is now a tropical storm, hurricane warnings remain in
effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti at this
time, as conditions have not yet reached their worst there and the
possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due
to a convective burst.
Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the
degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are
urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average
NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.
Key Messages:
1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti and
the Dominican Republic, where near-hurricane conditions and
dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening.
2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman
Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida
Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding
and minor river flooding will be possible.
3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
central Cuba Sunday night and Monday.
4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and
the southern Florida Peninsula. This risk will spread northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts
of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however
uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's
potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba.
Interests in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should
monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 17.0N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
