EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 07/13/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 54 60 61 56 51 46 38 32 25 17 N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 54 60 61 56 51 46 38 32 25 17 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 48 48 44 39 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 5 4 4 6 8 9 16 17 16 17 22 26 28 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 1 -2 0 -3 0 1 3 4 4 3 4 3 3
SHEAR DIR 58 53 52 10 347 293 267 247 232 226 252 244 255 249 249 258 270
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.2 26.3 25.6 24.7 23.9 22.4 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.9
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 158 154 149 135 125 118 108 101 86 82 80 79 77 80
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 67 66 66 66 61 57 53 49 47 44 40 35 34 30
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 11 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -16 -17 -23 -24 -25 -16 -12 6 3 18 -4 5 0 -1 -18
200 MB DIV 16 9 23 37 30 17 17 4 -10 -25 -28 -22 -29 -48 -36 -39 -52
700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 1 4 3 2 8 9 11 15 12 10
LAND (KM) 869 897 955 1003 998 1009 1044 1065 1076 1101 1159 1198 1296 1441 1615 1709 1869
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.8 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.4 111.7 112.9 114.1 116.0 117.5 118.7 119.7 120.7 122.0 123.7 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 10 7 6 6 6 8 10 11 11 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 25 23 18 17 27 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 20. 17. 14. 11. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 31. 26. 21. 16. 8. 2. -5. -13. -21.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 109.1

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 5.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 18.1% 17.5% 16.9% 0.0% 17.3% 14.8% 11.7%
Logistic: 3.6% 18.2% 12.0% 5.8% 2.0% 9.9% 6.4% 5.6%
Bayesian: 0.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.8% 12.8% 9.9% 7.6% 0.7% 9.1% 7.3% 5.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

It looks like future Felicia will get a good deal of ACE units if it does not climb too fast in latitud.

[Kingarabian]

It looks like future Felicia will get a good deal of ACE units if it does not climb too fast in latitud.

Possible but that's if it develops at all. Other than the GFS which attempts to make it a hurricane in 3 days, the rest of the models barely develop it. The Euro only wants to develop it in the CPAC. The system behind this one has better potential.

[Yellow Evan]

It looks like future Felicia will get a good deal of ACE units if it does not climb too fast in latitud.

Possible but that's if it develops at all. Other than the GFS which attempts to make it a hurricane in 3 days, the rest of the models barely develop it. The Euro only wants to develop it in the CPAC. The system behind this one has better potential.

This close enough to genesis as is that I’m fairly confident it develops. 12z ECMWF likely under initialized.

[Kingarabian]

It looks like future Felicia will get a good deal of ACE units if it does not climb too fast in latitud.

Possible but that's if it develops at all. Other than the GFS which attempts to make it a hurricane in 3 days, the rest of the models barely develop it. The Euro only wants to develop it in the CPAC. The system behind this one has better potential.

This close enough to genesis as is that I’m fairly confident it develops. 12z ECMWF likely under initialized.

Yeah looks pretty good but I'm getting some Carlos pre genesis vibes.



Plus with the way the NHC has been conservative in naming systems this season, it could remain an invest for a little longer than expected.

[aspen]

HWRF is finally running for 96E. Watch it blow this up into a Cat 3 lol. The first HWRF runs always overdo the intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF is finally running for 96E. Watch it blow this up into a Cat 3 lol. The first HWRF runs always overdo the intensity.

[Kingarabian]

In regards to 96E, the globals are coming into agreement on track. The GFS tracks whats left of this 96E's vort S,W into the CPAC because of a strong high similar to what the Euro has been showing.The major difference continues to be intensity, as the GFS quickly strengthens it and gradually spins it down due to increasing shear, while the Euro generally has been wanting to strengthen 96E once it reaches 140W. The Euro keeps the STJ situated more north of Hawaii compared to the GFS which is allowing for a less hostile shear environment in the CPAC.

So one way this could be a big ACE system is if the GFS intensity forecast verifies and the Euro shear forecast verifies.

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to show increasing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for continued development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Wednesday
while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

[aspen]

In regards to 96E, the globals are coming into agreement on track. The GFS tracks whats left of this 96E's vort S,W into the CPAC because of a strong high similar to what the Euro has been showing.The major difference continues to be intensity, as the GFS quickly strengthens it and gradually spins it down due to increasing shear, while the Euro generally has been wanting to strengthen 96E once it reaches 140W. The Euro keeps the STJ situated more north of Hawaii compared to the GFS which is allowing for a less hostile shear environment in the CPAC.

So one way this could be a big ACE system is if the GFS intensity forecast verifies and the Euro shear forecast verifies.

That seems to be the solution the 18z HWRF is forecasting. After peaking as a borderline Cat 3 in 42-48 hours, it weakens to ~970 mbar and refuses to die, keeping a moisture pocket for as long as it can. This is an initial HWRF run for an invest, so take this with a grain of salt for now.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF. Simply to come back and look at it when it busts.


It makes it annular for a while so it's not that crazy though.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 132359
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 13/2330Z

C. 13.9N

D. 111.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 WHITE BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE CSC WHICH
MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 2.0. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 1.5 AND THE PT AGREES
WITH THE DT AND IS ALSO EQUAL TO 2.0 THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A BETTER CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OBSERVED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro now develops it into a moderate TS through 90 hours.

18z Euro has the same track as the 18z HWRF. Just a bit more south.

[cycloneye]

Guidance is bullish for the most part.

[AlphaToOmega]

Guidance has been trending bullish. I think a hurricane out of EP962021 is likely, and we could see a Category II or even Category III hurricane.

[ElectricStorm]

Not saying it's going to happen, but I guess there's a possibility that we could see a situation like Erick and Flossie in 2019, where the eastern system appears like it has a better chance to become strong, but the western one becomes the strong one instead. As of right now, I'm still leaning towards the eastern one being stronger, but the uptick in guidance for 96E is interesting.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, Yellow Evan.

What a consensus from the models on the track that dont gain latitudes. That will help it with intensity.

[aspen]

This is a very, very good looking invest. It already has banding features and more hot towers are popping in a centralized location that seems to be where the LLC is forming. Assuming trends continue, we should have TD6E or TS Felicia no later that 5am.