WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS IN-FA.

Issued at 2021/07/17 19:10 UTC
Analisys at 07/17 18 UTC
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N22°10′(22.2°)
E132°35′(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
30-kt wind area E560km(300NM)
W220km(120NM)

[Meow]

JMA upgrades to TS IN-FA.

Issued at 2021/07/17 19:10 UTC
Analisys at 07/17 18 UTC
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N22°10′(22.2°)
E132°35′(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
30-kt wind area E560km(300NM)
W220km(120NM)

The track is now much closer to Taiwan.

[Hayabusa]

Got even more complex scenario with a possible Fujiwhara with 99W

[Hayabusa]

Scattered flower

[aspen]

The latest GFS and Euro runs have In-Fa suddenly taking a sharp dive SW into Taiwan, potentially due to a Fujiwhara interaction with 99W. The GFS has consistently been a lot slower than the Euro.

[ElectricStorm]

Newest JTWC forecast has this going for northern Taiwan. I believe this would be their first typhoon landfall since Lekima 2019 so hopefully they're ready. Currently forecast to be a Cat 2 but I'm guessing it will be stronger than that. Not to mention they might get some impacts from whatever becomes of 99W as well.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ed_2001]

Newest JTWC forecast has this going for northern Taiwan. I believe this would be their first typhoon landfall since Lekima 2019 so hopefully they're ready. Currently forecast to be a Cat 2 but I'm guessing it will be stronger than that. Not to mention they might get some impacts from whatever becomes of 99W as well.

Actually, Lekima never hit Taiwan, and Taiwan’s definitely been under a typhoon drought since the end of the 2016 season, with the last TY to directly hit being Nesat in 2017 as a Cat 1. That four year gap is pretty unusual for one of the most cyclone-prone area of the world.

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2106 IN-FA (2106) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 24.2N 131.3E POOR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

While convection isn’t that deep, In-Fa seems to be finally stacked and doesn’t have any displaced convection. With nightfall and Dmax approaching, we could see some more convective bursts to further tighten up the circulation.

Seems like the HWRF was right about In-Fa’s large size.

[Sciencerocks]

[InfernoFlameCat]

That is one strange eye. Would barely call that an eye, such a weak eyewall.

[ElectricStorm]

If the HWRF verifies, this thing might have a massive eye on approach to Taiwan...

[Ed_2001]

The operational runs are stilling bouncing around quite a bit and this is just one run, but 0z Euro brings a catastrophic amount of rain to Zhejiang by pulling a Harvey-like stall and linger post-landfall, starting around 4-5 days out.

[Sciencerocks]