ATL: GRACE - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
6Z Euro
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:0z ECMF Wind tracks - many more members this morning
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMdsS03/ecmdi.jpg [/url]
That's making a line towards Louisiana on this run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:0z ECMF Wind tracks - many more members this morning
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMdsS03/ecmdi.jpg [/url]
Looks like quite a few members take this towards the central Gulf later on. Huge spread of the ensembles past the Lesser Antilles though.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
12z ICON makes landfall in Puerto Rico, but then the storm starts curving north, missing DR and entering the Bahamas.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:0z ECMF Wind tracks - many more members this morning
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMdsS03/ecmdi.jpg [/url]
Does anyone have a comparable graphic that includes all the models at a 240hr time frame?
I'm curious to see how good the consensus is that far out, between them all.
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
aspen wrote:12z ICON makes landfall in Puerto Rico, but then the storm starts curving north, missing DR and entering the Bahamas.
It does not really look like it's going to have a lot of escape opportunities either.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:0z ECMF Wind tracks - many more members this morning
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMdsS03/ecmdi.jpg [/url]
Bermuda to Mexico lol
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425494071737569287
It seems like a role reversal.
Last season, you couldn't get the Euro to genesis until last minute, while the GFS / FV3 were both spitting out model storms like crazy.
This season, the GFS / GEFS seem slow to genesis, while the Euro ensembles are sniffing out storms many days ahead out GFS.
Were there any changes to either globals, or is it just this years environment?
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425494071737569287
It seems like a role reversal.
Last season, you couldn't get the Euro to genesis until last minute, while the GFS / FV3 were both spitting out model storms like crazy.
This season, the GFS / GEFS seem slow to genesis, while the Euro ensembles are sniffing out storms many days ahead out GFS.
Were there any changes to either globals, or is it just this years environment?
Don't forget the HWRF, which was the best predictor of short-term structure and the best intensity model (however ridiculous it sounds) last year, but failed horrendously with Elsa and isn't looking too great with Fred for now.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425494071737569287
It seems like a role reversal.
Last season, you couldn't get the Euro to genesis until last minute, while the GFS / FV3 were both spitting out model storms like crazy.
This season, the GFS / GEFS seem slow to genesis, while the Euro ensembles are sniffing out storms many days ahead out GFS.
Were there any changes to either globals, or is it just this years environment?
The EPS maybe but the Euro op has been terrible. The GFS and GEFS haven’t been performing that bad if you ask me.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
12Z Euro
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/6I9xAym.gif
Looks like the ridge builds back in after Fred moves onshore.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Did the GEFS just poof it? I just went through August 26th and don't see it, unlike the previous run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
In 2020/2021 modeling, if the Euro even shows a closed low, that’s a sign that something will likely get going.
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