ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[sma10]

This is looking quite healthy this afternoon

[AlphaToOmega]

[Sciencerocks]

[CyclonicFury]

Looks nearly classifiable. NHC will probably call this a TD at 11pm if the convection persists.

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4452/j0SWtr.gif

Looks like Henri is coming within the next 24 hours. The 12z HWRF run will bust massively if that happens.

Also, props to the ICON for being the first model to suggest development here.

[EquusStorm]

Definitely a TC already, obvious major influence on low level flow. Gonna have to back that up a good half day or more in the TCR

[AlphaToOmega]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152057
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to updated the discussion
of the low-pressure system northeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on
Tropical Depression Grace, located over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the
Dominican Republic.

Updated: Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm
activity has become better organized this afternoon in association
with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located about
160 miles northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development, and if these development
trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the
low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph,
near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system,
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island
later tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

[Kingarabian]

Looks like they want to wait a little longer to make sure it sustains itself. But in prior years, this would've been called already.

[Kazmit]

Crazy how tiny this thing is. Right now in Bermuda it's sunny with a 10kt breeze.

[aspen]

Looks like they want to wait a little longer to make sure it sustains itself. But in prior years, this would've been called already.

It looked like it had a closed circulation as early as this morning. It’s been sustaining itself for half a day so far and only seems to be improving.

We can probably discard the 12z HWRF run. It showed essentially no development prior to Tuesday, but as we can clearly see, 96L is well on its way to becoming Henri. The 06z run looked like it had the source of the shear the NHC mentioned, but it seemed to help Hurricane Henri ventilate instead of ripping it apart. That’ll be something to watch out for.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If this forms, I think it will be the first use of the name Henri not in the GOM

[AlphaToOmega]

If this forms, I think it will be the first use of the name Henri not in the GOM

Henri in 2015 formed from an upper-level trough southeast of Bahama.

[IcyTundra]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4452/j0SWtr.gif

Looks like Henri is coming within the next 24 hours. The 12z HWRF run will bust massively if that happens.

Also, props to the ICON for being the first model to suggest development here.

ICON has been surprisingly decent this year.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4452/j0SWtr.gif

Looks like Henri is coming within the next 24 hours. The 12z HWRF run will bust massively if that happens.

Also, props to the ICON for being the first model to suggest development here.

ICON has been surprisingly decent this year.

Part of it is because everybody else is bad.

[zhukm29]

Surprisingly, both Grace and Henri have failed to attain hurricane status past their first usages, despite G and H often occurring during peak season. With any of those two break that streak this year?

[Category5Kaiju]

Isn't Henri French and not actually pronounced as "Henry" much like what many would think? Anyways, I do think we will see Henri very soon; for those who voted on that poll when it would form for the time period before August 21, congrats!!

[AlphaToOmega]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152350
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on
Tropical Depression Grace, located about 100 miles south-southeast
of the Dominican Republic.

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that showers
and thunderstorms associated with a small but well-defined area of
low pressure located northeast of Bermuda have continued to become
better organized during the past few hours. If this trend continues,
advisories will likely be initiated on a new tropical depression
later tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the
south or southwest during the next day or so, and then turn westward
on Tuesday, passing near or just east and south of Bermuda.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system,
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Stormybajan]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152350
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on
Tropical Depression Grace, located about 100 miles south-southeast
of the Dominican Republic.

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that showers
and thunderstorms associated with a small but well-defined area of
low pressure located northeast of Bermuda have continued to become
better organized during the past few hours. If this trend continues,
advisories will likely be initiated on a new tropical depression
later tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the
south or southwest during the next day or so, and then turn westward
on Tuesday, passing near or just east and south of Bermuda.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system,
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Wow. 90/90 already looks like maybe TD8 tomorrow morning at 2 am?

[Subtrop]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (96L)//
WTNT21 KNGU 152300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 34.2N 62.8W TO 31.8N 62.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 151200Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 62.8W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. EARLIER TODAY, SATELLITE WIND DERIVED DATA AND VISIBLE IMAGES
INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER, LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA, HAD DEVELOPED A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED SUREFACE
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCTIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM TONIGHT OR
MONDAY IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE WHILE IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 TO 6 KT.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM FRED (06L) WARNINGS (WTNT01 KNGU)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE (07L) WARNINGS
(WTNT02 KNGU) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162300Z.//
BT
NNNN

[abajan]

Isn't Henri French and not actually pronounced as "Henry" much like what many would think? Anyways, I do think we will see Henri very soon; for those who voted on that poll when it would form for the time period before August 21, congrats!!

Yes, it's pronounced ahn-REE or on-REE. But I'll bet many in the media will get it totally wrong. Just like Isaias.