ATL: IDA - Models

[Cpv17]

Lets just remember how far off models can be 6 days in advance and how the GFS and Euro have been wrong many times over the last couple years. I think it is too early to know if a model "is on to something" and these models will continue to shift run to run until we get a well defined center that forms which probably won't happen until Friday or maybe Thursday. The EPS and GEFS give us a good idea of the areas that should keep a close eye on this and hopefully we will have a good idea of where this is going to go sometime this weekend.

Very true. I definitely agree but the models did follow suit of yesterdays 12z Euro.

[cycloneye]

[toad strangler]

Yeah the Euro is leading me to believe this.. the Euro might be onto something and the other models could be playing catch-up.

THere is no storm yet.

There doesn’t have to be. Models have improved a lot throughout the years. You don’t necessarily need a coc for models to latch onto something these days. Yeah it helps a lot but not as much as it did 10+ years ago.

wxman57 said the absolute complete opposite of this just 2 hours ago.

[Hammy]

Yeah the Euro is leading me to believe this.. the Euro might be onto something and the other models could be playing catch-up.

THere is no storm yet.

There doesn’t have to be. Models have improved a lot throughout the years. You don’t necessarily need a coc for models to latch onto something these days. Yeah it helps a lot but not as much as it did 10+ years ago.

Euro had a tropical wave for Grace just 72h before it was a hurricane, around the time the center was less organized. Euro seems like it needs a center to resolve to really get a clear picture, at least in the deep tropics.

[Keldeo1997]

https://i.imgur.com/Z5WN8Q4.png

I don't think I've ever seen Dark purple on a ensemble plot.

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/Z5WN8Q4.png

https://i.imgur.com/RSkGmE1.png

That's still quite a spread there. Nothing to get worked up over just yet. Also, what's up with some members pushing it into the EPAC?

[ronjon]

That 500 mb ridge is breaking down in the 5-6 day time frame over the SE. Will have to see how it plays out. I don't think even the central gulf coast is off the table yet. GFS is showing extremely favorable conditions for a major.

[ROCK]

That 18Z GFS run wow. That would take out the west end of Galveston

[ROCK]

That 500 mb ridge is breaking down in the 5-6 day time frame over the SE. Will have to see how it plays out. I don't think even the central gulf coast is off the table yet. GFS is showing extremely favorable conditions for a major.

31C ssts Spells major for someone

[SoupBone]

In the FWIW department, the 18Z UKMET sends a TS into Tex/Mex.

[South Texas Storms]

In the FWIW department, the 18Z UKMET sends a TS into Tex/Mex.

That was the 12z run. UKMET only runs at 0z and 12z.

[SoupBone]

In the FWIW department, the 18Z UKMET sends a TS into Tex/Mex.

That was the 12z run. UKMET only runs at 0z and 12z.

Yeah I deleted it after I noticed that. Still learning the weathermodels site.

[grapealcoholic]

18z HWRF parent for 97L takes east of the Yucutan

[NDG]

The trend by the Euro Ensembles.

[IcyTundra]

The trend by the Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/SVsU7kq.gif

hmm slight shift east.

[hurricane2025]

Hwrf go till end u can see it in gom

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=102

[NDG]

Hwrf go till end u can see it in gom

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=102

Yeah, it is probably a preview of what it will do with 99L on its 0z run.

[Kohlecane]

Hwrf go till end u can see it in gom

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=102

Will be interesting to see that and HMON over the next few days.

[ROCK]

18Z NAV is LA which is about a 900 mile shift from the 12Z lol

[catskillfire51]

18Z NAV is LA which is about a 900 mile shift from the 12Z lol

What site do you use to see it already?