ATL: LARRY - Models

[ColdMiser123]

Here is the 18Z EPS at 144 (end of run): All 51 members are still recurving with already a NW to NNW movement by ~hour 120. And this includes those members moving W to WNW pretty far south initially in the eastern Atlantic. Granted, the mean is a bit further west than the prior runs. But still there's more than enough upper troughing coming into the NE US that follows Ida which all serve to keep the WAR quite weak for the next 7-10 days and thus enough steering to allow for a recurve well away from the SE US.

Nothing is ever close to being set in stone this far in advance in the tropics. So, it obviously is still worth monitoring. But I continue to like the odds a lot right now of avoiding the SE US. Besides, a storm named Larry shouldn't be one to fear.

Also, Bermuda, Canada, and even the NE US are in somewhat more danger, especially Bermuda. But that can be addressed later.

https://i.imgur.com/wek1nVP.png

For what it's worth, that is a sizable shift SW from the 12z EPS.

Odds are this curves out to sea given the pattern, but it's still worth watching for potential impacts over the next few days.

[LarryWx]

Here is the 18Z EPS at 144 (end of run): All 51 members are still recurving with already a NW to NNW movement by ~hour 120. And this includes those members moving W to WNW pretty far south initially in the eastern Atlantic. Granted, the mean is a bit further west than the prior runs. But still there's more than enough upper troughing coming into the NE US that follows Ida which all serve to keep the WAR quite weak for the next 7-10 days and thus enough steering to allow for a recurve well away from the SE US.

Nothing is ever close to being set in stone this far in advance in the tropics. So, it obviously is still worth monitoring. But I continue to like the odds a lot right now of avoiding the SE US. Besides, a storm named Larry shouldn't be one to fear.

Also, Bermuda, Canada, and even the NE US are in somewhat more danger, especially Bermuda. But that can be addressed later.

https://i.imgur.com/wek1nVP.png

For what it's worth, that is a sizable shift SW from the 12z EPS.

Odds are this curves out to sea given the pattern, but it's still worth watching for potential impacts over the next few days.

Yeah, I saw and noted the shift vs earlier EPS runs. Always worth watching, regardless. But I'm not at all nervous about it at this time here in the SE US.

[Blown Away]

Here is the 18Z EPS at 144 (end of run): All 51 members are still recurving with already a NW to NNW movement by ~hour 120. And this includes those members moving W to WNW pretty far south initially in the eastern Atlantic. Granted, the mean is a bit further west than the prior runs. But still there's more than enough upper troughing coming into the NE US that follows Ida which all serve to keep the WAR quite weak for the next 7-10 days and thus enough steering to allow for a recurve well away from the SE US.

Nothing is ever close to being set in stone this far in advance in the tropics. So, it obviously is still worth monitoring. But I continue to like the odds a lot right now of avoiding the SE US. Besides, a storm named Larry shouldn't be one to fear.

Also, Bermuda, Canada, and even the NE US are in somewhat more danger, especially Bermuda. But that can be addressed later.

https://i.imgur.com/wek1nVP.png

For what it's worth, that is a sizable shift SW from the 12z EPS.

Odds are this curves out to sea given the pattern, but it's still worth watching for potential impacts over the next few days.

Yeah, I saw and noted the shift vs earlier EPS runs. Always worth watching, regardless. But I'm not at all nervous about it at this time here in the SE US.

Looking at the SFWMD site, looks like 18z EECF went way W.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1432345538330914818

[CrazyC83]

I've been wondering where these out to sea forecasts have come from too. All I see is ridging north of 25N - I'm wondering where they are finding the weakness.

[Hurricane Mike]

Get forward to another 10 days of model watching.

[IcyTundra]

I've been wondering where these out to sea forecasts have come from too. All I see is ridging north of 25N - I'm wondering where they are finding the weakness.

All models are showing a recurve so that's probably why. Irma and Florence were suppose to go OTS though so we will continue to keep an eye on this wave.

[IsabelaWeather]

I've been wondering where these out to sea forecasts have come from too. All I see is ridging north of 25N - I'm wondering where they are finding the weakness.

All models are showing a recurve so that's probably why. Irma and Florence were suppose to go OTS though so we will continue to keep an eye on this wave.

Just remember OTS doesnt necessarily mean no impacts, Maria was an OTS storm but blasted Dominica and here. This is north and east of maria but still, could theoretically hit us still and go OTS.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS/GEFS very heavily favoring missing the US.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: gets it down to 960 mb!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.1N 27.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2021 36 12.1N 27.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 02.09.2021 48 12.4N 31.6W 1003 36
1200UTC 02.09.2021 60 12.7N 35.8W 1000 42
0000UTC 03.09.2021 72 12.9N 39.7W 997 43
1200UTC 03.09.2021 84 13.6N 43.2W 991 47
0000UTC 04.09.2021 96 15.0N 46.1W 983 55
1200UTC 04.09.2021 108 16.6N 48.8W 974 58
0000UTC 05.09.2021 120 18.7N 51.0W 969 62
1200UTC 05.09.2021 132 20.8N 53.4W 968 58
0000UTC 06.09.2021 144 22.8N 55.5W 960 69

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS the last 2 runs show a random TD or TS behind this causing a random weakness and early recurve but that low probably won’t be there so siding more with the UKMET and EURO models for now but that could change down the line

[LarryWx]

Edit: 0Z Euro goes fishing way out there

[kevin]

In terms of US impacts the 00z Euro is fishy, but it does get awfully close to Bermuda. 00z euro peaks at a whopping 955 mbar btw.

[kevin]

One euro member goes down to 936 mbar. Can anyone recall when the last time was that a euro member showed such a low pressure? Perhaps Eta, I think euro had a 930s Eta run when it didn't make landfall and just sat in the Caribbean. Even 12 hrs before landfall euro didn't get below 950 mbar for Ida and in the early lifetime of Ida (before Cuba) all euro members always stayed above 970 mbar. Probably the biggest MDR model support storm since Teddy.

[Blown Away]

One euro member goes down to 936 mbar. Can anyone recall when the last time was that a euro member showed such a low pressure? Perhaps Eta, I think euro had a 930s Eta run when it didn't make landfall and just sat in the Caribbean. Even 12 hrs before landfall euro didn't get below 950 mbar for Ida and in the early lifetime of Ida (before Cuba) all euro members always stayed above 970 mbar. Probably the biggest MDR model support storm since Teddy.

https://i.imgur.com/TzqxiRr.png

Wow, not often you see pink in the Euro and 936 mb. Do you have the 12z to compare? Still likely OTS, but I think there is SW shifting each run?


06z model guidance a noticeable SW shift.

[aspen]

06z GFS has less interaction with the wave behind 90L and has a later recurve, although it’s still the earliest to recurve out of the models. The 06z ICON also shifted W a bit since Kate doesn’t get as strong and create a big gap in the ridge.

00z HWRF reminds me a lot of the HWRF runs for Teddy, which constantly forecast a gigantic eye that never materialized until well past peak intensity. We could see a similar evolution with Larry.

[kevin]

One euro member goes down to 936 mbar. Can anyone recall when the last time was that a euro member showed such a low pressure? Perhaps Eta, I think euro had a 930s Eta run when it didn't make landfall and just sat in the Caribbean. Even 12 hrs before landfall euro didn't get below 950 mbar for Ida and in the early lifetime of Ida (before Cuba) all euro members always stayed above 970 mbar. Probably the biggest MDR model support storm since Teddy.

https://i.imgur.com/TzqxiRr.png

Wow, not often you see pink in the Euro and 936 mb. Do you have the 12z to compare? Still likely OTS, but I think there is SW shifting each run?

https://i.imgur.com/CQ48Jqt.jpg
06z model guidance a noticeable SW shift.

Below 12z and 00z. Especially if you open them side by side and switch tabs, you can definitely see a SW shift in the latest ensemble. Still not an immediate threat to the US, but another SW shift could bring it close to the islands or Bermuda once it recurves.

12Z yesterday


00Z

[aspen]

Pretty good initialization on the 06z HWRF, showing a double-lobed wave with a north blob around 11-12N and a south blob around 7-9N. On this run, the north blob wins out (at first I thought they kind of merged) and the system concentrates around 12N, moving almost due west with minute gains in latitude for the next 48-54 hours.



However, just like with Teddy last year, it really wants an EWRC to occur very soon and give this a 50-70 mile wide eye. I think it's overdoing the potential for a big eye.

[kevin]

06z HWRF makes this a TS at 15 hours from initialization and a hurricane on Friday.

[Blown Away]

Euro is trending towards more ridging later in the forecast...