EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 09/06/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 66 75 79 76 69 60 54 47 43 37 34
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 66 75 79 76 69 60 54 47 43 37 34
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 53 56 55 49 41 33 26 21 18 16
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 7 7 9 14 20 25 21 20 12 11 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 3 5 2 2 5 3 4 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 16 42 25 35 332 315 263 239 236 192 175 174 165 158 155 200 273
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.4 25.7 25.3 23.6 22.0 21.7 20.8 20.6 20.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 150 150 147 147 147 139 121 118 99 82 79 69 65 64
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 66 65 63 62 59 55 53 50 47 41 38 35 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 10 12 15 20 22 23 22 21 18 18 16 15 14 13
850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 27 18 18 49 64 68 67 42 34 11 13 8 18 12 12
200 MB DIV 40 54 45 29 21 47 73 23 10 2 -27 -8 -8 -14 -1 6 -5
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 6 3 5 -2 11 -2 4 -2
LAND (KM) 290 298 309 321 332 350 384 356 320 348 457 498 652 830 980 1053 1096
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.7 22.2 23.7 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.3 109.0 110.2 112.0 114.2 116.7 119.0 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 3 2 3 6 8 11 13 14 12 12 10 9 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 19 21 21 20 20 19 15 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 30. 28. 26. 23. 20. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 22. 21. 18. 13. 12. 9. 7. 6. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 28. 41. 50. 54. 51. 44. 35. 29. 22. 18. 12. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 106.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 6.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 16.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.8% 33.3% 17.7% 10.5% 3.9% 23.7% 28.8% 7.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 2.3% 19.1% 12.4% 3.5% 1.3% 14.2% 15.3% 2.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 15.0% 29.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

I mean conditions look prime for at least a hurricane to develop within the next 72 hours based on that SHIPS run.

Looks like this won't be moving into the gulf of California so odds of increased moisture for the SWUSA are diminishing.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an broad area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
just offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, outer rainbands will
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of
the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

New center forming way further north. This probably increases the threat to Baja California Peninsula and the United States.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS a little weaker, center initialization a little too far south.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 062353
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 18.2N

D. 106.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT EQUAL 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 09/07/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 51 62 68 74 72 70 66 64 65 67 68 70
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 51 62 68 74 72 70 66 64 65 67 68 70
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 48 50 50 46 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 4 4 2 0 9 6 8 7 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 4 7 10 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 32 33 64 40 48 15 24 251 218 230 197 253 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.3 26.0 25.2 24.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 151 150 150 147 137 123 115 107 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 65 65 65 62 63 60 55 50 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 12 16 18 19 20 20 19 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 32 15 19 36 50 66 59 56 22 13 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 67 61 43 36 54 65 57 18 23 -25 -22 -27 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 3 -2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 284 311 343 364 386 423 447 357 264 259 278 320 375 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 2 2 3 6 9 11 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 20 19 17 14 13 9 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 30. 29. 30. 30. 31. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 16. 15. 10. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 26. 37. 43. 49. 47. 45. 41. 39. 40. 42. 43. 45.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 106.7

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 16.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.7% 4.5% 8.2% 3.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 9.7% 7.4% 0.6% 0.2% 7.6% 8.3% 1.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 13.0% 35.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS further east and again weaker.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, continue to show some signs of organization. Although
recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation remains
broad, environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical
depression during the next day or so while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of
Mexico. Regardless of development, outer rainbands from the
disturbance are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco
through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 070549
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 07/0530Z

C. 17.8N

D. 107.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT ARE BOTH EQUAL TO 1.O. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF same intensity as 12z just a little further east.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 09/07/21 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 41 51 57 64 65 62 58 55 50 46 42 38 34
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 41 51 57 64 65 62 58 55 50 46 42 38 34
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 43 42 39 35 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 3 4 5 5 8 7 10 8 5 8 8 9 10 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -5 -4 -3 0 4 7 7 10 15 11 12 11 8 2
SHEAR DIR 32 54 48 47 32 262 264 241 208 175 194 133 153 97 139 140 172
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 26.3 25.5 25.1 23.8 22.5 22.0 22.0 21.8 21.7
POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 149 149 148 142 127 118 114 101 86 79 79 79 79
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 69 68 63 64 64 59 58 56 54 51 47 45 39 35 32 31 28
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 10 11 12 14 17 17 20 18 17 16 15 14 13 10 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 21 40 53 63 66 53 24 11 -6 7 -3 0 1 4 -3
200 MB DIV 56 37 16 36 50 33 35 21 6 -35 -24 -33 -18 -16 -26 -13 -18
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 -1 1 7 3 9 1 9
LAND (KM) 324 344 365 383 402 435 401 308 320 325 432 505 653 759 829 969 1192
LAT (DEG N) 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 5 8 9 10 10 10 10 7 5 5 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 17 15 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 29. 27. 25. 22. 20. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 15. 15. 13. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 32. 39. 40. 37. 33. 30. 25. 21. 17. 13. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 107.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 5.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.2% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 15.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 8.0% 3.9% 1.8% 0.7% 3.5% 4.0% 1.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 9.2% 7.2% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0% 6.5% 0.6%
DTOPS: 0.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 14.0% 44.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just
offshore of the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, outer
rainbands from the disturbance are likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of
Colima and Jalisco through Tuesday. Additional information on this
system can be found in the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 071207
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 07/1130Z

C. 17.7N

D. 107.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. THE 0926Z
AMSR2 89 GHZ MW PASS REVEALED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND BANDING STRUCTURES
ON THE W AND SW SIDE OF THE LLCC AND ON EIR IMAGERY BANDING STRUCTURES
CAN BE SEEN ON THE N, NE, AND SE SIDES OF THE LLCC INDICATING THE SYSTEM
IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET IS 1.0
AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS DUE TO LIMITING T-NO. CHANGE
OF ONLY 1.0 IN PREVIOUS 6 HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to increase in organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves
generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the
coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, outer rainbands from
the disturbance are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and
Jalisco through tonight. Additional information on this system,
including storm warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Still very broad but might be classifiable. More importantly this is wasting valuable time to intensify. 12z ECMWF comes in stronger and more northeast however.

[Kingarabian]

Looks classifiable on visible imagery.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 09/07/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 61 67 68 70 63 59 55 50 44 38 39 40
V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 61 67 68 70 63 59 55 50 44 38 39 40
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 45 51 55 54 51 46 39 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 1 3 0 6 9 10 7 4 6 8 3 0 8 15 19 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -5 0 4 6 8 5 9 6 7 8 6 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 83 87 91 229 245 256 254 239 161 174 292 23 111 118 110 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.1 27.3 25.5 25.3 25.3 23.8 23.5 22.9 22.3 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 146 144 145 137 118 116 115 99 96 90 83 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 60 58 59 57 54 52 48 46 40 36 31 27 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 15 17 18 19 18 20 17 15 13 13 10 8 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 56 56 66 71 51 32 26 9 0 -2 29 23 19 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 24 29 62 59 39 17 22 12 -1 -18 -51 -40 -21 -37 -21 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 4 6 0 4 2 5 8 6 6 1 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 326 347 367 370 373 380 263 233 269 352 401 491 645 780 901 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 15 14 11 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. 17. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 14. 9. 7. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 31. 37. 38. 40. 33. 29. 25. 20. 14. 8. 9. 10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 107.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 6.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 24.3% 21.4% 20.3% 0.0% 18.6% 15.7% 12.8%
Logistic: 14.9% 28.8% 18.6% 10.6% 5.4% 11.1% 13.7% 4.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 8.9% 18.5% 13.5% 10.3% 1.8% 9.9% 9.8% 5.8%
DTOPS: 3.0% 28.0% 13.0% 10.0% 6.0% 9.0% 16.0% 15.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/07/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##