ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

I think this could be designated as PTC 14 tonight would be about 48 hours from impacting land so it would meet the criteria.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1436700058720874503




 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1436701580586278921




 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1436702668668514313




 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1436703865764827145

[Cpv17]

I’m really hoping this goes in further west. We’ve only gotten about 2” of rain here in the past six weeks.

[Clearcloudz]

I’m really hoping this goes in further west. We’ve only gotten about 2” of rain here in the past six weeks.

94L is one of those unique circumstances in which the middle route is by far the worst for impacts. Too far west and it dries out over land, too far east and the eastern half remains over water. Right in the middle, in the coastal plains of Texas, lies a point where moisture remains high.

[zzh]

TCFA issued

[Clearcloudz]

National Weather Service Houston Video Discussion

[youtube]https://youtu.be/r-5vawnov0I[/youtube]

[Sciencerocks]

[Cpv17]

National Weather Service Houston Video Discussion

https://youtu.be/r-5vawnov0I

Those higher totals need to be expanded further west IMO.

[Clearcloudz]

National Weather Service Houston Video Discussion

https://youtu.be/r-5vawnov0I

Those higher totals need to be expanded further west IMO.

They are probably leaning towards the GFS, crazy to think few years ago NWS and NHC used let the EURO set the precedence in these type of situations.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1436798131916652553

[Wampadawg]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1436798131916652553

Looking more and more like this will be an event in the Houston area.Although it won’t be a big Hurricane perhaps it will help kickstart the Ike Dike

[wxman57]

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

[jaguars_22]

Does that mean here in Victoria we could be dry slotted?

[sphelps8681]

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

What about the areas east of Houston. Like Beaumont/Lumberton area?

[Cpv17]

Does that mean here in Victoria we could be dry slotted?

Me and you both would be for the most part.

[Nimbus]

Strange that the three day 18Z HWRF forecast is tracking across Mexico into the Pacific yet the GFS is landfalling in the northern gulf coast? Huge moisture fetch across Florida down into the southern BOC where surface low appears to be moving off the coast after crossing Yucatan. 18Z HMON appears to be a compromise track probably into south Texas. Shear out of the south there now so not too worried yet unless the GFS track verifies.

[zzh]

A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions
of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday
or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then
northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional
development will be possible through the middle of next week if the
system remains over water, and interests along the western and
northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system tomorrow, if necessary.

Regardless of development, this disturbance will continue to produce
heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico, including the western
Yucatan Peninsula, through tonight which may lead to flash flooding
and mudslides. By late Sunday, heavy rain is expected to reach
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat
then continuing across those coasts through the middle of next week.
Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially
resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Latest Tropical Tidbits on 93L & 94L

[youtube]https://youtu.be/dnQDLu4FT8M[/youtube]

[AlphaToOmega]

[HurricaneBrain]

Likely a strong TS/cat 1 if future Nicholas stays offshore. I have it landfalling between Matagorda Bay and Port Arthur. Rain threat to the east, lopsided storm. Louisiana will see impacts IMO.