ATL: FRED - Models

[jlauderdal]

Cuba still waiting for their Cat2 from Elsa. One day hwrf will get it right.

Si Senor...HWRF creates max excitement but in reality it usually shoots blanks

[jlauderdal]

sucks that after excelling in 2020, the hwrf is likely about to be the donkey of 2021

Well the 2021 season is young but likely the hwrf isnt going to deliver

[aspen]

sucks that after excelling in 2020, the hwrf is likely about to be the donkey of 2021

To be fair, a high end TS is a reasonable upper limit for intensity while in the Caribbean. Not sure about intensity after the Greater Antilles because so much depends on exactly where it tracks and where the TUTT will be by then.

[hurricane2025]

I say cat 1 but I think the one in 10 days will be a major problem

[Steve]

The HWRF strengthens Potential Tropical Cyclone 06L into an 85-knot 797 mb hurricane. Storms in this area are very sensitive to initial conditions, for a subtle change in trajectory could mean the difference between dissipation over Hispaniola and rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Lol

[SFLcane]

[ScottNAtlanta]

The HWRF strengthens Potential Tropical Cyclone 06L into an 85-knot 797 mb hurricane. Storms in this area are very sensitive to initial conditions, for a subtle change in trajectory could mean the difference between dissipation over Hispaniola and rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Lol

I think that would be WAY under performing...

[tropicwatch]

https://i.postimg.cc/7ZwwZxPL/2-F95226-A-7156-4-FF1-816-B-6-C71-BFCE01-EB.gif

TVCN moving back over the south Florida peninsula is kind of interesting. I think NHC will give it one or two more runs to see if it verifies.

[SFLcane]

It seems to be a weakness in the ridge around the keys the models are starting to hint at.

[chaser1]

The HWRF strengthens Potential Tropical Cyclone 06L into an 85-knot 797 mb hurricane. Storms in this area are very sensitive to initial conditions, for a subtle change in trajectory could mean the difference between dissipation over Hispaniola and rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Lol

That sir, simply crosses the line. When it comes to "chasing" I've just learned to say "no mas" the moment surface pressures drop below 825mb

[AtlanticWind]

GFS stronger and on west coast of florida

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like a decent jump in intensity for the 00z GFS.

[AtlanticWind]

Solid hurricane near tampa in gfs

[lsuhurricane]

Very erratic movement once in the gulf for this GFS run. Steering clearly driven by competing factors

[ElectricStorm]

983mb into the big bend on 0z GFS

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a decent jump in intensity for the 00z GFS.

Yep, has a near cat2 hurricane near Cedar Key, it’s 6 1/2 days away so it could change, if this goes north of Hispaniola and through the Florida Straits it could conceivably become even stronger than the GFS depicts

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like a decent jump in intensity for the 00z GFS.

Yep, has a near cat2 hurricane near Cedar Key, it’s 6 1/2 days away so it could change, if this goes north of Hispaniola and through the Florida Straits it could conceivably become even stronger than the GFS depicts

Yeah, this isn't just an early season slop if it misses some land. Conditions are clearly favorable enough for somebody to get at least a cat 1.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS latest has it as a 983 mbar storm hitting the Panhandle on August 16

[Nuno]

https://i.postimg.cc/7ZwwZxPL/2-F95226-A-7156-4-FF1-816-B-6-C71-BFCE01-EB.gif

A month early, but reminiscent of Irma track-wise.

[sma10]

Yeah, well .. the 0Z GFS says "Good times" for the Keys over the next couple weeks