ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

NHC has it as a category 4 before landfall and they're normally on the conservative side with intensity forecasts. Definitely see it getting that far

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)

1pm Central


saved loop, big picture
https://i.imgur.com/SxUtFy0.gif

[Airboy]

AF VDM
Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)

[HurryKane]

Securing potential debris so pardon me for short messages, but St. Charles Parish (west of NO) at least is under mandatory evac which may explain some traffic observed as well.

I'm hearing that gas stations are dry all over the region, it that's they case hopefully people stuck in traffic don't run out of it.

After the Rita situation in Houston, I think the general consensus is that these kind of mass evacuations hurt more than they help. Evacuating a small town is one thing. But evacuating a million person metro is bound to leave alot of people more vulnerable than they might have been had they stayed in their neighborhood and went to the local gym or other sturdy structure.

Yes…right or wrong, that seems to be what the NOLA officials were trying to avoid with not issuing a *mandatory* evacuation but still recommending that people evacuate if they can.

And it’s already a parking lot There was a wreck on I-10 in Mississippi that is impeding east-bound flow; the impact on traffic was localized at first but now that traffic is picking up it has caused delays all the way back into Slidell and New Orleans.

If you’re evacuating at this point, consider setting Google Maps to avoid interstates, and instead route you via back roads, or leaving in the dead of night.

[tropicwatch]

Starting to shrink and become symetrical.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye popping out.

[Sciencerocks]

[SunnyThoughts]

Whether it makes landfall at 140mph or 120 mph...its going to be bad either way. If you plan on leaving and haven't done so yet, Pleaseeee don't wait till last minute ( Its already almost last minute) Many will do the same and evacuation routes will be packed. Last thing you want is to be caught in bumper to bumper traffic with not much gas to be found along the way. Pull out the gps and find alternate routes...back roads are great, even if you have to go 30 miles out of the way...its faster than sitting in traffic for hours on end.

[AlphaToOmega]

Have you seen what happened with Hurricane Grace when it made its second landfall? Not only is Hurricane Ida stronger than Hurricane Grace, it is forecasted to go over the loop current, and it is forecasted to make landfall in a heavily populated area.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Starting to shrink and become symetrical.

It's getting very close to show time

[Visioen]

It appears that the land interaction yesterday and current proximity to Cuba has limited outflow somewhat for now in the S/SE portion of the circulation. It also looks like some of the rich moisture inflow on the east side is getting blocked by Cuba. Nevertheless a major hurricane at landfall is not out of the question at all, and it will only be moving farther from Cuba and over some of the highest Atlantic OHC. My best amateur guess is 100kt/955mb at landfall between Franklin and Morgan City moving NNW. Praying that dry air and shear can work it’s wonderful magic near landfall, but it looks like it’s going to be too little too late

I don't see how land interaction and proximity to Cuba could affect outflow in that way (very high up in the atmosphere). Shear on the other hand is the probable culprit here imo.

[ElectricStorm]

Whether it makes landfall at 140mph or 120 mph...its going to be bad either way. If you plan on leaving and haven't done so yet, Pleaseeee don't wait till last minute ( Its already almost last minute) Many will do the same and evacuation routes will be packed. Last thing you want is to be caught in bumper to bumper traffic with not much gas to be found along the way. Pull out the gps and find alternate routes...back roads are great, even if you have to go 30 miles out of the way...its faster than sitting in traffic for hours on end.

Looking at those traffic cams someone posted a few pages back, it already looks like a nightmare trying to get out of there. I just hope there's not a traffic jam when the storm gets there.

[Dean4Storms]

Eye definitely warming and about to make an appearance. It's getting close to going boom!

[tolakram]

I think that will change, if not with this upcoming advisory, the next. The NHC forecast had it at 100 mph by 8:00 this morning. It’s definitely now behind schedule. I still believe it RI’s but it simply going to run out of time to get to a 4, in my opinion.

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)


saved loop, big picture
https://i.imgur.com/SxUtFy0.gif

18z is actually 1 pm Central

Woops, thanks to everyone who corrected. So 100 MPH is expected by 1PM central, 2PM eastern by the 4AM central discussion.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It appears that the land interaction yesterday and current proximity to Cuba has limited outflow somewhat for now in the S/SE portion of the circulation. It also looks like some of the rich moisture inflow on the east side is getting blocked by Cuba. Nevertheless a major hurricane at landfall is not out of the question at all, and it will only be moving farther from Cuba and over some of the highest Atlantic OHC. My best amateur guess is 100kt/955mb at landfall between Franklin and Morgan City moving NNW. Praying that dry air and shear can work it’s wonderful magic near landfall, but it looks like it’s going to be too little too late

I don't see how land interaction and proximity to Cuba could affect outflow (very high up in the atmosphere). Shear on the other hand is the probable culprit here imo.

It’s more Cuba and it’s mountains than shear. There is a reason why the downcasting is not going to age well. As it pulls away from Cuba, outflow improves as conditions are extremely favorable.

[Category5Kaiju]

Deep layer shear is roughly 10 knots. That's still considered "favorable" for TCs. If you want to see "unfavorable," then look at TD10. Ouch.

[wx98]

Whether it makes landfall at 140mph or 120 mph...its going to be bad either way. If you plan on leaving and haven't done so yet, Pleaseeee don't wait till last minute ( Its already almost last minute) Many will do the same and evacuation routes will be packed. Last thing you want is to be caught in bumper to bumper traffic with not much gas to be found along the way. Pull out the gps and find alternate routes...back roads are great, even if you have to go 30 miles out of the way...its faster than sitting in traffic for hours on end.

The problem is there are limited routes out of New Orleans. Three west through Kenner, two to the south (Metairie and Gretna), two through New Orleans east, and the Pontchartrain causeway.

[TallyTracker]

I don’t know what you guys are seeing. Ida seems to be on track and steadily organizing and deepening. Winds haven’t caught up since it still seems to be at 85 mph. The rapid deepening isn’t supposed to commence until this afternoon when that high OHC at the Loop Current is tapped. I hope it does stop strengthening, but I think Cat 4 is still 100% on the table. Buckle up cause this is gonna be a long day and night ahead…

[Meteorcane]

For everyone, saying that this thing won't reach the NHC's forecasted intensity because it is behind schedule in terms of winds/pressure... remember TC intensification is not a linear process, even though the NHC typically depicts it like that in their forecasts for simplicity-sake. Just because the intensity is behind schedule now, doesn't mean it can't catch up by "overachieving" tonight.

[MississippiWx]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Deep layer shear is roughly 10 knots. That's still considered "favorable" for TCs.

It’s also not detrimental because Ida is moving in the same direction as the shear.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Where is this coming from? 4AM CDT discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

Am I calculating wrong?

18Z is 2PM Eastern, 3PM central. As of this posting the time is currently 14:26 UTC (Z)


saved loop, big picture
https://i.imgur.com/SxUtFy0.gif

18z is actually 1 pm Central

Woops, thanks to everyone who corrected. So 100 MPH is expected by 1PM central, 2PM eastern by the 4AM central discussion.

Actually 12 hrs from 4am Central would be 4pm Central...it's ok, it is horribly confusing for the best of people. Just think of when NHC puts out their advisories...11am/pm 5am/pm (eastern)