ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[cjrciadt]

I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.

Seems reasonable; am guessing 976-978mb on next fix. I still think we'll see some eye contraction fairly soon. Then we'll see the pressure drop like a house of cards.

Next fix is still 4 hours from now. It’ll be deeper than 976.

Im going with 100kt/960mb for the first pass.

[Kazmit]

Eye is opening up to the sky. Stadium effect incoming.

[cycloneye]

Seems reasonable; am guessing 976-978mb on next fix. I still think we'll see some eye contraction fairly soon. Then we'll see the pressure drop like a house of cards.

Next fix is still 4 hours from now. It’ll be deeper than 976.

Seriously, 4 hours? Yes, deeper indeed

Go to the Ida Recon Thread to see the next two missions that will depart at 4 PM and 4:45 PM EDT

[Kohlecane]

INIT 28/1500Z 24.8N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

In regards to Gatorcanes post of that jump/wobble N, if this continues then the slight E shift in the models might be on to something(sorry on a touch screen laptop it's suppose to be straight

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1431663304494260233



 https://twitter.com/KyleNoel15/status/1431660416430755842



 https://twitter.com/KyleNoel15/status/1431661139885240325

[chaser1]

Next fix is still 4 hours from now. It’ll be deeper than 976.

Seriously, 4 hours? Yes, deeper indeed

Unless I am missing something the next planes don’t depart until 20z and 20:45z.

You could well be right. I just assumed there'd be a plane in there soon.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Clearcloudz]

[Sanibel]

Intensification wobble (here we go folks)...

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431664541922889735

Note that the weakest members are on the eastern envelope of the guidance. Nevertheless, Ida will certainly be a MH at LF, and will likely be intensifying as it does so, given that it is likely to make LF closer to NOLA, implying that VWS would not increase until after LF. At this point I think impacts will be similar to but probably somewhat less severe than Betsy’s (1965), owing to Ida’s smaller size compensating for its nearshore slowdown and intensification, unless Ida were to intensify significantly more than indicated by either models or the NHC. Regardless, this will be a major hurricane at LF. Be ready.

One major concern is that pre-landfall weakening is becoming much less likely, due to Ida’s consistent eastward deviation from the forecast track. Outflow is well established in all quadrants, and a classical “stadium effect” is developing in the eye. Ida’s compact inner core greatly exacerbates the potential for RI or even ERI during the next twelve to twenty-four hours, as it moves over the highest TCHP within the Gulf Loop Current, followed by extremely warm shelf waters near the coast of Louisiana. Therefore, Ida is likely to be a strengthening Category 4 as it makes landfall. Given consistent eastward trends, landfall between Port Fourchon and Montegut, LA, is becoming increasingly plausible. NOLA might just miss the inner core, given Ida’s likely path and relatively small size, but smaller communities will suffer potentially catastrophic effects.

[catskillfire51]

INIT 28/1500Z 24.8N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

In regards to Gatorcanes post of that jump/wobble N, if this continues then the slight E shift in the models might be on to something(sorry on a touch screen laptop it's suppose to be straight
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/4e044cc3-01e7-4a56-b23a-12c3714de89d.jpg

[wxman57]

Generally, it's good to have recon reach the storm before an advisory. Given its appearance, I'm initializing my 3pm advisory at 90 kts. Looks like about 85 kts now. 115 kts to 120 kts at landfall 6pm tomorrow.

[supercane4867]

Eye temp just broke into the positives on ADT

[skyline385]

Look at the length of those spiral bands, such a beautiful system. Almost looks like a WPAC Typhoon.

[Evenstar]

lol did you just link your own tweet?

Did you just try to make fun of him for linking to a multimedia tweet rather than reconstructing it here?

(Edit: Sorry, may be a little punchy, but I'm always unamused by misapplication of the made-up, oft-ignored 'rule' that one must not retweet oneself under any circumstances . . . it's sillier than "the wrong fork", and frequently ignored with good reason.)

Yeah there are several people here that do that, not sure why he’s being called out. I’m not a huge fan of the practice, as it tends to make the statement look more official than it actually is, but it seems to be generally accepted

I know this is off topic, but I have to say I find the links to tweets very helpful. Not only does it show me that Storm2k has some VERY SMART folks (and I can put faces to names), but I get to read the conversations generated by their tweets. Those conversations are a bit like Storm2k for me, in other words, I LEARN from them.

I'd be sorry to see people shamed into no longer sharing their tweets on Storm2k.

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/fDJfSZW.jpg

newest sat pic update sure appears to be pushing east of forecast track in the near term. So much for the thought it might simply reflect some counter-clockwise gyration as the storm pushes northwest. #trackimplications?

[ScottNAtlanta]

We will be needing to observe microwave imagery for concentric eyewalls in about 10-12 hours. Looks like the eye has some mesovorticies

[InfernoFlameCat]

WHAT just happened! I leave to sleep a bit and talk of Cat 2!

[cjrciadt]

Getting my first spiral band from Ida... In Kissimmee FL...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Now that is the best looking system at cat 1 I have seen