ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

I think it's too early to find a well-defined LLC. I do know that in about 99.99999% of cases when a northward moving storm in the Gulf is encountering westerly shear, the center moves inland farther east and faster than what the models are indicating. I would not be surprised at all if the weak center tracks near the mouth of the Mississippi on its way to MS/AL. All significant weather well east of the center.

I need to go take my temperature, I may be sick. I'm sort of in agreement with Aric for the first time ever...

That you may be sick or...?

[Ubuntwo]

Designated 03L on BT

Code: Select all

AL, 03, 2021061718,   , BEST,   0, 225N,  924W,  25, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2021061718, , BEST, 0, 225N, 924W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 150, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, TRANSITIONED, alA22021 to al032021,

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1405606723344236547

[wxman57]

I would definitely argue for a subtropical classification. The activity is well to the east of the center and models look to keep it that way. Most of the weather should be well to the east of the landfall point.

I am confused. I thought for subtropical classification, water temperatures have to be in a certain range? The Gulf is all above 80 degrees F.

There's nothing "subtropical" about this. It's a sheared tropical disturbance. Recon found a weak swirl around where I had the center - 22.7N / 91.8W. It doesn't look like it's well enough defined to call it a depression.

[OuterBanker]

The Euro has been rather consistent with 92l for several days. It’s probability of a tropical storm has been higher off the east coast than the gulf. After exiting from the Outer Banks or DelMarVa. 00z run today has it exiting the OBX Tues 00z with 50 to 60 mph 10 meter winds.

06z Euro now around Hatteras exit and riding just off coast. If 92l is further east I can see an exit around SC of even further south and develop further.

It could surprise a lot of east coast beach tourist early next week.

[Steve]

I think it's too early to find a well-defined LLC. I do know that in about 99.99999% of cases when a northward moving storm in the Gulf is encountering westerly shear, the center moves inland farther east and faster than what the models are indicating. I would not be surprised at all if the weak center tracks near the mouth of the Mississippi on its way to MS/AL. All significant weather well east of the center.

I need to go take my temperature, I may be sick. I'm sort of in agreement with Aric for the first time ever...

Agreed...how many times in the past have we seen these weak highly sheared systems track to the east as the center reforms or gets pulled under the convection. Maybe look for signs of it in the short term mesoscale models as sometimes they seem to have a better handle on these types of environments. Wxman57 agreeing with Aric? Have we entered an alternate universe?

Lots of times. But how many times when you had high pressure pulsing in from the east and east-southeast? Almost never except when you have a descending trough. Aric made a good point about "if there was more time." Depending on the amount of time, it could have followed the trough out NE or missed the connection entirely and moved toward TX or Mexico. As for the short terms, the 18z HRRR has it just about landfall in Terrebonne/Lafourche in 24 hours. All other mesoscales are slower (33-40 hours).

12z NAM 3km is slower and a hair farther west Terrebonne Parirsh). 12Z FV3 is farther west and closer to Morgan City (St. Mary Parish). 12z WRF-ARW is Grand Isle (Jefferson Parish) and 1000mb. It has multiple LA hits and then coastal MS similar to what wxman said could happen. WRF-ARW2 is a little farther west than the WRF-ARW.

Best Track has it at 92.4W. Cocodrie is about 90.6W whereas Point Aux Chene is like 90.3. Laplace (which is west of New Orleans) is about 90.5 but is pretty far off the Gulf. Port Fourchon is 90.2W. Those are the areas the center is likely to come in IMHO. Rain as everyone has been saying should be mostly displaced to the east except if the center tightens at landfall.

[Steve]

The Euro has been rather consistent with 92l for several days. It’s probability of a tropical storm has been higher off the east coast than the gulf. After exiting from the Outer Banks or DelMarVa. 00z run today has it exiting the OBX Tues 00z with 50 to 60 mph 10 meter winds.

06z Euro now around Hatteras exit and riding just off coast. If 92l is further east I can see an exit around SC of even further south and develop further.

It could surprise a lot of east coast beach tourist early next week.

Euro has been a western outlier for the better part of a week on the Gulf side.

[wxman57]

The Euro has been rather consistent with 92l for several days. It’s probability of a tropical storm has been higher off the east coast than the gulf. After exiting from the Outer Banks or DelMarVa. 00z run today has it exiting the OBX Tues 00z with 50 to 60 mph 10 meter winds.

06z Euro now around Hatteras exit and riding just off coast. If 92l is further east I can see an exit around SC of even further south and develop further.

It could surprise a lot of east coast beach tourist early next week.

The Euro strengthens it over the Carolinas and has it near hurricane strength as it moves offshore of the Outer Banks. I'd say that's highly unlikely. Euro has been developing systems inland since it's last "upgrade". There will be some type of low moving offshore, but it may be under high shear and/or merging with a frontal boundary.

[OuterBanker]

The Euro has been rather consistent with 92l for several days. It’s probability of a tropical storm has been higher off the east coast than the gulf. After exiting from the Outer Banks or DelMarVa. 00z run today has it exiting the OBX Tues 00z with 50 to 60 mph 10 meter winds.

06z Euro now around Hatteras exit and riding just off coast. If 92l is further east I can see an exit around SC of even further south and develop further.

It could surprise a lot of east coast beach tourist early next week.

The Euro strengthens it over the Carolinas and has it near hurricane strength as it moves offshore of the Outer Banks. I'd say that's highly unlikely. Euro has been developing systems inland since it's last "upgrade". There will be some type of low moving offshore, but it may be under high shear and/or merging with a frontal boundary.

I too think the Euro has it too strong.

On the other hand weak systems can and have strengthened over land if they receive a good moisture feed ( hurricane Bonnie did just that).

[cycloneye]

Changed the title because of this:

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC)

[MississippiWx]

Afternoon, all.

I’ve been peaking in to check on our disturbance in the Gulf, but haven’t made time to post. After glancing over data, I don’t see this being classified today. There is certainly no clear-cut center. Very broad gyre is located in the Bay of Campeche, very typical of early-mid June systems. The area of convection to the northeast catches my eye, especially when viewing 850mb vort maps. A strengthening 850mb vort max is located here and pinwheeling around the main gyre. I think this is where we need to look for any sort of consolidation into a TC.

Just my un-educated guess.

[Sciencerocks]

I pretty much agree with the post above as this is extremely broad and disorganized currently, but as it moves towards the northern gulf watch for it to tighten up some because of the shape of the coast which will allow for convection to pop near the center. At this point it will become a named system. I am thinking 40-45 knots.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

That's just about 10-15 miles west of my track at landfall. Tracks match perfectly from start to finish. Maybe we're both wrong and it tracks farther east? That's possible.

[USTropics]

Evolution of the low-level vorticity over the past 12 hours:

[MBryant]

I got a call from my Aunt about evacuating from this pathetic storm. The Doom Machine is working just fine. My goodness. How could a state that had been hit hard by real storms survive 4 to 5 inch (100-125 mm) rainfalls?

This area gets those on any given summer afternoon.

[Dean4Storms]

A bit surprised they didn't come to about Ft. Walton Bch or Destin with the TS Warnings. The Euro has 50mph wind gusts along the coast there in the 12z, I know that might be a bit over done but most of the winds and rain squalls will be much further east of the center.

[DestinHurricane]

A bit surprised they didn't come to about Ft. Walton Bch or Destin with the TS Warnings. The Euro has 50mph wind gusts along the coast there in the 12z, I know that might be a bit over done but most of the winds and rain squalls will be much further east of the center.

Yeah that surprised me, I thought they would go to Walton Okaloosa line. I also thought the overall track would be further east though.

[tropicwatch]

A bit surprised they didn't come to about Ft. Walton Bch or Destin with the TS Warnings. The Euro has 50mph wind gusts along the coast there in the 12z, I know that might be a bit over done but most of the winds and rain squalls will be much further east of the center.

Yeah that surprised me, I thought they would go to Walton Okaloosa line. I also thought the overall track would be further east though.

I was thinking more along the lines of a watch for the Panhandle.