ATL: FRED - Models

[ElectricStorm]

0z HMON running. Goes south of PR heading to Hispanola

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF running. Looks like it might clip PR.

EDIT: Nope it misses to the south. Gets to 990mb before heading into DR

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF slightly stronger approaching DR

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF 988mb approaching S FL. Takes a bit to reorganize after DR

[AtlanticWind]

The models are showing this is a tough forecast

[Shell Mound]

The models are showing this is a tough forecast

The 00Z EPS is much weaker and a bit faster than yesterday’s 12Z suite. Many fewer members show short-term (pre-Gulf) development as well.

[AtlanticWind]

The models are showing this is a tough forecast

The 00Z EPS is much weaker and a bit faster than yesterday’s 12Z suite. Many fewer members show short-term (pre-Gulf) development as well.

Regardless if I was in the keys I would be preparing for a possible Cat1

[jlauderdal]

It seems to be a weakness in the ridge around the keys the models are starting to hint at.

Yes, err on the side of a stronger ridge rather than weaker in these situations, the modeling typically underplays the strength of the ridges even after recon does its thing.

[Blown Away]

06z ICON... Slight NE shift and keeps PTC6 a TD/TS into Keys/FL Peninsula in 5 days...

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF 66 hours... Landfall PR, skims N coast Hispaniola... At 66 hours @.5 N of 00z and 7 mb's lower... Making the approach towards SFL, may be the strongest run so far??

[NDG]

The reason why the global models have and most likely continue to trend stronger with future Fred is because not only they have been trending it will track just offshore of the northern Cuban coast it will encounter a much less hostile environment in the eastern GOM, the TUTT/ULL that models were originally showing is now no were to be found this weekend near FL.

[Shell Mound]

The reason why the global models have and most likely continue to trend stronger with future Fred is because not only they have been trending it will track just offshore of the northern Cuban coast it will encounter a much less hostile environment in the eastern GOM, the TUTT/ULL that models were originally showing is now no were to be found this weekend near FL.

https://i.imgur.com/2hY2nVM.png

What about the shear in the Bahamas pre-Florida? Wouldn’t the TUTT still prevent “future Fred” from intensifying prior to reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico?

[NDG]

06z HWRF's run will probably end much stronger than previous runs.

[SFLcane]

Oh hwrf why do you tease us like this lol down to 984mb already could be a major before FL this run.

[Frank P]

06z GFS shows a weak system near the Destin area on Monday, shift west noted.

[Shell Mound]

06z HWRF's run will probably end much stronger than previous runs.

Westerly shear associated with the ULL still seems quite strong in the Bahamas as of day three (72h). I wouldn’t expect much deepening prior to the eastern GoM.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The 06z HWRF is ridiculous. No way that intensity is going to pan out.

[NDG]

The reason why the global models have and most likely continue to trend stronger with future Fred is because not only they have been trending it will track just offshore of the northern Cuban coast it will encounter a much less hostile environment in the eastern GOM, the TUTT/ULL that models were originally showing is now no were to be found this weekend near FL.

https://i.imgur.com/2hY2nVM.png

What about the shear in the Bahamas pre-Florida? Wouldn’t the TUTT still prevent “future Fred” from intensifying prior to reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico?

It will not have the best UL conditions like it will have in the SE GOM but it will not be as hostile as earlier thought.
The models keep trending west away with the TUTT like feature ahead of Future Fred.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... 84 hrs NE shift.. May make a run at Major?

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF 90 Hours... 88 mph and has SFL in site... A little slower and north of previous runs... Missing/skimming Hispaniola allowed the HWRF to explode...