ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[skyline385]

HWRF 18Z following the same trend as HMON too...

[wxman57]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

[skyline385]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

Deleted

[captainbarbossa19]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

Do you think the system is consolidating now? If so, where would you place it?

[grapealcoholic]

Things are taking off near the core now. We might have a formidable TS when the sun comes up

[PTrackerLA]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

Starting to wonder if it might come in on a Gustav like trajectory especially if it crossed western Cuba. Expecting at least some impacts for Lafayette as of now hopefully nothing more intense than we experienced with Laura/Delta.

[BobHarlem]

8pm is still 80/50.

[grapealcoholic]

8pm is still 80/50.

Unbelievably irresponsible

[ConvergenceZone]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

Thanks WXMAN for your post. My bad for thinking that the fast speed would be such an inhibitor. I guess I was thinking of tropical waves in the Atlantic, when it's often commented on that the wave is moving too fast to develop.....But maybe it's because there's more shear in the Atlantic.....

[aspen]

8pm is still 80/50.

Unbelievably irresponsible

I wouldn’t go that far. It looks good now, but it could still just be a sharp wave axis under the hood. We also haven’t gotten any recent ASCAT passes to judge how far this has truly come along.

I will agree that the odds should’ve been raised. 60/90 or 70/90 seems good for now.

[SoupBone]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

Havent you seen you much in this thread wxman, whats your take on this?

Huh? That's literally his take on it.

[tolakram]

8pm is still 80/50.

Unbelievably irresponsible

That's a little over the top.

[skyline385]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

Havent you seen you much in this thread wxman, whats your take on this?

Huh? That's literally his take on it.

Yea i realized that later, thought he just replying to the original comment lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

This is going to be a really bad one. If you live on the northern Gulf coast, please prepare now

[Nimbus]

Low level center is about 14.9n 75.1 W and there is some sheared popcorn circling but the NHC must be thinking that it will be moving into shear from that ULL short term.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1430682183174397955

[underthwx]

Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready.

I wondered about the system possibly developing further northward after looking at it on satellite, and to be honest I don't pay much attention to early models, sorry bout that...but I do pay attention to you wxman57....let's hope for the best....

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1430679068798771204

[psyclone]

A fast moving system doesn't need deep OHC content to go bananas. It needs surface flash fuel. The gulf has more of that than anywhere else in the Atlantic basin. plenty of upper 80's to near 90 sea temps. the nearshore temps around the tampa bay area are aboot 90. That's not unique to here either. It's heavenly for swimming...but freakishly dangerous fuel for a heat engine like a hurricane...If the upper environment is favorable, rapid deepening to landfall is very possible and we all know how much worse a system is when it is intensifying as it comes in. So much worse and we have seen plenty of examples in recent years, especially on the gulf coast..

[GCANE]

Last GFS run I saw had a large UL High forming in the GOM when this is going to be in the middle of the GOM.
Not going in the right direction to keep a lid on this.
Right now, showing marginal CAPE in the east GOM, which would be a good thing.
Let's see what 00Z GFS shows tomorrow.