ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

I could see Larry ending up similar to how Jose(2017) did. Close but still OTS and with big ACE points.

Can you point me to some resources that explain what ACE is?

ACE is the sum of the squared wind speed in knots, where the wind speed is taken every six hours. And then it's divided by 10,000 so ACE = 10^-4 * SUM(v^2). Thus the unit of ACE is m^2/s^2 or in other words J/kg*(1/10,000). Not that this unit is ever placed behind the ACE value, but it's just to give you an indication that ACE represents the total energy of the tropical system. Do note that its precise numerical value is not actually equal to the actual energy of the system or something, but it's at least proportional to the kinetic energy of the storm. I think the wikipedia page also gives a pretty good overview.

[Audeclis]

I could see Larry ending up similar to how Jose(2017) did. Close but still OTS and with big ACE points.

Can you point me to some resources that explain what ACE is?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulat ... one_energy

[Hammy]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5426/cFbLCs.gif

Mesovortices are already visible through the clouds.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433153949159284736

[ThetaE]

Just tuned in today. The appearance of an early eye is definitely... eye-catching (sorry). To me this means that Larry has a fairly large, incredibly well-defined structure. Developing an eye usually requires strong subsidence driven by deep, continuous eyewall convection. That sort of convection isn't happening yet, but I could see how a lack of clouds over the center could develop if a) the underlying banding was really well-defined, and b) the general size of the storm is quite large.

To me, this is a potent sign about Larry's future. I think (rapid) intensification is all about a TC's efficiency: how well convection, inflow, outflow, etc. are arranged in order to quickly derive heat energy from the sea surface and convert it to kinetic energy (winds), so I'm always keeping an eye for healthy storm structure. The only thing structurally lacking about Larry is symmetry in the inner core (convection looks weak on the west side).

I think the NHC's intensity of 55 kt is correct. Convection doesn't look to be wrapping around the eye that vigorously yet, but it's probably not long until Larry reaches hurricane strength.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433153949159284736

It is still too early, but there is the possibility that Larry threatens land. It is dangerous, in my opinion, to assume a storm will definitely recurve. People in hurricane-prone areas should at least be planning something in my opinion.

[Bizzles]

Does the development (or lack there of) of 91L have any impact on Larry's potential path?

[Hurricaneman]

Does the development (or lack there of) of 91L have any impact on Larry's potential path?

Nope, way too far apart

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

Larry is looking very impressive! This looks to be one of those hurricanes with a sizeable envelope. Over the years I seen some of these well developed "large bowling balls" in the deep tropics blowing westward at a good clip, and they're often prone to staying in their lane and continuing westward. That's not to say that they're immune from feeling the poleward tug from the flow ahead of an approach trough, but these large beasts are often a little bit different. Large hurricanes have a greater capacity to affect the environment around them.

Right now, one can see on satellite how the low to mid level ridge to its north is really pushing a large stratocum (or poss. altocumulus?) deck westward well ahead of the storm. Now, I can see how models want to curve Larry up and around the western edge of a degraded 500 mb ridge in about 3 days but I found it interesting how the orientation of the lower level 700mb ridge appeared further south and west at the same 72 hr. point. Larry is clearly deepening - fast, and one would presume certainly more apt to track with the deeper mid level steering. I just wonder if it's large envelope and massive anticyclone might contribute to fatten up and expand the ridge already in place resulting in a continued quick westward track along 12N to eventually threaten the Lesser Antilles. In the near term, I think we'll see models shifting further west.

[Category5Kaiju]

Larry is looking very impressive! This looks to be one of those hurricanes with a sizeable envelope. Over the years I seen some of these well developed "large bowling balls" in the deep tropics blowing westward at a good clip, and they're often prone to staying in their lane and continuing westward. That's not to say that they're immune from feeling the poleward tug from the flow ahead of an approach trough, but these large beasts are often a little bit different. Large hurricanes have a greater capacity to affect the environment around them.

Right now, one can see on satellite how the low to mid level ridge to its north is really pushing a large stratocum (or poss. altocumulus?) deck westward well ahead of the storm. Now, I can see how models want to curve Larry up and around the western edge of a degraded 500 mb ridge in about 3 days but I found it interesting how the orientation of the lower level 700mb ridge appeared further south and west at the same 72 hr. point. Larry is clearly deepening - fast, and one would presume certainly more apt to track with the deeper mid level steering. I just wonder if it's large envelope and massive anticyclone might contribute to fatten up and expand the ridge already in place resulting in a continued quick westward track along 12N to eventually threaten the Lesser Antilles. In the near term, I think we'll see models shifting further west.

Well said. This is why I find the tropics so fascinating; earlier it seemed like Larry would be a fish storm, no big deal to land at any point whatsoever, and we could enjoy its Cat 4 beauty in the open ocean. However, with some of the trends I am seeing, things have really started to get...interesting. While an OTS solution imho is the most likely, I am starting to sense that we may need to monitor this system more closely as it looks like a complete fish storm may not be the only outcome worth noting.

[Nimbus]

Larry is looking very impressive! This looks to be one of those hurricanes with a sizeable envelope. Over the years I seen some of these well developed "large bowling balls" in the deep tropics blowing westward at a good clip, and they're often prone to staying in their lane and continuing westward. That's not to say that they're immune from feeling the poleward tug from the flow ahead of an approach trough, but these large beasts are often a little bit different. Large hurricanes have a greater capacity to affect the environment around them.

Right now, one can see on satellite how the low to mid level ridge to its north is really pushing a large stratocum (or poss. altocumulus?) deck westward well ahead of the storm. Now, I can see how models want to curve Larry up and around the western edge of a degraded 500 mb ridge in about 3 days but I found it interesting how the orientation of the lower level 700mb ridge appeared further south and west at the same 72 hr. point. Larry is clearly deepening - fast, and one would presume certainly more apt to track with the deeper mid level steering. I just wonder if it's large envelope and massive anticyclone might contribute to fatten up and expand the ridge already in place resulting in a continued quick westward track along 12N to eventually threaten the Lesser Antilles. In the near term, I think we'll see models shifting further west.

The models aren't usually that far off but I was wondering about the Carolinas yesterday if high pressure built back in after the projected trough/weakness/bridge too far.

[grapealcoholic]

ADT still hasn't picked up on the eye

[Kohlecane]

Larry is looking very impressive! This looks to be one of those hurricanes with a sizeable envelope. Over the years I seen some of these well developed "large bowling balls" in the deep tropics blowing westward at a good clip, and they're often prone to staying in their lane and continuing westward. That's not to say that they're immune from feeling the poleward tug from the flow ahead of an approach trough, but these large beasts are often a little bit different. Large hurricanes have a greater capacity to affect the environment around them.

Right now, one can see on satellite how the low to mid level ridge to its north is really pushing a large stratocum (or poss. altocumulus?) deck westward well ahead of the storm. Now, I can see how models want to curve Larry up and around the western edge of a degraded 500 mb ridge in about 3 days but I found it interesting how the orientation of the lower level 700mb ridge appeared further south and west at the same 72 hr. point. Larry is clearly deepening - fast, and one would presume certainly more apt to track with the deeper mid level steering. I just wonder if it's large envelope and massive anticyclone might contribute to fatten up and expand the ridge already in place resulting in a continued quick westward track along 12N to eventually threaten the Lesser Antilles. In the near term, I think we'll see models shifting further west.

The models aren't usually that far off but I was wondering about the Carolinas yesterday if high pressure built back in after the projected trough/weakness/bridge too far.

Yeah Keeping close watch on this one! Don't have to be in till 0730, starting to show up at 0530 watching models and satellite
imagery has commenced

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433153949159284736

Has Larry moved 0.2 degrees S??

[Stormybajan]

This has been the euro's storm from the start! Larry has wasted no time into rushing from a tropical wave two days ago to now 70 mph and nearly a hurricane . Screams MDR long tracker with mega ACE!

[Teban54]

This has been the euro's storm from the start! Larry has wasted no time into rushing from a tropical wave two days ago to now 70 mph and nearly a hurricane . Screams MDR long tracker with mega ACE!

And the scary thing is that Euro has been the western outlier all along.

[Nimbus]

ADT still hasn't picked up on the eye

Models are way behind but the upper level low about -50w is still there.
A cat 5 hurricane might have enough outflow to fill that leaving the "western edge of the ridging back with the trough over Florida. Models should be better than us meat popsicles though.

[AutoPenalti]

ADT still hasn't picked up on the eye

Models are way behind but the upper level low about -50w is still there.
A cat 5 hurricane might have enough outflow to fill that leaving the "western edge of the ridging back with the trough over Florida. Models should be better than us meat popsicles though.

I don't even think it needs to be a Cat 5, the envelope it has is massive..

[cycloneye]