WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#221 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:56 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:A Recon is headed for Chanthu :eek: - http://tropicalwestpacific.com/recon/re ... page=sonde

OHHHH finally we will get some valuable data :double:
With the threat of possible typhoon landfall in Taiwan, I guess it make sense but when was the last time they did this? I don't recall they did this with Meranti.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#222 Postby StormTracker89 » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:14 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
Hurricane2021 wrote:A Recon is headed for Chanthu :eek: - http://tropicalwestpacific.com/recon/re ... page=sonde

OHHHH finally we will get some valuable data :double:
With the threat of possible typhoon landfall in Taiwan, I guess it make sense but when was the last time they did this? I don't recall they did this with Meranti.


DOTSTAR will fly the periphery of the storm, not penetrate the eye.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#223 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:16 pm

StormTracker89 wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
Hurricane2021 wrote:A Recon is headed for Chanthu :eek: - http://tropicalwestpacific.com/recon/re ... page=sonde

OHHHH finally we will get some valuable data :double:
With the threat of possible typhoon landfall in Taiwan, I guess it make sense but when was the last time they did this? I don't recall they did this with Meranti.


DOTSTAR will fly the periphery of the storm, not penetrate the eye.

:(
Well it's alright, data is data.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#224 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:17 pm

StormTracker89 wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
Hurricane2021 wrote:A Recon is headed for Chanthu :eek: - http://tropicalwestpacific.com/recon/re ... page=sonde

OHHHH finally we will get some valuable data :double:
With the threat of possible typhoon landfall in Taiwan, I guess it make sense but when was the last time they did this? I don't recall they did this with Meranti.


DOTSTAR will fly the periphery of the storm, not penetrate the eye.

Of course it was too good to be true. What’s the point of low-level recon if it’s not even gonna do a single center fix?
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#225 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:18 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:A Recon is headed for Chanthu :eek: - http://tropicalwestpacific.com/recon/re ... page=sonde


This is clickbait essentially if you do not mention it’s an upper level recon. Taiwan does missions like this from time to time.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#226 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:18 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 100008

A. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 17.13N

D. 124.06E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1952Z 16.72N 124.65E SSMS


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#227 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:21 pm

If this passes over Batanes then we may get direct readings like Meranti.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#228 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:29 pm

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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#229 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:35 pm

Hayabusa wrote:If this passes over Batanes then we may get direct readings like Meranti.


The Synoptic station in Batanes is working but it looks like the DOST-ASTI AWS are down.

Image
Image

Side by side comparison of data from DOST-ASTI AWS and SYNOP during Meranti (spreadsheet file)
Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#230 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:38 pm

Looking pretty nasty
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#231 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:40 pm

Euro 18Z tracks over Uyugan-Ivana-Mahatao then Itbayat, Meranti tracked over Itbayat too
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#232 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:48 pm

I’m expecting to wake up tomorrow morning to either a landfall in Luzon, or a T#7.5-worthy Super Typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#233 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:49 pm

Oh heck nah

19W CHANTHU 210910 0000 17.1N 124.1E WPAC 130 932
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#234 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:55 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Oh heck nah

19W CHANTHU 210910 0000 17.1N 124.1E WPAC 130 932

Actually I take this back eye has filled back in so 130kts is probably good for now
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#235 Postby TorSkk » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:15 pm

Eye now clearing out nicely with a round ring of CMG
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#236 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:22 pm

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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#237 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:24 pm

Too far from Daet radar already.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#238 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:26 pm

What's with that one ensemble that still wants to make landfall? I really can't see it happening now, unless like it pumps the ridge.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#239 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 09, 2021 9:00 pm

Both raw Ts and Adj Ts on ADT up to 7.0 now. With the larger eye, ADT should handle it much better than it did with the pinhole. Chanthu should be a Cat 5 again by 6z
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#240 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 09, 2021 9:11 pm

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