ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

I'm a little surprised the GFS and HWRF maybe just now realized there was a cold front to deal with north of Cuba? I think that's where the poor upper air conditions will be coming from.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Please correct me if I'm wrong here, but in this case will the cold front be like the one that brought Hermine (2016) to Florida with the shear going the same direction as the hurricane's outflow? That helped Hermine strengthen up to landfall. I can't remember what that type of shear was called.

[gatorcane]

I'm a little surprised the GFS and HWRF maybe just now realized there was a cold front to deal with north of Cuba? I think that's where the poor upper air conditions will be coming from.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The 12Z HWRF has Elsa a bit north of the latest NHC track where she stays mostly inland over Cuba until she emerges into the Straits of Florida. If the 18Z HWRF is more south, might see it with a more significant storm. Conditions across the Gulf look somewhat favorable for development by the time Elsa gets there.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think she is going to become/ stay an asymmetric system. She has to squeeze through those Islands. Remarkably, she has kept nearly the same low level structure since yesterday. She still has her feeder band.

[BYG Jacob]

Does anybody have a link to decent radar?

[blp]

Latest forecast track, 3 day. Forecasted to avoid a direct hit over the Sierra Mountains of eastern Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/NuwlKix.png

Imagine the HWRF with that little land interaction. Will be interesting to see the next runs tonight.

[Sanibel]

How many times have we seen underperforming cyclones suddenly improve when they turn north?...

[InfernoFlameCat]

LLC is about to become exposed again as soon as the cirrus clear. There appears to be no convection there anymore. Elsa stop turning of the convection.

[Nimbus]

I'm a little surprised the GFS and HWRF maybe just now realized there was a cold front to deal with north of Cuba? I think that's where the poor upper air conditions will be coming from.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Please correct me if I'm wrong here, but in this case will the cold front be like the one that brought Hermine (2016) to Florida with the shear going the same direction as the hurricane's outflow? That helped Hermine strengthen up to landfall. I can't remember what that type of shear was called.

Looks like a low in the western gulf with a high pressure dome forming.
Not sure where the western periphery of high pressure will be, depends somewhat on the strength of Elsa.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m going to college this fall for meteorology, specifically tropical weather. Hopefully after that I will have a better understanding when a storm will RI. Right now I think every storm is going to RI lol

After what I saw with storms such as Harvey, Michael, Sally, Laura, and Delta, tbh RI does not surprise me anymore. I think this is a very hard phenomenon to predict, but one of the telltale signs of it about to occur is a bunch of lightning strikes in the core that occur rapidly. Now I am of course not saying that I anticipate Elsa to RI, but after the years that I have tracked storms, nothing will surprise me honestly. We will continue to see how Elsa does of course before jumping to conclusions.

[cane5]

Better and better for se South Fla although if you go by the cone we will be on the dirty side. We need to wait until Sunday to see if the ridges and troughs change.

[NDG]

Latest zoomed in visible satellite loop, saved.

[GCANE]

Damn nice rotating tower followed up by a stronger one in its wake.
Another cylinder just fired.
Poured me a rye and lit up a oscuro. Time to get serious.

[DestinHurricane]

Damn nice rotating tower followed up by a stronger one in its wake.
Another cylinder just fired.
Poured me a rye and lit up a oscuro. Time to get serious.

https://i.imgur.com/X8cEJkl.gif

and this is at nearly dmin. After sunset should be really blowing up.

[Michele B]

OK. Hubs and I having a major disagreement. He claims the “weather man up in Tallahassee” is saying that it broke up because it went over the mountains of Dominican republic. Doesn’t look like that to me, but we’re kind of arguing about it. Anybody got any insights?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yeah but the llc is about to be exposed
no bueno

[ElectricStorm]

OK. Hubs and I having a major disagreement. He claims the “weather man up in Tallahassee” is saying that it broke up because it went over the mountains of Dominican republic. Doesn’t look like that to me, but we’re kind of arguing about it. Anybody got any insights?

It's not breaking up and it definitely didn't go over DR...

[InfernoFlameCat]

OK. Hubs and I having a major disagreement. He claims the “weather man up in Tallahassee” is saying that it broke up because it went over the mountains of Dominican republic. Doesn’t look like that to me, but we’re kind of arguing about it. Anybody got any insights?

they are wrong. It has not gone over the DR

[GCANE]

Damn nice rotating tower followed up by a stronger one in its wake.
Another cylinder just fired.
Poured me a rye and lit up a oscuro. Time to get serious.

https://i.imgur.com/X8cEJkl.gif

and this is at nearly dmin. After sunset should be really blowing up.

Right on. Tracking into hotter water too.

[Michele B]

OK. Hubs and I having a major disagreement. He claims the “weather man up in Tallahassee” is saying that it broke up because it went over the mountains of Dominican republic. Doesn’t look like that to me, but we’re kind of arguing about it. Anybody got any insights?

It's not breaking up and it definitely didn't go over DR...

He’s literally reading it to me from their website!

And we wonder WHY people get confused.

I wonder how many people will “let down their guard” based on this clown’s prognostications.

Somebody at his station should get after him.

[psyclone]

Eta yielded a spicy buffet of non desirable impacts here for a low end storm, including a good bit of water rise. I don't expect Elsa to be a significant storm here...but even if it isn't, we could still get decent water rise topped by wave action that could cause overwash, erosion and road closures. and of course..if the center tracks to our west, everyone to the east is fair game for some svrwx/tornado action.