ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This storms IR presentation is a mess.

https://i.imgur.com/cMPwLJC.jpg

Remember how ragged Isiasis was when recon found hurricane winds?

Typical of a system that is being choked by the mountains....add the self induced wind shear and look what we have.

I do think the ingredients are there for strengthening tonight...I am seeing tale tell signs of improvement though it could just be my confirmation bias.

I recall Isaias being something of a mess for most of its life too, outside its landfall along the East Coast.

[catskillfire51]

[skyline385]

Looks like HWRF seems to see some re-intensification to a 90 kts Cat 2 again so there is still a chance although the path is still taking it through Cuba

[eastcoastFL]

This storms IR presentation is a mess.

https://i.imgur.com/cMPwLJC.jpg

Remember how ragged Isiasis was when recon found hurricane winds?

Typical of a system that is being choked by the mountains....add the self induced wind shear and look what we have.

I do think the ingredients are there for strengthening tonight...I am seeing tale tell signs of improvement though it could just be my confirmation bias.

I recall Isaias being something of a mess for most of its life too, outside its landfall along the East Coast.

Isaias was a total mess until it got north of central FL and then really ramped up heading towards the Carolinas. Local tv ans Mets were ready to go into full storm coverage here but nothing ever happened.

[N2FSU]

18z HWRF just got interesting. 978mb before Cuba, a 12mb drop from 12z.

[skyline385]

Remember how ragged Isiasis was when recon found hurricane winds?

Typical of a system that is being choked by the mountains....add the self induced wind shear and look what we have.

I do think the ingredients are there for strengthening tonight...I am seeing tale tell signs of improvement though it could just be my confirmation bias.

I recall Isaias being something of a mess for most of its life too, outside its landfall along the East Coast.

Isaias was a total mess until it got north of central FL and then really ramped up heading towards the Carolinas. Local tv ans Mets were ready to go into full storm coverage here but nothing ever happened.

Isais just never got over the two centers fighting each other until it was away from Florida

[eastcoastFL]

Lots of lightning and convection coming from the blob now on IR along with some pink cloud tops

[typhoonty]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

I agree with Levi. I think the forward speed is what ended up killing Elsa... I don't think after emerging off the coast of Cuba the remnants will have enough time to ramp up to a hurricane. The only time that would be possible is if the conditions in the Gulf were amazing, which they aren't....

Um, ELSA IS NOT DEAD. It's at the very least a moderate tropical storm, the official forecast from the NHC doesn't show dissipation into a remnant low. Elsa has literally already unexpectedly strengthened once despite every expectation and caused hurricane conditions to a country. The chances are low for a repeat intensification phase but I definitely won't be sounding an all clear until I see it on the other side of Cuba.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/JustinWx/status/1411461155822915586

[aspen]

I think Elsa might still be south of the NHC forecast track and what the 18z HWRF model is showing, and we’ll soon have recon to figure out if that’s the case.

I highly doubt this gets near the 90 kt winds of the 18z HWRF, but it seems that maybe this run curves it north too quickly.

[StPeteMike]

18z HWRF just got interesting. 978mb before Cuba, a 12mb drop from 12z.

I wouldn’t argue against that. Elsa has the opportunity to explode before Cuba. Don’t think we will see the same RI after exiting the country, but it could either stay as a Cat 1 or slightly strengthen.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF emerges the northern Cuba coast at 1000mb. If that verified it could still have room to reach hurricane strength in the straits or gulf.

[SconnieCane]

I see S2K storm whiplash is in full effect. "It's strengthening! No, it's weakening! No, it's strengthening! Are you blind? It's clearly weakening, the center has outrun the convection again! But look at those hot towers firing!" etc, etc. Got plenty of it with all the storms last year but I wasn't quite expecting it to return already in early July! I've also noticed over the last few years I've been on here, it's usually the same people who are bullish vs. bearish on a storm's current structure and future prospects for intensification. This isn't meant as an attack on anyone, just an amusing observation.

[BYG Jacob]

That massive tower is either on top of or just to the east of the LLC

[ElectricStorm]

While I do think Elsa will strengthen, I think the HWRF is taking it too far. I personally have a Cat 1 coming into Cuba, but we'll see what happens. Wide range of possibilities.

[Category5Kaiju]

I see S2K storm whiplash is in full effect. "It's strengthening! No, it's weakening! No, it's strengthening! Are you blind? It's clearly weakening, the center has outrun the convection again! But look at those hot towers firing!" etc, etc. Got plenty of it with all the storms last year but I wasn't quite expecting it to return already in early July! I've also noticed over the last few years I've been on here, it's usually the same people who are bullish vs. bearish on a storm's current structure and future prospects for intensification. This isn't meant as an attack on anyone, just an amusing observation.

Yeah, honestly it really is. Team Bullish and Team Bearish almost, especially when it is not that clear regarding a particular storm's future. I totally see what you are saying, ngl this is part of what makes tracking hurricanes actually fun. For Elsa at least, we'll wait and watch.

[Cat5James]

I recall Isaias being something of a mess for most of its life too, outside its landfall along the East Coast.

Isaias was a total mess until it got north of central FL and then really ramped up heading towards the Carolinas. Local tv ans Mets were ready to go into full storm coverage here but nothing ever happened.

Isais just never got over the two centers fighting each other until it was away from Florida

Isaias entire west side was dry near South Florida as well… we probably would have felt it if there was any convection

[aspen]

AF recon is already having transmission issues. There hasn’t been an update in over 20 minutes.

[SootyTern]

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

I agree with Levi. I think the forward speed is what ended up killing Elsa... I don't think after emerging off the coast of Cuba the remnants will have enough time to ramp up to a hurricane. The only time that would be possible is if the conditions in the Gulf were amazing, which they aren't....

For me, Levi is the top singular entity outside of the NHC itself. He just oozes with professionalism without the slightest notion of personal bias when analyzing, Incredibly talented dude.

I have always appreciated how Levi lays out all the possibilities and what specific crossroads or goalposts to look for if solution a is going to happen vs solution b, c, etc. He talks about complex meteorology in a way laypeople can understand. So good to see him advance in his professional career!

[skyline385]

Isaias was a total mess until it got north of central FL and then really ramped up heading towards the Carolinas. Local tv ans Mets were ready to go into full storm coverage here but nothing ever happened.

Isais just never got over the two centers fighting each other until it was away from Florida

Isaias entire west side was dry near South Florida as well… we probably would have felt it if there was any convection

Yep, went to the beach when it was passing and there was barely any rain just some wind...