ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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edu2703
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2301 Postby edu2703 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:27 pm

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1431697034843762691


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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2302 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:27 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Zeta wasn't major when it was over NOLA.
essentially it was. 100 knots is cat 3 right?

Zeta made landfall in an uninhabited marsh. The city of New Orleans itself received low-end category 1 winds.


Zeta was also moving almost 30mph at landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2303 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:28 pm

Seeing some lightning in the eyewall again, probably getting stronger

Image
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2304 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:29 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
MBryant wrote:I was just looking at past hurricanes similar in intensity and approach to the forecast for IDA. Betsy 1965 looks awfully close.


Closest analog at this point.

Yes Betsy seems like a good analogy, we are gonna ride her out unless she bombs out. Relative nearby in a well built house above flood elevation if we need to leave Sunday.
Surprised we are seeing more post from Aric and GCANE. I know Wxman 57 is really busy.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2305 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:29 pm

Deep Layer Shear:
Image

Mid Level Shear:
Image

Humidity:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

I just cannot find a reason why Ida would not be able to reach whatever potential it has, based on these three factors being favorable, it looks like a system that can really take advantage of the Loop Current otherwise. Unless there's something else I am missing.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2306 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:29 pm

Lightning visible

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2307 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:32 pm

tailgater wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
MBryant wrote:I was just looking at past hurricanes similar in intensity and approach to the forecast for IDA. Betsy 1965 looks awfully close.


Closest analog at this point.

Yes Betsy seems like a good analogy, we are gonna ride her out unless she bombs out. Relative nearby in a well built house above flood elevation if we need to leave Sunday.
Surprised we are seeing more post from Aric and GCANE. I know Wxman 57 is really busy.


It is bombing out right now, as we speak. Be prepared for a high end cat 4 landfall.

I don't know where GCANE is. Aric is a chaser and he mostly just talks on one of the tropics Discords now.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2308 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:34 pm

Best track up to 90 knots (105 mph)
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2309 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:35 pm

CDO looks vastly improved. Still a bit warm, but the core structure of Ida is rapidly improving.
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ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2310 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:36 pm

Deluge from an outer band here...

Thunder...Not much wind...

The FIST...

Power flickers...
Last edited by Sanibel on Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2311 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:39 pm

:eek:

Looks like a major hurricane to me:

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2312 Postby MBryant » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:40 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Zeta wasn't major when it was over NOLA.
essentially it was. 100 knots is cat 3 right?

Zeta made landfall in an uninhabited marsh. The city of New Orleans itself received low-end category 1 winds.


I kept hearing that and believed it. But Zeta diminished from 90 to 85 knots and Bestsy diminished from 115 to 95 to 65 after going onshore. The lowlands may not hinder circulation as long as the eye is over water, but it appears it will diminish once the eye is on land, even low land.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2313 Postby PavelGaborik » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:41 pm

Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2314 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:43 pm

gatorcane wrote::eek:

Looks like a major hurricane to me:

https://i.postimg.cc/QCc2CYjY/goes16-vis-swir-gom.gif


Also looks east of the track, watch out NOLA
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2315 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:44 pm

PavelGaborik wrote:Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.


Ida is going past a cooler pool of water and has yet to reach the loop current, thus the warmer cloud tops.
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ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2316 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:44 pm

We haven't seen this play out from a pass over the Loop Current yet...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2317 Postby AlabamaDave » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:44 pm

gatorcane wrote::eek:

Looks like a major hurricane to me:

https://i.postimg.cc/QCc2CYjY/goes16-vis-swir-gom.gif


I don't like the trajectory of the eye right now... I'm increasingly worried that this storm will get closer to New Orleans than anticipated.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2318 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:46 pm

Sanibel wrote:Deluge from an outer band here...

Thunder...Not much wind...


We got a heavy rain band in Key West around 2am this morning just in time for my drive home, gusts over 40mph(officially at the airport) though likely a bit higher in isolated spots with microbursts that seemed to be occuring, lightning and very heavy rain. I'm very glad Ida was not any closer.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2319 Postby karenfromheaven » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:46 pm

Sanibel wrote:Deluge from an outer band here...

Thunder...Not much wind...

The FIST...

Power flickers...


Just inland from you, got slammed with it earlier. Burst of heavy rain and lightning.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2320 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:47 pm

Am looking at the IR and not sure whether mid level dry air or simply UL shear but something is pressing up and against it's south quad. Looks to me more then light southerly shear given the moisture delineation feeding in from the southwest. Given Ida's forward motion, it may be a mute point so long as it's not drier air being entrained into the circulation
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