ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

appears to be vertically stacked now or very close

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the center got tugged a tad north into that tower which makes sense from the motion of the towers.

we have an eyewall forming again. SW to NE. very clear.

https://i.ibb.co/NFwmcQ3/1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/D7z58yz/Capture.png

That's a MLC I think and it’s not stacked.

https://i.postimg.cc/7YfsXxyk/896244-FF-B6-AE-4690-B5-BF-B0-BBDB5-A4-D7-C.jpg

obviously we are looking higher up at this range.. but you don't get structure like this that sustains if it is not stacked enough . it also correlates to the center before it was covered. just got tugged a little.

[ElectricStorm]

LLC looks like it's under that big blob now. Also, new towers firing well SW of center.

[AveryTheComrade]

Overshooting tops over the MLC, seems to be making a run for hurricane yet again.

[BYG Jacob]

Eyewall being built on IR

[eastcoastFL]

Eyewall being built on IR

Should be an interesting night. I'm curious how the track continues to play out. Where it crosses cuba and what its structure is like at that time will be a big determination on what Florida can expect.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the center got tugged a tad north into that tower which makes sense from the motion of the towers.

we have an eyewall forming again. SW to NE. very clear.

https://i.ibb.co/NFwmcQ3/1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/D7z58yz/Capture.png

That's a MLC I think and it’s not stacked.

https://i.postimg.cc/7YfsXxyk/896244-FF-B6-AE-4690-B5-BF-B0-BBDB5-A4-D7-C.jpg

obviously we are looking higher up at this range.. but you don't get structure like this that sustains if it is not stacked enough . it also correlates to the center before it was covered. just got tugged a little.

Not even close to being stacked. Looks a strong tropical wave at this point.

[Steve]

I see S2K storm whiplash is in full effect. "It's strengthening! No, it's weakening! No, it's strengthening! Are you blind? It's clearly weakening, the center has outrun the convection again! But look at those hot towers firing!" etc, etc. Got plenty of it with all the storms last year but I wasn't quite expecting it to return already in early July! I've also noticed over the last few years I've been on here, it's usually the same people who are bullish vs. bearish on a storm's current structure and future prospects for intensification. This isn't meant as an attack on anyone, just an amusing observation.

Yeah, honestly it really is. Team Bullish and Team Bearish almost, especially when it is not that clear regarding a particular storm's future. I totally see what you are saying, ngl this is part of what makes tracking hurricanes actually fun. For Elsa at least, we'll wait and watch.

It used to be way worse with downcasters, state casters and others trying to validate a seasonal prediction. I don’t mind naysayers or over enthusiasts as long as people offer support for their position with a given storm or pattern. I’d rather read pages and pages of science and nowcast observation from the pros and guys like NGD, Gcane Aric and the like. But we aren’t all doctorate level engineers and physicists.

[Aric Dunn]

That's a MLC I think and it’s not stacked.

https://i.postimg.cc/7YfsXxyk/896244-FF-B6-AE-4690-B5-BF-B0-BBDB5-A4-D7-C.jpg

obviously we are looking higher up at this range.. but you don't get structure like this that sustains if it is not stacked enough . it also correlates to the center before it was covered. just got tugged a little.

Not even close to being stacked. Looks a strong tropical wave at this point.

https://i.postimg.cc/76Phrtxg/66-D45455-A35-E-4-BDD-8-A51-E1189-DC1-EDEF.jpg

You cant tell from that.. sorry.

[tolakram]

Cuban radar closest to Elsa.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Source page: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

[eastcoastFL]

I see S2K storm whiplash is in full effect. "It's strengthening! No, it's weakening! No, it's strengthening! Are you blind? It's clearly weakening, the center has outrun the convection again! But look at those hot towers firing!" etc, etc. Got plenty of it with all the storms last year but I wasn't quite expecting it to return already in early July! I've also noticed over the last few years I've been on here, it's usually the same people who are bullish vs. bearish on a storm's current structure and future prospects for intensification. This isn't meant as an attack on anyone, just an amusing observation.

Yeah, honestly it really is. Team Bullish and Team Bearish almost, especially when it is not that clear regarding a particular storm's future. I totally see what you are saying, ngl this is part of what makes tracking hurricanes actually fun. For Elsa at least, we'll wait and watch.

It used to be way worse with downcasters, state casters and others trying to validate a seasonal prediction. I don’t mind naysayers or over enthusiasts as long as people offer support for their position with a given storm or pattern. I’d rather read pages and pages of science and nowcast observation from the pros and guys like NGD, Gcane Aric and the like. But we aren’t all doctorate level engineers and physicists.

State casting is something ill never understand. Why would you want a hurricane? Its no fun living for weeks without electricity in the hot summer. I prefer to just stick with the reality at the moment.

[ColdMiser123]

How much Elsa takes advantage of the more favorable conditions between now and land interaction with Cuba will depend on how significant the impacts to Florida could be.

Recon will be very helpful in shedding light as to what is currently taking place with Elsa. Tough to say what is taking place currently with just IR alone. The 8 pm update from the NHC indicated they believe modest pressure falls are taking place again, most likely based on surface observations within Haiti.

[StPeteMike]

Eyewall being built on IR

Should be an interesting night. I'm curious how the track continues to play out. Where it crosses cuba and what its structure is like at that time will be a big determination on what Florida can expect.

Tonight and all day tomorrow will be interesting. If it can get itself straightened up tonight, has almost a whole day to explode.

[eastcoastFL]

Cuban radar closest to Elsa.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Source page: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

Thank you for always providing excellent data sources. I think half of my bookmarks for the tropics came from your posts.

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please.

COD IR
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

shortwave
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Elsa is now down to 998 millibars. It will be a hurricane again in no time.

[eastcoastFL]

Eyewall being built on IR

Should be an interesting night. I'm curious how the track continues to play out. Where it crosses cuba and what its structure is like at that time will be a big determination on what Florida can expect.

Tonight and all day tomorrow will be interesting. If it can get itself straightened up tonight, has almost a whole day to explode.

Let's hope nothing crazy happens because nobody will be paying attention to the weather news tomorrow. Good thing is with technology now if it does change at least we will get notifications on our phones.

[aspen]

The NHC’s 8pm intermediate advisory position is, once again, south of forecast and likely to miss both Jamaica and the heel of Cuba if this track continues.

[StPeteMike]

Should be an interesting night. I'm curious how the track continues to play out. Where it crosses cuba and what its structure is like at that time will be a big determination on what Florida can expect.

Tonight and all day tomorrow will be interesting. If it can get itself straightened up tonight, has almost a whole day to explode.

Let's hope nothing crazy happens because nobody will be paying attention to the weather news tomorrow. Good thing is with technology now if it does change at least we will get notifications on our phones.

That and much of Tampa Bay will be busy watching the Stanley Cup Final on Monday…. with us winning

[Jr0d]

Here in Key West we had cirrocumulus clouds to our east....the signs of an approaching tropical storm.