ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[storminabox]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

Then why were many of them advertising RI?

[GCANE]

Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.

GCANE's observations suggest ML dry air is the culprit. Am I correct?

There is a big slot of ML Dry Air to the SW of Ida
Looks like the outflow is having a tough time with it.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/JamWX_/status/1431703204815949829




Here we go, it's coming

[grapealcoholic]

CAPE unfortunately no longer matters, we're past that stage of the storm. Energy is being taken right off the warm surface waters now.

[Highteeld]

Here we go, clearing again. Smaller eye apparent

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.

GCANE's observations suggest ML dry air is the culprit. Am I correct?

There is a big slot of ML Dry Air to the SW of Ida
Looks like the outflow is having a tough time with it.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rw2Kct95/99L1.png [/url]

No, I don't think this is the case. There does appear to be some mid-level flow that's causing a slight restriction to the inflow on the southern side, but if there was dry air, we'd be seeing more in the way of thunderstorm collapsing with outflow boundaries. Satellite does not show this. The likely culprit was Ida traveling over low OHC. Now about to enter the loop current, so the next 6-8 hours we will likely see intensification.

[bluespiderfl]

New Orleans I hope you see what I see.

https://i.imgur.com/JWgEL55.jpg

While this is still a very serious event, its wind field is smaller than either Katrina's or Betsy's, and current cloud tops do not suggest ERI. Even if it passes closer to NOLA, the surge and wind should be more confined than in either 1965 or 2005. As of now I think this will be somewhat less severe than Betsy in NOLA, though areas to the immediately southwest, closer to the coast, may be devastated. The current rate of deepening may be enough to support a high-end Category 3 at LF, but I am becoming a little more skeptical about a Category 4 or stronger. It will be severe, but perhaps not as severe as people think, certainly not over a wide area. But locally it will be bad.

Why wasn’t NOLA evacuated again? I heard because there was not enough time?

Because most of Southern LA especially in that NOLO area and i10 is all bridges.. Mandatory evacuation would even further congest that area and engaged even more people as they could possibly be stuck on the roads/bridges during LF.

[Iceresistance]

We got liftoff!

NOAA2 Mission #10 into IDA
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1431705866663723011

Cantore is spot on. And powerful storms tend to create some of their own steering currents usually more poleward.

[grapealcoholic]

Should find a major with contracted RMW.

[GCANE]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

Then why were many of them advertising RI?

I think they got excited about it going over the Loop Current and the big ARWB it would be in.
A good snap-shot of the ARWB is to look at 200 mb vort.
The models were depicting a solid PV ring and I mentioned this a few times in the past.
Even Levi showed this last night.
Currently, its not looking as good as what the forecasts were showing.

[Shell Mound]

In the end Ida may not deepen or expand enough to justify an evacuation. The somewhat small wind field would not generate widespread surge, the NHC forecasts rapid weakening over land, and the rather anemic convection may not allow FL winds to mix/transfer efficiently down to the surface. I think Ida is likely to be at most a strong Cat 3 at LF, and I may be a little generous. It will be bad locally, but perhaps manageable in NOLA, even with the eastern eyewall making a direct hit. We shall see. Everyone should be prepared for the worst.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

In the end Ida may not deepen or expand enough to justify an evacuation. The somewhat small wind field would not generate widespread surge, the NHC forecasts rapid weakening over land, and the rather anemic convection may not allow FL winds to mix/transfer efficiently down to the surface. I think Ida is likely to be at most a strong Cat 3 at LF, and I may be a little generous. It will be bad locally, but perhaps manageable in NOLA, even with the eastern eyewall making a direct hit. We shall see. Everyone should be prepared for the worst.

Optimistic outcome

Lets hope you are right.

We could also wake up tomorrow to a category 5 storm about to make landfall.

[ElectricStorm]

The relatively warm cloud tops might be due to daytime heating, and the lower OHC. I'm guessing Ida is going to intensify the fastest tonight when it's over the hottest part of the Loop Current. Will likely be a major by tonight. I'm not really seeing any dry air affecting it right now

[PavelGaborik]

In the end Ida may not deepen or expand enough to justify an evacuation. The somewhat small wind field would not generate widespread surge, the NHC forecasts rapid weakening over land, and the rather anemic convection may not allow FL winds to mix/transfer efficiently down to the surface. I think Ida is likely to be at most a strong Cat 3 at LF, and I may be a little generous. It will be bad locally, but perhaps manageable in NOLA, even with the eastern eyewall making a direct hit. We shall see. Everyone should be prepared for the worst.

Optimistic outcome

Lets hope you are right.

We could also wake up tomorrow to a category 5 storm about to make landfall.

I think the cat 5 window is just about closed at this point.

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA2 plane is in the air the long recon wait is nearly over

[bob rulz]

I don't think we can make any conclusions on how strong it will be until it crosses over the deepest part of the Loop Current. I do agree that cat 5 is unlikely at this point, but cat 4 is still very much within the realm of possibility.

[GCANE]

Going to wait to see how the eyewall looks after sunset on IR.
Right now, cloud tops on the eyewall are pretty warm.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In the end Ida may not deepen or expand enough to justify an evacuation. The somewhat small wind field would not generate widespread surge, the NHC forecasts rapid weakening over land, and the rather anemic convection may not allow FL winds to mix/transfer efficiently down to the surface. I think Ida is likely to be at most a strong Cat 3 at LF, and I may be a little generous. It will be bad locally, but perhaps manageable in NOLA, even with the eastern eyewall making a direct hit. We shall see. Everyone should be prepared for the worst.

Warm cloud tops do not translate to inefficient mixing of surface winds.

[Highteeld]

The eye is looking more coherent