ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The first mission will be early Friday morning. See the complete TCPOD at the 97L recon thread where you can see the other missions planned.

[Stormybajan]

It’s surely getting the look and it’s pretty robust in size so far. Just needs to continue consolidating and keep up convection

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/GEOCOLOR/20211811510_GOES16-ABI-taw-GEOCOLOR-900x540.jpg

Eyes on Barbados for sure ! the mere fact this is low and still approaching, we dont want another TS Tomas on our door step

Tomas still amazes me for its size and sheer mass it had...I guess one limiting factor this has vs Tomas is that its moving fairly quickly? So [b]maybe[b] that can be our savior and difference between a 60-65 mph storm and a 75+ mph Hurricane

[tailgater]

925 mb vorticity looks strong and it seems to be stack all the way to 500 MB’s. Classifiable to me right now, just saying

[InfernoFlameCat]

:shoot: ->> 97L

As soon as Elsa gets named, you better change your name to Hans.

[Aric Dunn]

The development of some distinct spiral bands coming together is sure sign we have genisis.

[AxaltaRacing24]

In my opinion, this is TD5 all but in name right now.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/oNoHMHjPAyg[/youtube]

[ElectricStorm]

Honestly this looks just about ready to start advisories. I'm guessing they will at the 4 pm advisory

[Chemmers]

I think this will be a hurricane sooner rather than later

[Sciencerocks]

[SFLcane]

I am expecting advisories to be issued soon. Look at the spiral banding. VERY impressive for late june.

[TallyTracker]

I’d be quite comfortable initiating advisories on this system now. Predicting intensity? Now that is something I’d have trouble doing.

[Aric Dunn]

Fully expect the 2pm TWO to be 90/90 and saying advisories later today or tonight.

[Sciencerocks]

Within my opinion this is a depression. I'd be shocked if the nhc doesn't start advisories at 5pm est.

[Iceresistance]

I am expecting advisories to be issued soon. Look at the spiral banding. VERY impressive for late june.

https://i.postimg.cc/J4BFfdWS/gfs.gif

What does this trend for later on this season? Any Analog years for a potential tropical storm in the MDR in June/Early July?

[AlphaToOmega]

I am expecting advisories to be issued soon. Look at the spiral banding. VERY impressive for late june.

https://i.postimg.cc/J4BFfdWS/gfs.gif

What does this trend for later on this season? Any Analog years for a potential tropical storm in the MDR in June/Early July?

In this regard, probably 1933 or 2017

[kevin]

I am expecting advisories to be issued soon. Look at the spiral banding. VERY impressive for late june.

https://i.postimg.cc/J4BFfdWS/gfs.gif

What does this trend for later on this season? Any Analog years for a potential tropical storm in the MDR in June/Early July?

Dennis in 2005 comes to mind as well as the Trinitad hurricane in 1933. Also perhaps Bertha in 1996.

[Steve]

All I'm saying is that I better not see even a single Frozen meme for this storm

Only thing I got on Elsa

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am expecting advisories to be issued soon. Look at the spiral banding. VERY impressive for late june.

https://i.postimg.cc/J4BFfdWS/gfs.gif

What does this trend for later on this season? Any Analog years for a potential tropical storm in the MDR in June/Early July?

2005

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.