ATL: FRED - Models

[Cat5James]

The 06z HWRF is ridiculous. No way that intensity is going to pan out.

Its ridiculous for a storm that misses most of Hispanola to intensify in mid August in some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic?

[tolakram]

The reason why the global models have and most likely continue to trend stronger with future Fred is because not only they have been trending it will track just offshore of the northern Cuban coast it will encounter a much less hostile environment in the eastern GOM, the TUTT/ULL that models were originally showing is now no were to be found this weekend near FL.

https://i.imgur.com/2hY2nVM.png

What about the shear in the Bahamas pre-Florida? Wouldn’t the TUTT still prevent “future Fred” from intensifying prior to reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico?

Not if the ULL is in a position to vent the storm. It's a matter of miles IMO. Here's a 300MB loop. Unfortunately I can't find a loop with both 300MB and surface features from weather.us

[tolakram]

This is one of those storms where small track changes and timing are going to make a big difference. If it avoids Cuba and the ULL gets out of the way then we have a Hurricane, otherwise a sloppy TS. Again, my opinion.

[NDG]

There's no way future Fred is going to be this weak in the eastern GOM as the latest 06z GFS shows it to be with this outflow in place, I guarantee you. Throw this run out the window and why its previous 0z run is more realistic.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF 96 Hours... 91 mph, Holy smokes, what a run... NE shift and slight slow down in track speed...

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/CeeQSnv.jpg

06z HWRF 96 Hours... 91 mph, Holy smokes, what a run... NE shift and slight slow down in track speed...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The 06z HWRF is ridiculous. No way that intensity is going to pan out.

Its ridiculous for a storm that misses most of Hispanola to intensify in mid August in some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic?

When it's a small system dealing with 20 knots of shear after interacting with Hispaniola, yes.

Zero model support for that solution. It's an outlier.

[tolakram]

0Z EPS Spread

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://i.imgur.com/CeeQSnv.jpg

06z HWRF 96 Hours... 91 mph, Holy smokes, what a run... NE shift and slight slow down in track speed...

Down to 976mb closing in on SE Florida

Edit- Make that 975mb. Almost at landfall

[tolakram]

6Z GEFS spread

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF 96 Hours... Landfall Homestead/S Miami... 96 mph Cat 2

[toad strangler]

I'm proud of the HWRF for not going to 925 on a run like that

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/O5deHVX.jpg
06z HWRF 96 Hours... Landfall Homestead/S Miami... 96 mph Cat 2

we have to deal with the hwrf, doesnt mean it will be right but its not exactly the xtrp model

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF 108 hours... Turns NNW after S Miami landfall and beginning to recurve... Big NE jump here, HP not as strong?

[SFLcane]

I'm proud of the HWRF for not going to 925 on a run like that

It’s clearly finding a favorable environment which is what I take from this.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF give or take a 10mb reduction in intensity seems a bit more realistic should it mess the islands to the north.

[Shell Mound]

The reason why the global models have and most likely continue to trend stronger with future Fred is because not only they have been trending it will track just offshore of the northern Cuban coast it will encounter a much less hostile environment in the eastern GOM, the TUTT/ULL that models were originally showing is now no were to be found this weekend near FL.

https://i.imgur.com/2hY2nVM.png

What about the shear in the Bahamas pre-Florida? Wouldn’t the TUTT still prevent “future Fred” from intensifying prior to reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico?

Not if the ULL is in a position to vent the storm. It's a matter of miles IMO. Here's a 300MB loop. Unfortunately I can't find a loop with both 300MB and surface features from weather.us

https://i.imgur.com/fK437lW.gif

I’ve highlighted PTC Six’s approximate position on the 06Z HWRF around this time. VWS seems to be relatively low in its immediate vicinity (near Great Inagua).

Nevertheless, the vectors are clearly rather unfavourable for well-established outflow channels, given PTC Six’s relative position to the ULL by that time.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1425046980384804869

[NDG]

One of the main reasons why the 06z HWRF is so strong is because it shows 06L making landfall in the far eastern tip of Hispaniola and quickly move back offshre, thus it strengthens faster.

[BobHarlem]

Can't have a model thread without some prime HWRF example images featuring downtown Miami and Port Miami for the cruisers on a departure day.