ATL: GRACE - Models

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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#241 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:52 pm

Deepening on HWRF again...
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#242 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:54 pm

looked like a failed EWRC caused the weakening on that HWRF.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#243 Postby Keldeo1997 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:55 pm

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1426319343390965770




It looks like short term in intensity is going to play a huge part in TD7's Future. A stronger Storm will have a better shot at resisting the TUTT
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#244 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:56 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:looked like a failed EWRC caused the weakening on that HWRF.

Also probably shear from the TUTT mentioned in the tweet from Anthony M.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#245 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:58 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:looked like a failed EWRC caused the weakening on that HWRF.


Looked to me like increased windshear and dry air intrusion.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#246 Postby Keldeo1997 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:04 pm

aspen wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:looked like a failed EWRC caused the weakening on that HWRF.

Also probably shear from the TUTT mentioned in the tweet from Anthony M.


Image

There's some shear buts it not overwhelming or anything
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#247 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:10 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#248 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:11 pm

And HWRF has a major cane in 5 days.

Easy forecast for the NHC. Either follow the same fate as Fred (or even washout over the Dominican Republic) or become a major hurricane near the Bahamas :roll:
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#249 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:13 pm

Seeing more GEFS support makes me sit up a bit more vs the operational run.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#250 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:31 pm

18z HWRF besides being much farther N than 12z it’s misses islands and much slower which allows 07 to blow up into @Cat 3.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#251 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:42 pm

Somebody needs to let the HWRF know westerly shear awaits. Looks incredibly hostile for this time of year :eek:

18Z GFS loop:
Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#252 Postby Michele B » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:54 pm

Spacecoast wrote:


Those are the GFS ensembles.. Although, the GEPS also show some strong tracks


What is GEPS that you speak of?? This is the first time I've heard of that model.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#253 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:55 pm

Michele B wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:


Those are the GFS ensembles.. Although, the GEPS also show some strong tracks


What is GEPS that you speak of?? This is the first time I've heard of that model.


GEPS= Canadian Ensemble
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#254 Postby Michele B » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:57 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Michele B wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:
Those are the GFS ensembles.. Although, the GEPS also show some strong tracks


What is GEPS that you speak of?? This is the first time I've heard of that model.


GEPS= Canadian Ensemble


TY!!

:wink:
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#255 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:08 pm

18z track density:
Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#256 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:16 pm

Trend north away from islands continues. :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#257 Postby jaxfladude » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:25 pm

Start of a model(s) or more showing a recurve away from the CONUS and Caribbean/Bahamas?
Or not and more serious impacts of the aforementioned?
Last edited by jaxfladude on Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#258 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:27 pm

jaxfladude wrote:Start of a mode(s) or more showing a recurve away from the CONUS and Caribbean/Bahamas?

There is still tons of ridging for that to happen, but we can hope.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#259 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:27 pm

18Z Euro Ensembles a bit more bullish than the 12Z, but not overly so. Appear to be on the southern side of the model consensus

Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#260 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:Somebody needs to let the HWRF know westerly shear awaits. Looks incredibly hostile for this time of year :eek:

18Z GFS loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/XJ73GyWm/gfs-shear-watl-fh0-144.gif


Oh my ... but what if the always-perfect GFS shear forecast is wrong?
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