ATL: IDA - Models

[SoupBone]

12Z GEFS

Way north and more clustered. At 114 though, starting to see some spreading out of the members with many pointing at Texas.

[Steve]

CMC is coming in hot. 84 hours it's moving +/- NW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=84

[catskillfire51]

Notice at the end of the GFS run, whats left gets pushed back west.

[cheezyWXguy]

CMC is coming in hot. 84 hours it's moving +/- NW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=84

It is, and I’m seeing that westward bend at the end that gfs showed. I would not be letting my guard down in houston right now.

[jaguars_22]

I am done with this storm and thinking where it could end up. It does look to be forming as we speak. Here on the central Texas coast each run keeps us safe here. I don’t expect any more western shifts maybe more eastern! My final landfall is New Orleans and that’s just a guess. Models are sniffing our Louisiana and I pray for you guys!!!

[tolakram]

Notice at the end of the GFS run, whats left gets pushed back west.

What's left of the center will go with the lower level flow after it decouples. Not sure we can read anything into that.

[SoupBone]

CMC is coming in hot. 84 hours it's moving +/- NW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=84

It is, and I’m seeing that westward bend at the end that gfs showed. I would not be letting my guard down in houston right now.

If you were to take the GFS, CMC, etc. at their word right now, and that hard hook doesn't happen, Galveston and Houston would be in trouble.

[Kohlecane]

Patiently waiting for the Euro

[Steve]

CMC is coming in hot. 84 hours it's moving +/- NW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=84

It is, and I’m seeing that westward bend at the end that gfs showed. I would not be letting my guard down in houston right now.

If you were to take the GFS, CMC, etc. at their word right now, and that hard hook doesn't happen, Galveston and Houston would be in trouble.

yeah, but see T''s post. That could be lower level leftovers.

[tolakram]

CMC landfall

[Nederlander]

Both the GFS and Euro operational runs favor a more eastern landfall in LA, while the majority of ensembles are more western in TX.

[ROCK]

Patiently waiting for the Euro

12Z Euro will solve everything!!

[Kohlecane]

Also wonder why such a big difference in strength on CMC, assuming speed?

[SoupBone]

So the GEFS ensembles make this clear as mud...

[Kohlecane]

Patiently waiting for the Euro

12Z Euro will solve everything!!

Being in the Military I have weird shifts and see these models all at different times, at this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see the panhandle in play come tomorrow 6Z, and I'm trying to look around and figure out how much affect in the steering that Broad low moving W through SFL/straits will have

[Kohlecane]

So the GEFS ensembles make this clear as mud...

https://i.imgur.com/KJG4ZLB.png

BOC watch out!!

[tolakram]

HWRF seems to be tracking 99L this time.

[jasons2k]

So the GEFS ensembles make this clear as mud...

That’s still weighted to the left. Next operational may swing back west.

[ROCK]

Patiently waiting for the Euro

12Z Euro will solve everything!!

Being in the Military I have weird shifts and see these models all at different times, at this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see the panhandle in play come tomorrow 6Z, and I'm trying to look around and figure out how much affect in the steering that Broad low moving W through SFL/straits will have

Oh I get it...it was the ensembles that got me second guessing any models right now.

[Kazmit]

Scary how similar the 12z GFS landfall is to Laura. Similar intensity, and 369 days later.