ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/UpDgzAJ.jpg

Last few frames almost looks like a just S of due W...

[grapealcoholic]

Sort of looks like that small initial eye is embedded in a broader eye. Would mean the smaller one rotates cyclonically around, giving it some S movement

[abajan]

[floridasun78]

starting look like classic hurr i bet 11pm will be hurr

[abajan]

starting look like classic hurr i bet 11pm will be hurr

It will likely be a hurricane within the next couple of hours.

[Yellow Evan]

[weeniepatrol]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/882742396960530452/93a7bb1cc1d90ac0c6beba806abde213535ec034967683e0d88a588118b1b8fe.png

[ouragans]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/882742396960530452/93a7bb1cc1d90ac0c6beba806abde213535ec034967683e0d88a588118b1b8fe.png

Definitely already a cat.1. Best Track will certainly be at least 70 kts

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Larry gulping a big slug of drier air, maybe this is what leads to that giant eye we have seen in the modeling.

[aspen]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12L&product=vis-swir

Larry gulping a big slug of drier air, maybe this is what leads to that giant eye we have seen in the modeling.

A big hot tower just went off over the LLC. Also, it looks to be heading WSW instead of due W.

[ThetaE]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12L&product=vis-swir

Larry gulping a big slug of drier air, maybe this is what leads to that giant eye we have seen in the modeling.

On the contrary, MIMIC-TPW2 shows Larry is still incredibly well-insulated in the moist ITCZ environment:



Not every lack of convection is dry air working its way in from the outside! That said, a dry air intrusion could become a problem down the road for Larry. Note the pocket of low TPW sinking south around 30N 35W? The HWRF, for instance, shows only modest intensification that stalls from days 2-4 as Larry gains some northward movement and this drier airmass wraps around the circulation.



This happens at the same time that Larry crosses over the coolest SSTs on its journey ahead (26-27C). At this juncture, Larry might handle the dry air poorly and plateau or weaken, or Larry might complete a transition to an annular hurricane as the dry air/cool SSTs suppress banding features outside Larry's core. The difference between those outcomes likely has to do with the intensity, orientation, and depth of wind shear Larry will be dealing with.

Also worth noting that continued SW trends would keep Larry further from this dry air and over warmer SSTs.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1433204932971220992

[CyclonicFury]

ASCAT likely missed the strongest winds (with max winds near 40-45 knots on this pass) with a developing inner core, but NHC likely won't call it a hurricane tonight because of this.

[msbee]

Should I be worried about this storm?

[Blown Away]

Should I be worried about this storm?

Not yet, pretty much every model shows missing NE Caribbean, but the same models keep shifting SW each run. Gotta watch IMO.

[gatorcane]

If Larry does indeed intensify like the NHC is showing, chances are it should find a weakness and recurve without threatening the islands.

[RL3AO]

These storms seem to find Bermuda insanely often lately.

[gatorcane]

These storms seem to find Bermuda insanely often lately.

Pretty amazing how an island so small, a spec in the ocean can attract so many storms.

[cycloneye]

Should I be worried about this storm?

Hi Barbara. Watch it but all indications that will move well NE of the NE Caribbean Islands unless something big unexpected happens and moves very close.

[toad strangler]

These storms seem to find Bermuda insanely often lately.

Location, location, location.

Bermuda sits in a PRIME SPOT for climo recurving Atlantic Basin storms. The island literally resides on top of a climo track SUPER HIGHWAY.