ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

Can you show us what you’re seeing? I’m seeing a more dominant center much further north on satellite. There’s no way you don’t see that...

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[MBryant]

For some reason I feel like with the center reformations and improved organization that this could still be a Golden Triangle/SWLA storm. And that would be most unfortunate.

I've had enough. We need a year off.

[HurricaneBrain]

Matt is that you?

For some reason I feel like with the center reformations and improved organization that this could still be a Golden Triangle/SWLA storm. And that would be most unfortunate.

I've had enough. We need a year off.

[NDG]

I'd expect a quick center reformation under that deep convection

It already did 3 hours ago.

[La Breeze]

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

I'm no meteorologist, but I'm just wondering how Nicholas could shift to the west at this time... I am confused, I suppose.

[wxman57]

Yep, NHC adjusted their track westward, as expected.

[abajan]

Disco mentions an apparent center reformation farther north.

[wxman57]

Can you show us what you’re seeing? I’m seeing a more dominant center much further north on satellite. There’s no way you don’t see that...

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

Look at a high-res visible loop, maybe on the College of DuPage website mesoscale image. Low-level cloud motion points to a center very near where NHC has it at 4pm.

[wxman57]

Disco mentions an apparent center reformation farther north.

Yeah, that was clear from recon this morning (2 centers). New NHC track took that into consideration, and that's where the consensus model initialized. What it does mean is that the new consensus is about 12 hrs ahead of this morning's NHC forecast. I'll check the new timeline now...

[HurricaneBrain]

Track shift west as expected. After new GFS run @ 5:00 initializes the new center correctly, cone will shift back east, IMO.

I think we have a new center that is much further north. Cone might shift west in alignment with model guidance but latest models have the center initialized much further south than the new CoC I’m seeing on satellite.

[NDG]

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

I am confident the new recon that just took off will find that the LLC is near the deep convection as seen on satellite and radar for the past 2-3 hours.

[HurricaneBrain]

Thank you sir, you’re the best in the biz. I slightly disagree with you though.

Can you show us what you’re seeing? I’m seeing a more dominant center much further north on satellite. There’s no way you don’t see that...

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

Look at a high-res visible loop, maybe on the College of DuPage website mesoscale image. Low-level cloud motion points to a center very near where NHC has it at 4pm.

[grapealcoholic]

It would be silly for the center to not be near the deep convection. The physics aren't that complicated here

[IcyTundra]

NHC seems to be leaning more towards the GFS solution as they are mentioning possible strengthening to cat 1 status and how the GFS has been the most consistent model in the discussion.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane watches up now. If this tracks on the eastern half of the cone, I think this has a solid chance of becoming a hurricane. West side of the cone will have land interaction and it probably won't become one. Rain will be bad either way but a track a tad further east will likely result in more of a wind threat.

[SoupBone]

Hurricane watches up now. If this tracks on the eastern half of the cone, I think this has a solid chance of becoming a hurricane. West side of the cone will have land interaction and it probably won't become one. Rain will be bad either way but a track a tad further east will likely result in more of a wind threat.

On the eastern side of the guidance would bring SWLA back into the mix again, not necessarily for a landfall, but for some of the extreme rain.

[wxman57]

NHC really sped up the forecast. Landfall west of Matagorda Bay 1am Tuesday. Consensus now at 6pm Monday for landfall there.

[MBryant]

Matt is that you?

For some reason I feel like with the center reformations and improved organization that this could still be a Golden Triangle/SWLA storm. And that would be most unfortunate.

I've had enough. We need a year off.

No. Marshall

[grapealcoholic]

Curved lightning with this new tower