ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

1004-1005mb lol this is even more disorganized IR can be deceiving. Give it a few hours it will poof again

Yeah Convective Cloud Covers do that. I believe Kammuri in the pacific had a massive blow up with its CCC like -108C or something like that.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Just because convection expanded fast and there are very cold cloud tops does not mean there is a CCC. CCC is quite rare

Ccc often come before the CDO. they are not rare.

No, they are rare and often mistaken for CDO. This is a CDO not CCC https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0.co_2.xml

I respectfully disagree

[Cat5James]

HWRF shows pressure rising between 9-12 pm and guess what, it doesnt go *poof*.... the overreaction to everything is amazing.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Cloud tops just got even colder. Might be approaching -100c now

[eastcoastFL]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1411325587055124480




Not sure how to embed a tweet but it’s a pretty cool gif of the convection blow up

[AveryTheComrade]

1004-1005mb lol this is even more disorganized IR can be deceiving. Give it a few hours it will poof again

There's almost nothing in its way anymore, especially if it avoids tracking over Cuba which seems likely. More likely that in a few hours it'll have built some structure and be running up the intensity again.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1411325587055124480?s=20

Not sure how to embed a tweet but it’s a pretty cool gif of the convection blow up

 http://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1411325587055124480

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411502978679201795

And there is Levi to bring levity to the moment right on cue

Reminds me of Sally last year, massive CDO from convection but barely intensified...

[aspen]

HWRF shows pressure rising between 9-12 pm and guess what, it doesnt go *poof*.... the overreaction to everything is amazing.

The 18z HWRF also predicted this huge blowup of convection before it even started.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411502978679201795

And there is Levi to bring levity to the moment right on cue

Reminds me of Sally last year, massive CDO from convection but barely intensified...

30mph increase in 6hours, barely intensified

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hwrf doing a good job in 12 hour range on structure

[GCANE]

Those three towers did a good job heating the core.
Good rotation now on IR.
Lightning consistently firing off.
AMSU analysis of satellite soundings, about hour and half ago, showing center of warm core at about 250mb.
Pretty much right over the LLC.
Cold boundary layer implying strong lapse rate.
Should continue to do well in the open water.
Lots of convective debris to work with.

[Hammy]

Are we only getting one center pass?

[Nuno]

Are we only getting one center pass?

Yep. AF issues...

[skyline385]

And there is Levi to bring levity to the moment right on cue

Reminds me of Sally last year, massive CDO from convection but barely intensified...

30mph increase in 6hours, barely intensified

Not sure which timeframe you are cherry picking but Sally started stalling around 90-100 mph, then it went to make landfall at 105 mph with some fluctuations in speed almost 48 hours later. It had a massive CDO during most of the stall duration...

[GCANE]

Seeing gravity waves on IR.
Don't see that too often.
Sign of strong intensification.

[SFLcane]

Just putting on a nice 4th of July show but nothing under the hood. Not much to see here

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1411506776365797377

[NDG]

1004-1005mb lol this is even more disorganized IR can be deceiving. Give it a few hours it will poof again

I don't see that happening, even the Euro shows it deepening during the night.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The hurricane hunters fix on Elsa was about 18 miles due south of the 8 PM advisory. That's also pretty significant to consider, as this storm is moving WNW at 23mph. The LLC is rotating around something.

[toad strangler]

Post #2476 & #2477 are S2K at its best

Total oppo haha ..... I agree with Hazelton BTW. Also earlier highlighted by Mr. Cowan.