ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1411503922460639232

[GCANE]

Didn't make the turn yet.
LLC getting nudged by the warm core.
Good sign of getting stacked.

[skyline385]

The hurricane hunters fix on Elsa was about 18 miles due south of the 8 PM advisory. That's also pretty significant to consider, as this storm is moving WNW at 23mph. The LLC is rotating around something.

Is it me or the current center matches exactly with the last HWRF run?

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1411503922460639232

Good point, tropopause is relatively low this time of year.

[tolakram]

Are we only getting one center pass?

Yep. AF issues...

It's doing another pass. Where did you hear it had issues?

[loon]

https://i.imgur.com/BNjq5na.png

wow she is looking more impressive each frame. definitely appears to be threading the islands, for now.

EDIT: welp, an IT career and almost 20 years on this site and I've still never been able to attach an image in any fashion lol... ah well.

You used URL tags instead of IMG tags. I changed it, works fine.

AH HA, wow thanks.. I truly am an idiot hahah.

[StPeteMike]

Been reading the old Tropical Storm Dennis 2005 thread the past 10 minutes, this was when they would lock a TS thread once a storm becomes a hurricane. It’s interesting that Dennis was looking not it’s best while almost in the same position… then started ramping up after getting west of Hispaniola.

Obviously the two aren’t the same and surrounded environment are different today than July 6 2005, but it’s crazy to see how things could change so quickly.

[abajan]

Recon is so far behind im not sure it will matter much to Barbados...will mostly help the rest of the windwards. Good thing its moving so fast if this was going lets say 19 mph most likely wouldve been a Hurricane by now

I suspect it was already a hurricane a couple hours before the official upgrade. The post-season analysis will probably show this. Just a hunch.

[AxaltaRacing24]

FWIW the HWRF and HMON showed this pressure increase. What they also show is the storm becoming at least a cat 1 again. In my opinion, we are jumping the gun by saying it will "poof" or that it is struggling.

[Hammy]

The hurricane hunters fix on Elsa was about 18 miles due south of the 8 PM advisory. That's also pretty significant to consider, as this storm is moving WNW at 23mph. The LLC is rotating around something.

That seems consistent with the old LLC they were tracking earlier completely dissipating and another center forming.

[GCANE]

The hurricane hunters fix on Elsa was about 18 miles due south of the 8 PM advisory. That's also pretty significant to consider, as this storm is moving WNW at 23mph. The LLC is rotating around something.

Its stacking with the warm core

[NDG]

Recon back up to 10k feet, might go through the deep convection this time around.

21530 1844N 07615W 6965 03224 0139 +091 -005 070011 011 026 000 00

[GCANE]

They are still flying at 700mb

[InfernoFlameCat]

Beginning to wonder, could Elsa go SOUTH of Jamaica? Probably not but it’s a possibility now

[ElectricStorm]

I believe so

So far it fits the bill — singular blob of convection with a central point, ridiculously cold cloud tops at that point, and a fractured or disorganized core of some kind. We’ll know more of what the heck the LLC is up to during the next pass.

Just because convection expanded fast and there are very cold cloud tops does not mean there is a CCC. CCC is quite rare

Yeah like I said I'm not great at identifying CCC's. Either way I still expect this to regain Cat 1 before Cuba

[eastcoastFL]

Cuban radar

[Hurricane Mike]

One thing that is obvious is that Elsa seems to have slowed down significantly.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone have a take on the timing of the trough moving in to weaken the ridge?

[eastcoastFL]

Jamaica is about to get hit by some big storms

[Jr0d]

Coming into view of Gitmo's radar too.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate ... =CMaxZH240

It might get disrupted by Jamaica given the current track.