ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Not anything impressive with this one but you can't really expect much more than this for June. It'll be a close call on whether it can become a TD/TS before landfall but I think it will get there.

[JW-_-]

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2021061812, , BEST, 0, 259N, 915W, 30, 1007, LO

[wxman57]

Nothing from recon since 30 min ago. May be a broad, weak swirl west of the convection near 26.5N / 91.6W. I think the plane could find some 35 kt winds in those squalls, but such winds are not circulating around any center.

[Stormcenter]

IMO getting much better organized with every passing hour.

[aspen]

Nothing from recon since 30 min ago. May be a broad, weak swirl west of the convection near 26.5N / 91.6W. I think the plane could find some 35 kt winds in those squalls, but such winds are not circulating around any center.

Air Force recon transmission issues have returned to be a pain once again. I really hope we don’t see a repeat of Eta’s situation sometime this season.

[Yellow Evan]

Closed circulation is probably present, and deep convection coverage has increased since yesterday. This might be classifiable now.

[wxman57]

Closed circulation is probably present, and deep convection coverage has increased since yesterday. This might be classifiable now.

I'm trying to find an LLC on the high-res mesoscale loop at College of DuPage. I can see a trof axis, but no circulation. Would help if recon would report.

[wxman57]

Finally, a recon report. A broad, weak swirl around 26N/91.2W. 0-5 kts over a large area. No difference from yesterday afternoon.

[JW-_-]

Pretty much be gales anywhere there's convection in the gom. Needs this within radar range to sort out.

[wxman57]

Less than 10kt winds from 27.4N to 25.4N. Nothing outside of that convection, as far as wind.

[Steve]

IMO getting much better organized with every passing hour.

It sort of does. Storms are firing east and northeast of the general center. We have about 12-16 hours left until the center reaches the coast. It could make a run for TS (40 or so) as the 7:00am advisory notes sustained to 35 which is pretty much depression-level. I'd say it's 60/40 that it gets classified to TS at some point this afternoon. 06z mesoscale models like a last run at tightening right at landfall, so I'm going with them.

[MississippiWx]

Finally, a recon report. A broad, weak swirl around 26N/91.2W. 0-5 kts over a large area. No difference from yesterday afternoon.

I’d argue it’s much less broad than yesterday which isn’t saying much. Seems to be improving by each frame. Convective organization is much more concentrated which helps as well in tightening the circulation. Minimal tropical storm still looks reasonable, but doesn’t matter other than adding a number to the list.

[wxman57]

Finally, a recon report. A broad, weak swirl around 26N/91.2W. 0-5 kts over a large area. No difference from yesterday afternoon.

I’d argue it’s much less broad than yesterday which isn’t saying much. Seems to be improving by each frame. Convective organization is much more concentrated which helps as well in tightening the circulation. Minimal tropical storm still looks reasonable, but doesn’t matter other than adding a number to the list.

My forecast has it a TS this evening, but mostly due to straight-line winds in squalls well east of the center. Nothing circulating around the center.

[JW-_-]

Those 30kts on the image just above. the 24N line is where i thought the SW side of the vort was @ the time of the pass.



the earlier pass had 30kt gales to SW of the mess.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1405880871132045317

[tailgater]

Less than 10kt winds from 27.4N to 25.4N. Nothing outside of that convection, as far as wind.

Maybe something north of where they are looking now 27.5N 91W or maybe it never closes off.

[Yellow Evan]

Per recon this is technically closed, so with that and the slow improvement in organization, I think this barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone.

[wxman57]

Per recon this is technically closed, so with that and the slow improvement in organization, I think this barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone.

I don't think that a west wind of a few mph within a broad area of light winds over 100 miles across really qualifies as a "well-defined" low-level center. I would call it a disturbance until it has a tight center. Doesn't matter as far as impacts. The squalls could produce some straight-line winds to 40 mph, and they'll produce 6-8 inches of rain regardless of how this system is classified. We'll know in a few minutes if the NHC has seen enough to call it a depression. Certainly, no evidence of TS winds from recon. I'm seeing a couple 25-30 kt winds in the squalls well NE of the weak swirls.

[Steve]

Some dark grey clouds to the south here in Pensacola. Looks like the first little bit is coming up and through, then we'll have a break. It's the eastern edge of the band that went through New Orleans an hour or so ago. SELA and southern MS look to have the rainfall bullseyes on them based on current rotation.
https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_ ... J1ZX0%3D#/

There's some rain. Also, look at the true color zoom-out from TT. Convection is blowing up in a banding style just east of 90W.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor