ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Within my opinion this is a depression. I'd be shocked if the nhc doesn't start advisories at 5pm est.

I think this is not a depression, I think it is already or extremely close to being a tropical storm. The Ascat pass showed some 35knot winds in there.

[psyclone]

The GFS depiction looks like Dennis (05) with a displacement a bit more to the east. Formation attempts out that way this early in the season sound alarm bells in my mind. If we end up with a hyperactive season we will be able to look back and say this was a warning. If not, we got a false alarm. Time will tell but it sure is interesting watching at a time when we should be very bored..

[Sciencerocks]

Within my opinion this is a depression. I'd be shocked if the nhc doesn't start advisories at 5pm est.

I think this is not a depression, I think it is already or extremely close to being a tropical storm. The Ascat pass showed some 35knot winds in there.

I am being conservative. There's no question with the banding features and appearance that those ascat readings are accurate. The nhc of course is going to always side on the conservative side.

[Kazmit]

With its appearance on satellite you'd think that this is from September or at least from another basin. It's rare to see something that looks this good in the Atlantic in June.

[aspen]

Up to 70/90 and the NHC says that PTC advisories will likely be initiated. If it’s confirmed that this does have a defined LLC, it could go straight to TS Elsa. If not, it’ll be PTC-5.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nhc puts 70/90 on 97L

[SouthDadeFish]

I would imagine the NHC has to be considering hurricane watches for portions of the Antilles considering the latest trends.

[TallyTracker]

I would imagine the NHC has to be considering hurricane watches for portions of the Antilles considering the latest trends.

Don’t the local governments decide what watches and warnings to hoist? Does the NHC advise them on it? Not 100% sure how that all works with foreign governments.

[Shell Mound]

Given the incoming surge of dry air, combined with evident entrainment in the northern semicircle, I think the odds of 97L being a hurricane as it passes through the Lesser Antilles are quite small. Despite vigorous low-level inflow and vorticity, the system is clearly being impacted by SAL from the north and east. The nascent LLC is already being exposed to the west-northwest of the main convective mass, so the mid- and low-level circulations are not aligning properly, owing to easterly shear. I still think that the GFS and HWRF are too bullish within the next two and a half days. Nevertheless, I think Elsa is becoming more likely than I originally expected.

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1410293440592687104

[SouthDadeFish]

I would imagine the NHC has to be considering hurricane watches for portions of the Antilles considering the latest trends.

Don’t the local governments decide what watches and warnings to hoist? Does the NHC advise them on it? Not 100% sure how that all works with foreign governments.

That is my understanding. I meant they would be the ones recommending it, but good point about the clarification.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The dry air being entrained is in fact, not that dry. Also because the system 97L is inside a monsoon trough it is surrounded by a copious amount of moisture plus whatever 95L had to give. I do not think this system will become a hurricane while east of the Caribbean however it is not unlikely. I think there is an above 50 chance it becomes a hurricane whilst in the Caribbean once it pulls away from those easterlies and can really pull together a CDO of which to intensify on.

[BYG Jacob]

The dry air being entrained is in fact, not that dry. Also because the system 97L is inside a monsoon trough it is surrounded by a copious amount of moisture plus whatever 95L had to give. I do not think this system will become a hurricane while east of the Caribbean however it is not unlikely. I think there is an above 50 chance it becomes a hurricane whilst in the Caribbean once it pulls away from those easterlies and can really pull together a CDO of which to intensify on.

It will also have deep moisture to suck in from South America.

[MississippiWx]

I would imagine the NHC has to be considering hurricane watches for portions of the Antilles considering the latest trends.

I’m beginning to think this will have to become a hurricane before it gets designated. Sheesh.

Amazing to see this well organized of a system this time of the year in the Central Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

What's for sure are two things: the displaced TUTT that would have otherwise shredded any ECAR systems at this time of the season as well as the decently low latitude (almost near the northern coastline of S. America!) that 97L is traveling in are things that I never expected this year to have. Heck, when was the last time this kind of at least similar pattern was present at around the same timeframe? 2005?

[captainbarbossa19]

What's for sure are two things: the displaced TUTT that would have otherwise shredded any ECAR systems at this time of the season as well as the decently low latitude (almost near the northern coastline of S. America!) that 97L is traveling in are things that I never expected this year to have. Heck, when was the last time this kind of at least similar pattern was present at around the same timeframe? 2005?

The pattern does seem similar. I do not like how trends are going right now with this season.

[Steve]

looks like a burst of convection near the center. I haven't looked at it on IR, but when those show up on visible, it's probably going to show up on IR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[BYG Jacob]

looks like a burst of convection near the center. I haven't looked at it on IR, but when those show up on visible, it's probably going to show up on IR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Gravity waves coming off that burst. Whew

[aspen]

This looks like a newly developed TC. I hope the NHC does decide to upgrade it and not go with a PTC, because I’ve never seen a potential tropical cyclone looking this good upon its first advisory.

[Category5Kaiju]

What's for sure are two things: the displaced TUTT that would have otherwise shredded any ECAR systems at this time of the season as well as the decently low latitude (almost near the northern coastline of S. America!) that 97L is traveling in are things that I never expected this year to have. Heck, when was the last time this kind of at least similar pattern was present at around the same timeframe? 2005?

The pattern does seem similar. I do not like how trends are going right now with this season.

Also it's worth mentioning the Gulf Loop Current. At least based on recent UOHC profiles, it seems to very apparent compared to its surroundings this year. This could be rocket fuel for any storms that go over it under otherwise the right conditions if I am correct, like we saw this with storms like Opal, Katrina, Ivan, and Rita.

[TJRE]

COD MET FLOATER
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