EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like a Cat 4 to me. Hopefully it gets the upgrade.

[cycloneye]

SSD folks not enthusiastic to go higher.

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 16/1730Z

C. 15.0N

D. 122.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF 5.5
AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5. THE MET IS 5.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES AT 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Yellow Evan]

This is surrounded by B. Not sure what SAB is looking at.

[aspen]

SSD folks not enthusiastic to go higher.

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 16/1730Z

C. 15.0N

D. 122.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF 5.5
AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5. THE MET IS 5.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES AT 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

Sigh…of course we get a bad SAB fix when I posted about hoping for a good one less than half an hour ago.

[Yellow Evan]

SSD folks not enthusiastic to go higher.

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 16/1730Z

C. 15.0N

D. 122.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF 5.5
AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5. THE MET IS 5.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES AT 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

Sigh…of course we get a bad SAB fix when I posted about hoping for a good one less than half an hour ago.

This may be why. B ring incomplete here.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'm a big fan of annular hurricanes so I'm pretty giddy right now, lol

[Kingarabian]

NHC BT up to 115kts

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2021 Time : 182032 UTC
Lat : 14:56:23 N Lon : 122:07:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 957.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -53.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Dry air incoming. Not likely to affect this storm much with this structure though.

[cycloneye]

NHC BT up to 115kts

EP, 06, 2021071618, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1220W, 115, 955, HU

[InfernoFlameCat]

That burst probably did it. The cloudtops were slowly warming but a new pulse of convection put it back up to a black ring.

[Yellow Evan]

B ring re-thickening. Solid T6.0.

[Stormybajan]

NHC BT up to 115kts

EP, 06, 2021071618, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1220W, 115, 955, HU

Finally! It been a cat 4 most likely for the past 6 hours

[InfernoFlameCat]

Felicia getting stronger than I expected. Still strengthening. If a W ring is achieved it could reach 150mph.

[cycloneye]

Even thou Best Track has 115kts, I dont fell confortable until the advisory is out because something may happen on the downside in the hour before it comes out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like things are still getting better Cycloneye so I think we are good here with a cat 4 at the advisory. Also its much more difficult for an annular hurricane to degrade suddenly than a system like Delta. I am expecting 115-120 knots in the next discussion.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa has a pinwheel eye in the latest frame.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Kingarabian]

Elsa has a pinwheel eye in the latest frame.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Pinhole eyes are much smaller than that.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa has a pinwheel eye in the latest frame.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Pinhole eyes are much smaller than that.

Pinwheel eye not pinhole

[Kingarabian]

NHC probably decided its worth the 115kts regardless of the fluctuating cloud temps, because this AMSR2 pass showed a pretty intense eyewall, typically found in higher end hurricanes.