ATL: FRED - Models

[Blown Away]

One of the main reasons why the 06z HWRF is so strong is because it shows 06L making landfall in the far eastern tip of Hispaniola and quickly move back offshre, thus it strengthens faster.

It's that simple, so any N adjustments over next 36 hours may play big down the road.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF...

[Shell Mound]

One of the main reasons why the 06z HWRF is so strong is because it shows 06L making landfall in the far eastern tip of Hispaniola and quickly move back offshre, thus it strengthens faster.

I still think its intensity over the Bahamas is far too high, given the UL wind fields on the ECMWF at that time. If the ULL were positioned southwest rather than northwest of PTC Six at that time, it would certainly support intensification similar to that which the HWRF indicates, but instead PTC Six is going to be sited in a col between an UL anticyclone to its east and the ULL over Florida. This would impart net southerly and westerly shear over the system. Even if VWS remains rather low over the centre, the orientation of the wind vectors with height would not allow PTC Six to establish outflow channels prior to reaching the eastern GoM. So at most I would expect a low-end TS by the time it makes its closest approach to the Miami metropolitan area and the Keys.

[jlauderdal]

Can't have a model thread without some prime HWRF example images featuring downtown Miami and Port Miami for the cruisers on a departure day.

https://i.imgur.com/VHdH6hi.png

My roof has been torn off at least 10 different times by the hwrf and gfs. Roof is still there, never had roof damage even in Wilma. One of these times but dont think its this one, enough ridging in place for gulf action.

[jlauderdal]

One of the main reasons why the 06z HWRF is so strong is because it shows 06L making landfall in the far eastern tip of Hispaniola and quickly move back offshre, thus it strengthens faster.

Aanother 10-20 mb reduction just because its the HWRF regardless of the track its taking.

[SootyTern]

complex uncertain forecast+ skin in the game= very interesting week for tracking

[Hurricane Mike]

That HWRF puts a 973 mb hurricane over Biscayne Bay.

[BobHarlem]

12z early models

[robbielyn]

[Youtube][/Youtube]

I'm proud of the HWRF for not going to 925 on a run like that

Either that or it's really going to be a weak system.

[AlphaToOmega]

We often discuss how bullish the HWRF is, but there is no discussion of this

[Blown Away]

06z NAVGEM...

[tolakram]

NAVGEM has never been wrong .. wait, right.

[NDG]

Close look at 06z Euro Ensembles.

[tolakram]

6Z Euro

[AlphaToOmega]

There is very little dry air in the Atlantic as of now. That is not going to be a factor in the development of PTC 06L.

[tolakram]

There is very little dry air in the Atlantic as of now. That is not going to be a factor in the development of PTC 06L.
https://i.postimg.cc/Znd6hJcR/image.png

No dust maybe, but plenty of dry air. Watch the low and mid level WV loops.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-10-48-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[chaser1]

[url][/url]

I'm proud of the HWRF for not going to 925 on a run like that

Either that or it's really going to be a weak system.

That's too funny Toad Could more or less hover right around 999mb while tracking over the Keys, but then bomb out once pushing NW into the E. GOM?

Is it just me or does it seem that lately we're seeing more Tropical Cyclones playing the Mountainous region - Death March game, just to find a sweet spot to squeeze on by and re-intensify thereafter. Seems like back in the day, Hispaniola had largely acted like the Roach Motel. Hurricane's checked in, but seldom checked out LOL.

[SFLcane]

Big shift north in 12z Icon

[BobHarlem]

Icon very large shift right (Prior run went through the Keys into the Gulf offshore the W Fl coast), also notable the wave entering from the east.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS init